CASIL NOTES - April Newsletter

CASIL NOTES

 - COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –

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ISSUE 13: APRIL 2026

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CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large.  The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the “Event” with a “Summary” as to possible implications.

!!!!!!   OUR 1 YEAR NEWSLETTER  ANNIVERSARY. !!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU FOR FOLLOWING US  !!!!!

MONTHLY SUMMARY: We open April with continued major (and escalated) fighting in the Middle East. In February, we asked “What’s Next?”, and the answer is happening now. The United States and Israel initiated airstrikes against Iran on 28 February. This is likely the largest U.S. military operation in the Middle East since fighting ISIS in the early 2010’s and our invasion of Iraq in 2003.  This newsletter will break with tradition and cover aspects of the war looking forward. As there are still many events happening around the world, we will cover (albeit BRIEFLY) those we highlighted throughout the past several months, continue. This argues for a continued “strategic approach/awareness”.  We should maintain awareness of the Ukraine-Russia War and fledgling talks (no progress); China’s continued assertiveness and new conflicts breaking out in our areas of interests.

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 United States and Israel Attack Iran

Event: On 28 February, the U.S. and Israel began attacks across Iran.  Early strikes focused on taking out key leadership targets.  The Iranian Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) was killed in the first wave of strikes.  Also killed were several senior Iranian leaders including heads of the IRGC and the Iranian military.  Other strikes focused on the missile and drone locations to help reduce the Iranian counterattacks.  The attack focus has remained the same as more Islamic Regime leaders have been eliminated.

Iran has launched thousands of ballistic missiles and attack drones/UAVs at our bases, Israel and an overwhelmingly surprising number against the Arab states.  Iran is trying to turn this into an economic fight by attacking the oil infrastructure and civilian targets across the region.  We assessed the Houthis would enter the fight and they did at the end of March.  Remember them from the Israel-Hamas war?  This could be the opening of a new dimension in this fight – both economically and militarily.

The more pressure it can put on those countries and the global economy, the more it feels there will be enough pressure on the U.S. and Israel to stop their attacks.  Is that working?  Yes and no.  The pressure is mounting, but the attacks are not stopping.

We stated last month this operation could last up to several weeks.   In UPDATING our assessment – after one month of fighting, we assess this could go another full month or two.  Why do we assess that?  

As we enter April, there is significant talk of escalation and the use of U.S. ground forces. We do not foresee a massive ground invasion of Iran as we had in 2003 in Iraq.  No, these forces, IF employed, would be more along the lines of “raid” forces to seize small limited objectives, or secure that “missing” 60% enriched uranium.  Other possible objectives (get a map) include: 2) certain coastal objectives that give Iran control over the SoH; 3) small islands in S. PG to stop attacks on shipping – these include (but not limited to) Abu Musa, Tumb Islands (Greater and Lesser Tumb), Sirri Island and then Qeshm Island (but this is a larger Island than you realize).  There is a great deal of discussion on taking Kharg Island (Iran’s primary oil shipment site [90%]).  The military advantage of taking that is limited – in our opinion.

FOR CURRENT AND MORE DETAILED information on the fighting and probabilities, please refer to the Special Edition Newsletter we published on 18 February.  Also refer to current news interviews (28 Feb and 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 14, 21 and 28  March.  All posted on the CASIL Website). 

As with all major crises, there are sides lining up to support or oppose.  Our mission is not to tell you which way to lean, however it is TOO LATE – it is an academic argument to make you feel better. If you want to argue the right/wrong of the fight, relegate that to history class, the living room or bar talk.  The focus now should be on the best outcome for the United States and the safety of our forces.

 We are in the fight and now we must push this to a conclusion that benefits our national interests, our security and the security for the region.  You can also see that the vast ranging economic impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure/control by Iran is having.  That must be eliminated. 

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Summary: As we enter April, there is a lot of discussion about cease-fire talks.  Will they or won’t they take place? Only time, and a continued strong military campaign will push Iran to negotiate. Therefore, there are dangerous times ahead. There will continue to be increased attacks and counterattacks in the coming weeks.  As a veteran of two wars in this region, I would prefer to see a diplomatic solution – always will prefer that.  This operation WILL LAST for weeks longer.

As we stated, we are in the fight and now must finish it. Here are a few notes on how this can/should end:

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-        The Islamic Regime needs to recognize it is in a "no win position at this time".  Unfortunately, it is not there yet‍ ‍

-        Need to think at the Strategic, Operational and Tactical Levels of War and Diplomacy:

o    Tactically we are doing GREAT and militarily succeeding

o   Operationally, I would say we’re doing great with a caveat; Iran trying to spread this fight across the region and even outside the region

§  Having trouble with the SoH and economic impacts

-        Strategic awareness is the issue. We can LOSE the strategic outcome. You probably do not like seeing that.  That’s why we must now finish this and

o   Eliminate current and future Iranian destabilization threats to U.S., Israel, the Arab States

o   Eliminate the economic chokehold Iran has via threats (now and future) on the vital SoH that negatively impact the region, the world and the U.S.  This is not the first time Iran has done this economic blackmail.

o   Degrade/destroy the ballistic missile and drone capacity to the point Iran can not continue to create the problem

o   Eliminate all elements of Iran’s nuclear weapons program

o   The common denominator for the past 47 years is the Islamic Regime.  All negative events stem from them.  If they remain in place, then all the above points will likely only be temporary – at best.‍ ‍

§  Create the conditions for some opening for the people to have a chance to rise up against this theocratic and draconian regime.

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-     We can win militarily, but we can lose the more vital Strategic war and peace if we end this prematurely or with unfinished business.

War is not clean and neat.  Do not expect it to be.  Neither is ending a war neat and easy.  No matter how successful we will be militarily, expect some chaos after the bombs stop falling.

REMAIN VIGILANT.  The U.S. and its interests worldwide are not out of a threat.  There are potential sleeper cells in the U.S., Europe and other Middle East countries.  We must be EVER-VIGILANT!

-SEE SOMETHING; SAY SOMETHING -

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NOW ON TO THE RUGLAR NEWSLETTER

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PRC (China)

Event: China remains as a major strategic threat to the U.S. national security.  You can believe China is studying the fight against Iran with front-row interest in see how we employ our warfighting capabilities.  Determine the success Iran is having against the U.S. and Israel with ballistic missiles and drones.   President Xi is likely demanding increased production in both those categories of weapons systems.

Summary:  The Trump-Xi summit was moved to May 14th.  Will Trump go as a victor or will he still be in the fight? Either way, he will face a Xi who continues his leadership purges.  As we said, this is MAJOR MOVE. Xi has dangerously consolidated power and removed any potential nay-sayers to his aggression.

China is an excellent player of the “long-game”.  Perhaps Xi is becoming impatient.  Current assessments indicate China will attempt to take Taiwan by 2027.  China could actually begin now as it has been rehearsing this military move for years and increasing the tempo of those rehearsals.  Any attack on

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Ukraine – Russia – United States

Event:  Russia is hoping the Iran fight distracts the worlds attention from its war on Ukraine. As we have been writing, Russia has continued its relentless attacks on Ukraine – one of the largest in the war’s history occurred the 3d week in March.  Russia has begun its annual Spring offensive. No major gains at this time, and time will tell if they can gain anything more than the extra 1% of Ukrainian territory they have gained in four years of fighting.  We again urge you to read the past several months’ CASIL Notes to get full awareness of the situation.

NOTE:  Russia IS providing intelligence to Iran to assist in targeting U.S. bases and facilities in the Middle East and to also target Israeli sites.  It may deny this, but it is taking place to help Iran have better targeting.

Summary: Putin is a master manipulator. He will tell you what you want to hear, while all the time working any deal to his/Russia’s advantage. To stop the fighting, Russia must be made to feel pain – economically – and must face a threat – security related – before it will seriously consider sitting down at the peace table for any sincere talks.

Israel- Hamas War

Event: We are in as solidly as possible for Phase Two There will likely be “flare-ups” in fighting as several hundred Hamas fighters continue small-unit attacks on IDF positions near/across the “Yellow line”. Hamas has not said it will cease to fight on, nor has it finally agreed to fully disarm and leave Gaza governance – key Phase 2 components. While we can say the fighting is over, it is likely the threat on Israel from Hamas (and others) is not.

Summary: Phase two is moving now.  Two key elements are: 1) a transition to Palestinian rule for Gaza and the West Bank, and 2) Hamas fighters must lay down its arms and not be part of any future Gaza Strip government. This is the most extensive and best chance at a deal since Hamas started this war over two years ago. Hamas is not ready to relinquish control. The new fighting with Hamas’ ally, Iran, may create some new attacks by remaining Hamas fighters.   

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CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)

NEW IN 

Pakistan-Afghanistan New Fighting

Event:  The Afghanistan-Pakistan Border dispute was on its way out of “Alerts” in February. However, near the end of February, significant NEW fighting broke out along the border and Pakistan conducted airstrikes against Afghanistan in Kabul.  That fighting escalated in March with Pakistani airstrike on Kabul and heavy fighting along their long common border. There is still no resolution. See the past few CASIL NOTES for background.  

Summary: This still requires watching as the fighting could spread as India has tacit support for Afghanistan.  With the instability now in Iran, we could see a regional downward spiral – that would be worst case.

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Moved from the main section: NATO Defensive Moves.

Event: Nothing new, but keeping as last month to maintain situational awareness while the Iran fight continues and everyone looks there: The major comment here is the security guarantees by several European countries – Britain and France among them.Russia will continue its “gray zone” warfare against European and NATO countries as it has for the past year.  (Read previous CASIL Notes for background).  This activity is all an off-shoot from the Ukraine-Russian war.

Summary: The multiple NATO and European leadership meetings will, unfortunately, not stop Russia’s behavior. Perhaps NATO will be more prepared for the coming incursions, but Russia will continue to pressure those countries (as illustrated with the rail-line sabotage) and continued UAV/Drone incursions in a desire to get them to stop supporting Ukraine and become complacent with Russia’s military activity.

Syria:

Event:  At the risk of being a broken record, Syria is not yet a stable government or country even 14 months after the overthrow of the Assad regime.  Challenges remain and struggle will continue. 

Summary:  As we have reported, Syria is a long way from a cohesive and peaceful transition and government/nation.  It is also not cohesive. January and February fighting illustrate just one aspect of how Syria is not a stable or secure country. We need a secure Syria and stable government.  That will take time. 

Cuba

Event:  This should have been in Alerts since the Maduro capture.  Cuba is facing one of its largest and most damaging economic and energy crises since the Communists takeover in 1959. Those crises have been exacerbated since Venezuela  was forced to cut its lifeline of supplying oil to Cuba.  The economic collapse has been happening in Cuba for decades, but it has been propped up by other authoritarian regimes (Russia, China, Venezuela, etc…) and “just getting by”.  Having to stand on its own, allows the true fallacies of Communist rule to show through.‍

Summary:  For the first time since 1959, the Cuban people have an opportunity to change their government from an authoritarian and Communist controlled one, to one based on democracy and true openness. The U.S. will continue to apply pressure to help promote that internal change as it is important (Number one National Security Strategy Objective is the Western Hemisphere) to have economically prosperous and cooperative countries in our hemisphere while simultaneously reducing adversary encroachment.

CONTINUE TO WATCH

-        North Korea.  Following January’s missile launches, the DPRK had small missile launches in March and a major ICBM engine test it filmed and broadcast as propaganda. (NOTE:  North Korea possesses 50-60 nuclear weapons [public record numbers]).  The DPRK is an Iranian ally and is known to have shared missile technology and the question remains as to how much nuclear weapons technology has been shared over the decades of partnership ‍

-        Moved from the Alerts section: U.S. - Venezuela: ‍

       Event:  We must continue to follow this region as U.S. strike against narco-traffickers continue – and will.  We also need to monitor the evolving relationship with the new leaders, and if they will transition to a truly democratic government. The U.S. chose to leave in place the remaining members of the illegal regime.  There must be some order and institutions left intact to continue daily governmental functions for daily life.

      Summary: We are more publicly working to open a more cordial relationship and perhaps create an economic opening for U.S. oil companies and other markets. As a major side benefit, the U.S. is now able to block further encroachment in our sphere of influence by bad actors from Cuba, China, Russia and Iran ( a stated objective in the new National Security Strategy).  We are not finished with the complex Venezuelan situation as it will take months to reach a level of fully cooperative interaction.

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-        Moved from Alerts section after being removed from the main section last month: Follow-up to December U.S. Strikes on ISIS In Nigeria.

Event: New here is the U.S. sent in military training teams to help train the Nigerian military to combat ISIS, AQ and other extremists. We have followed this issue for a couple of months. Recall that the Christmas day  U.S. missile strikes against ISIS locations in NW/N. Central Nigeria.

Summary:  We repeat our previous assessment. December’s attack was notable. It is unlikely to deter ISIS branches in Nigeria to stop their attacks. They have been active for over 14 years. 

MOVED OUT

-        Thailand-Cambodia border fighting.  This is fluctuated over the past two months. We should have left this in CASIL Alerts.  Major fighting erupted along the border for several days in December.  This illustrates 1) how fragile a cease-fire can be and 2) how such a historical border dispute can simmer and escalate with little warning.  It seems now, a new ceasefire has been negotiated.  But, we assess this is still a fragile situation that could explode at any time.

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-        (MOVED OUTbecause we were right – LH entered into a major fight with Israel in support of Iran.) Lebanon and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH).  This stays under the continue to watch based on possible retaliation for the U.S. – Israel attacks on Iran. 

‍ ‍-        (MOVED OUT because we were right about the Houthis entering the fight in support of Iran.) NEW Red Sea  THREAT….. After U.S. attacks on Iran……Houthis –   We assessed the Houthis would possibly attack U.S. or international shipping in the Red Sea or Bad al-Mandeb Strait. Well, the Houthis came out and publicly stated they would do so if the U.S. attacked. Stay vigilant.

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-        (MOVED OUT) Possible Iran influence in…Iraqi Government Elections. This was in continue to Watch, but new information warrants bringing it to your attention.  Iraq held government elections in early November.  Former PM Maliki looks to lead Iraq again.  The U.S. had challenges dealing with him the last time and he seems more in-line with accepting Iranian influences. This could have a potential dangerous shift in U.S.-Iraqi relations. 

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SPECIAL NOTICE(S):

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-        CASIL would like to extend GOOD LUCK and GOD’S SPEED to all our forces fighting against Iran and protecting our freedoms around the globe.  Your superior training and dedication are your own self-generated luck.  That is your advantage.  “Charlie Mike” and  Semper Fidelis!

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‍ -     U.S. budget issues.  We are under a limited government shutdown (now the longest in U.S. history) that negatively affects DHS (TSA, Border Patrol, etc…) As we go to print, no agreement. If no budget agreement is reached, this could have negative effect on national security we have mentioned since October’s newsletter.  MORE IMPORTANTLY, with potential terrorists’ threat from Iran, now is NOT A GOOD TIME TO CUT FUNDING

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EVENTS:

-  March was a busy news month. I had several news interviews during January as events continue to evolve.

o   28 Feb With LiveNow from Fox on Iran.

o   1 March With LiveNow from Fox on Iran.

o   3 March With LiveNow from Fox on Iran.

o   5 March Channel 5 from Charleston, SC for a “Deep Dive” on the Iran Crisis.

o   7 March With LiveNow from Fox on Iran.

o   9 March With Austin Denean of Sinclair Broadcast Service, The National Desk on the Iranian crisis status and trajectory.

o   11 March With Garrett Delk from “Across The Atlantic”; Iran War Update, but wide-ranging discussion on global security situation

o   14 March With LiveNow from Fox on Iran.

o   21 March With LiveNow from Fox on Iran.

o   28 March  With LiveNow from Fox on Iran.

-   UPCOMING EVENTS

o   8 Apr – Public talk on the Iran Crisis and National Security to Local Myrtle Beach Group

o   13 Apr – Public talk on the Iran Crisis and National Security Challenges to Florence Rotary Club.

o   TBD – Launch of NEW PODCAST – “Strategic Affairs with Mark Chandler”

§  We are working one the sites and the first few episodes

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Mark S. Chandler

SPECIAL NOTICE – ‍

BOOK.  “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”.

-        It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War.  This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.

-        It is available in e-book and paperback from Amazon.

Thank you to those who have purchased it, and your positive feedback is greatly appreciated.

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