CASIL NOTES - April’s Newsletter

CASIL NOTES

 - COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –

ISSUE 1: APRIL 2025

CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large.  The format is simplified for a quick review where the area of the world is noted, followed by the Event with a brief summary as to possible implications.

MONTHLY SUMMARY:  During the early part of April, we find anything but a calm and peaceful global environment – Middle East Turmoil, Ukraine War, turmoil on the African continent, and more. Many of the events that follow have direct U.S. involvement or could impact the U.S. in some manner in the near term.

Israel- Hamas War

Event: The possibility of a Cease-fire or continued fighting. Hamas sought a cease-fire on 29 March. It wanted 50 days of cease-fire in exchange for five hostages and for Israel to withdraw its forces from Gaza. On 31 March, Israel officially countered with 40 days for 10 hostages (including American – Edan Alexander) plus an accounting of all remaining living hostages, and no IDF withdrawal at this time.

Summary: Negotiations continue - as well as the fighting. Hamas is using the hostages as a strong emotional bargaining chip against Israel. Israel is using military force to push Hamas to the negotiating table. During the original cease-fire that ended prematurely on 2 March, Hamas used the cease-fire to reconstitute its forces. If a new agreement is short-term cease-fire reached, Hamas will use it to re-group, re-arm and reposition its forces to prepare for renewed INTENSE fighting when/if the cease-fire ends. At the same time, Israel has turned up (and will continue) its intelligence collection effort to be prepared for any new fighting. Both sides are prepared to continue fighting if there is no new agreement.

Ukraine - Russia

Event: War and Possible Peace Deal. Russia initially agreed to a Black Sea cease-fire during the last week of March. A day later, Putin added in additional requirements in Russia’s favor. This is a typical Putin move.  Therefore, there was no cease-fire. Both sides continue attacks.  Russia will continue heavy attacks on Ukraine until the last second before any cease-fire. Any cease-fire will be more in Russia’s favor, or it will not agree.

Summary: Putin is a master manipulator. He will smile and compliment you and tell you what you want to hear, while all the time working any deal to his/Russia’s advantage. History proves he cannot be trusted. Recall, Russia is the aggressor in this war with unprovoked attacks on Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. The key points moving forward for ANY peace deal include 1) how much land Ukraine will be forced to forfeit, and 2) how to ensure future Ukrainian security to preclude Russia from reinitiating hostilities.  Meanwhile, the U.S. is still looking for a “minerals deal” which will ensure the U.S. receives payment for the ~$190B in military aid (as it should).

A peace deal without security guarantees for Ukraine will only embolden Putin. The outcome will likely be future Russian attacks and not limited to Ukraine. Those are key concerns for the European countries especially those in Eastern and Northern Europe - closest to Russian aggression. History, while not a blueprint for the future, is a good forecaster of Russia’s future aggressive behavior.

Iran

Event: Iran rejected (30/31 March) President Trump’s proposal seeking to negotiate an end to Iranian nuclear weapons development. The U.S. sent its proposal in early March.

Iran IS CONTINUING its quest for nuclear weapons and now has enough uranium enriched to 60% to build six (6) nuclear bombs. That is up from four (4) in late 2024. All Iran needs to do is go the additional step to enrich the 60% uranium to HEU (up to 90% purity). That will take approximately three weeks. FUTURE:  Any deal the U.S. works must guarantee NO nuclear weapons development by Iran. If Iran gains a nuclear weapon capability (it has delivery means), then it can (and will) hold the entire Middle East at risk. The Obama-period JCOPA did not prevent Iranian nuclear weapons development.

Summary:  Iran said it would not enter any negotiations while under the U.S. “maximum pressure campaign” or under any threat of further sanctions or military action. Washington has threatened military action to end Iran’s nuclear weapons program if Iran does not stop it voluntarily. Those positions create an obvious impasse. We will have to see if the U.S. continues its military build-up in the region to apply military pressure and if Iran decides to “blink.”  The next few weeks will determine this issue’s trajectory for the next several months.

The Congo

Event: Fighting has been steadily increasing in this area since January. The conflict traces back to the 1990’s when tribal and religious tensions resulted in mass killings and genocide conducted by several different groups. A group, the M23 rebels (supported by neighboring country of Rwanda), has advanced and seized key cities in the eastern part of Congo.

Summary:  This was the area of horrific genocide in the 1990’s and this fighting could lead to that again. The area is rich in natural resources (along with the country of the Central African Republic to the west) and China has worked to create strong regional influence. China does not care about atrocities unless those interfere with its mining operations. The U.S. has begun to try to mediate this conflict but lacks the influence China has. The critical minerals in this region will drive external involvement in the future and could result in greater U.S. involvement.

PRC (China)

Event:  PRC (China). In late March, China deployed two H-6 long-range strategic bombers into the contested South China Sea (SCS) as a show of force and messaging to the U.S. and the Philippines. The U.S. Secretary of Defense was on a Western Pacific visit to several key allies. This flight demonstration was a signal to the U.S. that China is displeased with what the U.S. is doing and saying in China’s perceived area of influence.

Summary:  With everything else happening in the world (Ukraine and the Middle East), China has been able to almost fly under the radar. I would look to see an increase in Chinese messaging both against any U.S. and allied talks or agreements and more threats against Taiwan. As we were going to press, on 1 April, China has initiated major naval and air exercises around Taiwan as a message that China can and will step in to “put Taiwan in its place”.

North Korea (DPRK)

Event:  Like China, the DPRK has been trying to fly under the radar. However, the DPRK leader, Kim Jong-Un (KJU), cannot go too long without letting everyone know he is active and someone to whom attention should be given.

Summary:  DPRK has had a few missile launches in 2025 as messaging to the U.S. and South Korea, but not at levels it conducted in past years.  DPRK also continues to support Russia with troops and equipment in the Ukraine war in exchange for money and technological support. I assess we will see DPRK increase its military messaging in the coming weeks or months with missile launches up to and including an ICBM test.

United States’ Tariffs

Event:  On 2 April, the U.S. will institute a new round of tariffs.

Summary: While there does exist unfair trade balances, the impact of a spiraling tariff war has the potential to have negative diplomatic and economic effects.  Stay alert to how they COULD affect you both individually and professionally/corporately.

CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)

-        Internal Syrian instability during new government formation

-        Myanmar earthquake recovery and on-going civil war

-        Canadian elections and impact on U.S. – Canadian relations

-        Sudan Civil War

-        Egyptian military build-up in the Sinai Peninsula

Mark S. Chandler