CASIL NOTES - August Newsletter
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CASIL NOTES
- MAKING THE COMPLEX, COMPREHENSIBLE –
ISSUE 5: AUGUST 2025
CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large. The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the “Event” with a “Summary” as to possible implications.
SPECIAL NOTICE –
NEW BOOK. I have published a book: “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”
- It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War. This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.
- I walk the reader through the interviews, but with the perspective of my 37 years as an intelligence professional.
- It is available in e-book and paperback from Amazon.
Thank you to those who have purchased it, and your positive feedback is greatly appreciated.
MONTHLY SUMMARY: As August begins, we are back to the future with old “Cold War” threats of nuclear weapons use between the United States and Russia. We had a “hot war” break out between Thailand and Cambodia while the events from the past three months keep simmering - Middle East Turmoil, Ukraine War, and Chinese assertiveness against its neighbors. We saw the Houthis step up attacks this month and Syrian stability showed its true colors.
This month’s Newsletter is a rather long summary of global events. Let’s get started
Ukraine – Russia – United States
Event: As we addressed in July, Russia would continue its relentless attacks on Ukraine – it has. Russia didn’t let up throughout July with larger and more numerous attacks on Ukrainian civilian and key infrastructure targets. Russian aggression is relentless. Russia is making incremental gains on the ground and will continue that push throughout the remainder of the Summer and Fall. Unfortunately, this level of fighting will continue as Russia desires to gain the military advantage before proceeding with any type of ceasefire negotiations. Speaking of ceasefire talks, the U.S. still hasn’t gained any traction on those. The United States gave Russia 50 days to come to the table for talks, however at the end of July, the United States reduced the 50 days to 10-12 before imposing “serious consequences” on Russia. European allies also pledged additional military equipment to Ukraine. Those last changes led to the “Cold War” reference in the summary.
At the end of July, former Russian President Medvedev publicly made a veiled threat via reference to old Soviet nuclear weapons arsenal and of using nuclear weapons, not just against Ukraine, but against the United States. In response, on 1 August, President Trump publicly stated the United States would have two nuclear capable submarines patrol in the appropriate regions to respond to any Russian aggression IF the Medvedev comments were not just bluster.
CONCERN: We assess we are NOT close to any nuclear confrontation. This is typical Russian bluster. The new aspect is the United States isn’t being intimidated by Russia; rather it publicly stated a deterrent military move. After the United States attacks on Iran’s nuclear program, this is something to which Russia will pay attention. See July’s Newsletter which describes “Deterrence”
CEASE-FIRE: We continue to assess, that if there is to be one (which does not look likely soon), it will – without a doubt – be more in Russia’s favor, or Russia (Putin) will not agree.
Summary: As a reminder, Putin is a master manipulator. He will tell you what you want to hear, while all the time working any deal to his/Russia’s advantage. History proves he cannot be trusted. (Refer to June’s Newsletter for more.)
I will also reiterate this statement: A peace deal without security guarantees for Ukraine will only embolden Putin. The outcome will likely be future Russian attacks but not limited to Ukraine. Those are key concerns for the European countries especially those in Eastern and Northern Europe - closest to Russian aggression. History, while not a blueprint for the future, is a good forecaster of Russia’s future aggressive behavior.
Israel- Hamas War
Event: The fighting continues. July ended pretty much the same as June, May and April - more fighting, less talking. We have moved back into the complex military, political and diplomatic environment surrounding this war and the region. In July, we had a growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. There was a major international push to get food supplies to Gazan citizens. Israel now pauses military operations to facilitate movement of those relief supplies. Countries are threatening to recognize a “Palestinian State” (which, BTW does not technically exist [nor never has]) if Israel doesn’t stop its military operations. While this may sound biased, what about telling Hamas to stop its military operations? Israel stopping now, and international recognition is tantamount to a Hamas victory. (I do not think Israel will agree to that outcome.)
As of the start of August, there is a fledgling discussion for new talks (just as in July, June, etc..). The basics of those talks are Israel wants Hamas to release all hostages, surrender and disarm. Hamas wants Israel to completely stop military operations and fully withdraw from Gaza. Those positions are completely opposite one another. This equates to no deal. Israel will increase its military operational tempo and begin to control more areas of Gaza in the coming weeks.
Summary: Negotiations may start; the fighting will continue. Hamas continues to use the hostages as a strong emotional bargaining chip against Israel. Israel continues to use military force to push Hamas to the negotiating table. Israel’s continued military pressure is having a major negative effect on Hamas, but it still not enough to force Hamas to fully surrender. Unfortunately, Hamas is newly emboldened with the international pressure being put on Israel, and Hamas is willing to suffer even more – and make the Palestinian people suffer – before it will agree to a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Israel will continue its military campaign.
Thailand-Cambodia Fighting
Event: After five intense days of fighting along their common border, a cease-fire was reached on 29 July. The fighting was located along the northern Cambodian border with Thailand. Over 200,000 people were displaced on both sides and ~40 people were reportedly killed. This is a contested border region dating back to the early 1900’s when colonial power France arbitrarily drew in borders for the two countries. It is difficult to determine the exact cause of this fighting, and that makes it difficult to determine the strength of this cease-fire. It’s as if the fighting stopped as quickly as it began.
Summary: The cease-fire is holding, but the tensions remain. This could erupt at any time if either side backs away from the diplomatic and military exchange talks. We will continue to watch this situation.
Iran (and United States’ and Israeli Attacks) – Where are We?
Event: Recall the June attacks on Iran’s nuclear weapons program facilities. Israel began a major air campaign on 12/13 June that lasted 12 days. The United States then conducted a major airstrike (highly successful) against Iran’s critical nuclear facilities on 22 June. (See JULY NEWSLETTER FOR DETAILS of the attacks and damage to Iran’s nuclear program.)
Summary: What is next? A ceasefire went into effect three days after the United States attack. That’s probably a good thing for Iran as it was taking a severe military thrashing due to Israeli operations. While there has been no progress in denuclearization talks, Iran says it is willing to talk, but continues to say it will not give up its nuclear program ambitions (and pursuit of nuclear weapons).
We still do not know the full extent of damage across the entirety of Iran’s program. The missions were SUCCESSFUL. We continue to assess there was significant damage to Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan. Any work there will not occur for some time. Israel’s strikes hit several other key facilities that also further set back Iran’s program. There was additional intelligence released in July confirming significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program, but analysis is still underway.
NEGOTIATIONS – There still needs to be negotiations. Iran has still not agreed to abandon its nuclear weapons program (that it denies it has), nor has it changed its aggressive approach to its neighbors. While it has been severely weakened, it has not stopped its belligerence and its ambitions to destabilize the region. Look at the Special Edition Newsletter we published in mid-April about this issue. That Special Edition Newsletter contains key details on Iran’s nuclear weapons program and sets up “What A “Good Deal Looks Like”. A holistic and complete deal requires those elements to be met. To confirm those elements, Iran must allow inspectors on the ground at all facilities for verification. Additionally, Iran must agree to all terms to end its nuclear weapons program. We will have to see if Iran agrees. At this writing, and with a ceasefire in place, we assess Iran may feel emboldened to not agree. Time will tell.
NOTE: Iranian Retaliation Still Possible:
We feel it is important to note that Iran COULD still retaliate against Israel and the United States. Iran suffered a great military defeat and embarrassment – Iran doesn’t take those public defeats lightly.
We would be remiss if we did not warn you of the possible Iranian retaliation. While there is a public ceasefire, Iran is still stinging from the attacks. Iran maintains a long memory. Therefore, you should be aware Iran retaliation could take on many forms – cyber action/attacks against the United States or Israel, using its vast network or proxies and terrorist entities (cells) to attack those same interests wherever they may be (Europe, Middle East, Asia, and even the United States). The more visible retaliation (missiles and drones) will likely be reserved for a resumption in fighting. IF YOU SEE SOMETHING, SAY SOMETHING.
PRC (China)
Event: We are keeping PRC assertiveness on our radar. China continued its assertive activity directed against the Philippines in the contested South China Sea (SCS), and against Japan and Taiwan. It has been applying a consistent pressure for the past four months – militarily and in the info-sphere. We cannot afford to become complacent in watching China. To that end, Exercise Talisman Sabre – an important bi-lateral military exercise between the United States and Australia started 13 July and ends 4 August. Both countries are working on new warfighting and deployment concepts to counter China’s expanding footprint across the SCS and Western Pacific. This exercise strengthens military ties and messages China of our joint and combined military capabilities.
Summary: With everything else happening in the world (Ukraine and the Middle East), China has been able to almost fly under the radar. We must maintain a strategic approach to the Chinese threat. We are seeing increased Chinese messaging both against U.S. (with trade talks in the background -- let’s not forget) and our allies in the region. We expect this trend to continue in the coming months. China will take careful notice of the Talisman Sabre, and we expect to see strong Chinese military messaging in August – that could even stretch into the Western Pacific.
Houthis
Event: We had the Houthis in our “CASIL Alerts” in July. They didn’t let us down. The Houthis were very active in July. They conducted bold attacks on two separate commercial ships in early-mid-July. Several crew members were killed and captured. One of the ships later sank in the Red Sea. As a reminder, Iran backs, trains, and supplies the Houthis. The Houthis also fired several ballistic missiles against Israel during the month. None were successful in hitting Israeli targets. In retaliation, Israel conducted airstrikes against the Houthis to damage missile and port facilities used in the attacks.
Summary: The Houthis continue to pose a moderate risk to international shipping traffic (~20% of global commercial shipping transits this area), Israel and United States assets in the region. While not a significant military threat, as long as they continue to be resupplied by Iran and have the capability, the Houthis will continue their disruptive behavior and occasionally have catastrophic results.
CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)
- Syria: Internal Syrian instability and NEW FIGHTING in the South
o This continues as an unresolved issue. Sectarian fighting continues and will do so.
o The latest fighting occurred in S. Syria between Bedouin tribes and the Druze. Some report as many as 1,100 were killed.
o The Syrian military appeared to come in on the side of the Bedouins – if not directly, at least indirectly by not stopping the attacks.
o Ever hear of the Druze? Don’t worry, not many people have. They are an Arabic-speaking religious minority scattered across Syria, Lebanon, Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
- The Druze faith is an offshoot of Shia Islam with its own unique identity and beliefs. They are not liked by either Shia or Sunni Muslims.
- Half of its ~ one million followers live in Syria, where they total about 3% of the population.
o Israel conducted a series of airstrikes on the attackers to help defend the Druze and told the new Syrian government to stop the attacks. After a few days, with the attacks not stopping, Israel conducted an airstrike in Damascus on Syrian military HQs to show it was serious in stopping the attacks.
o This type of sectarian violence will continue. Israel will continue to strike first when its security interests are threatened.
o As we have reported, Syria is a long way from a cohesive and peaceful transition and government/nation.
- United States’ Tariffs. These stay in our ALERTS section because 1) they are still impacting elements of trade between several of our allies, 2) a rush of deals were made at the end of July, and 3) not all tariff deals have been finalized.
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- North Korea. We are moving DPRK to CASIL Alerts this month. Like China, the DPRK has been trying to fly under the radar. However, the DPRK leader, Kim Jong-Un (KJU), cannot go too long without letting everyone know he is active and someone to whom attention should be given. During June, he launched a series of missiles as a show of force. This was a small demonstration - not as much as we anticipated in past newsletters.
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- The United States mediated a historic peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. It was signed in Washington on 27 June. We are keeping this in Alerts for this month based on the historical aspects of this conflict.
- India-Pakistan. We are moving this to the bottom of CASIL ALERTS section. The ceasefire from May seems to be holding strong. However, with the historical tension between these two adversaries, it is prudent to keep them on the CASIL radar. If you need details, refer to the May Newsletter.
Mark S. Chandler