CASIL NOTES - August Newsletter
Enjoy reading CASIL notes on the site or download the brief here.
CASIL NOTES
- COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –
ISSUE 17: AUGUST 2026
CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large. The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the “Event” with a “Summary” as to possible implications.
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MONTHLY SUMMARY: The U.S. – Iran “fight” continues.We open August with renewed fighting. It is a break from the past three months. As August dawns we seem to be on the cusp of new major U.S. military strikes. During July, the diplomatic MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) fell apart due to Iran’s continued attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. We continue to be asked: How long will it last? What will be the outcome? Both remain unknown. The stakes for today and tomorrow remain high. There are key aspects of the war that must be addressed. As there are still many events happening around the world, we will cover those (albeit BRIEFLY). As always, these events argue for a continued “strategic approach/awareness”. Breaking during the last two days of July involving the Israel-Hamas War – Hamas has agreed to a key ceasefire component – disarming. What does that mean? We should maintain awareness of the successful Ukrainian attacks in the Ukraine-Russia War. The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continues to grow. China continues its aggressive behavior in the SCS.
U.S. and Israel War on Iran
Event: We open August with renewed fighting. The U.S. has not “taken the gloves off” again, and we must see if the current fighting leads to a true escalation (we may be close). After almost six weeks of sustained, and excellent, combat operations, a “temporary” cease-fire with Iran began on 8 April. The formal MOU was signed on 15 June – it collapsed in less than a month (we were not surprised). In our assessment, the MOU was only beneficial to Iran, and we assessed Iran would not follow-through – that has now been proven. Tragically, the U.S. lost four more personnel to Iranian attacks. War is a deadly and dangerous endeavor, but we still mourn the loss of our great American warriors.
The military operations against Iran were some of the most successful in U.S. military history – accomplishing the military objectives that U.S. political leadership established. The advantage at the beginning of the ceasefire (April) was all to the U.S. and Israel. That shifted, in our assessment, to Iran. We could be at a NEW SHIFT in leverage and advantage, but the U.S. (likely with Israel’s support) must conduct major combat operations and maintain significant economic pressure for that to happen.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). This has created a significant pressure-point on the region and the U.S. in negotiations – and in combat operations. The continual Iranian attacks on are a prime example of how Iran is trying to maintain control through threats. That must stop. If not stopped, Iran will, de-facto, control the SoH.
In a BREAKING issue, Iran was likely behind a cyber attack on Minnesota water treatment facilities in late July. First, Iran is a very capable cyber threat. This is not the first cyber attack by Iran during the fighting. It has maintained a significant cyber pressure on the U.S. and U.S. companies. This just points to the fact that each of us should maintain our own cyber awareness.
We conducted at least 12 live interviews in July on the evolving and dynamic situation (11 on Iran and 1 on U.S. – KSA Nuclear Agreement). A combination of those interviews covers the details and evolving issues very well. It is best if you review those interviews instead of us trying to write out all the complex details and nuances. Please refer to the CASIL Website (and Mark Chandler on LinkedIn), and June’s CASIL Notes for further details.
Worth REPEATING from previous CASIL Notes. We mentioned the need to think at the Strategic, Operational and Tactical Levels of War and Diplomacy. That is still critical – refer to that issue for details.
- We can win the war, but LOSE THE PEACE -
If you want to argue the right/wrong of the fight, relegate that to history class, the living room or bar talk. The focus now should be on the best outcome for the United States and the safety of our forces – now and into the FUTURE.
We will repeat this as it is critical to understanding. We are in the fight and now we must push this to a conclusion that benefits our national interests, our security and the security for the region. You can also see that the vast ranging economic impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure/control by Iran is having. In our assessment through 40+ years in watching this challenge, that threat must be eliminated.
NOW ON TO THE REGULAR NEWSLETTER
Israel- Hamas War
Event: In a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT – on 30/31 July, the U.S. announced Hamas had agreed to the critical element in the cease-fire (been active since Sep 2025); Hamas will disarm. This was announced in coordination with the “Board of Peace” established at the cease-fire’s beginning. Hamas disarming has been a key stumbling block since the cease-fire was announced last year.
What does this mean; immediate peace? It is COMPLEX. We are a far from Hamas turning over its weapons and completely disarming. You will not see fighters bringing in weapons and piling them up on the streets of Gaza. First, there are several small Palestinian and Islamic terrorist groups (i.e., PIJ [Palestinian Islamic Jihad]) involved in this handover from Hamas. There must be a verification process established to confirm all weapons are turned over. Note, we are talking about thousands of small-arms, rockets, RPG’s, explosives, and more. Once you have a verification process, the work must be done. That will be difficult and dangerous. The Board of Peace must also look at dismantling the hundreds of miles of tunnel networks running through the Gaza Strip – those facilitated Hamas movement and weapons storage – and the surprise 7 October attack on Israel. Therefore, we are a long way from success. After Hamas completes its weapons turn-in, everyone will look to the IDF to withdraw back from the current “yellow line” and to the border between Israel and the Gaza Strip. As of this writing, Israel has yet to respond to the Hamas agreement. Remember, Israel is being forced to maintain a focus on Lebanese Hezbollah to the north, and threats from Iran, the Houthis, and Hamas.
Summary: Our assessment is based on extensive dealings and history with Hamas and terror group negotiations. We remain skeptical that the Hamas weapons turn-in will go smoothly and that all weapons will be turned in. There will likely be “flare-ups” in fighting as several Hamas fighters will be reluctant to disarm (that is how they attack Israel and control the Gaza Strip’s residents). Israel will continue to be proactive in its defense to the Hamas attacks. Israel would be prudent to see Hamas continued positive steps in this regard before relinquishing any ground to the terrorists. Hamas is not ready to relinquish control and therefore will look to some way to keep that control.
For a comprehensive understanding of this war, please reference my book, “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”.
Ukraine – Russia
Event: Attacks by both sides continue at INCREASED levels. Ukraine continues to exploit its success (begun in May) with drone attacks deeper into Russia. Those attacks are being successful in negatively impacting Russia’s energy infrastructure and its economic interests. Proving out Ukraine’s success, and in retaliation, Russia continued to expand its attacks on more civilian targets (and that is saying a lot). The Black Sea has become a battlefield on its own as both sides attack commercial shipping and ports in attempts to create more economic damage to the other. Ukraine also expanded its deep attacks into the Caspian Sea when it attacked an Iranian ship carrying attack drone and missile resupply parts from Russia to Iran.
As we said in July, and it remains true heading into August, Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian oil and gas infrastructure targets have caused fuel shortages to spread from Russian-annexed Crimea to nearby parts of southern Russia, and even to the capital Moscow (although Moscow is not showing those impacts like outlying cities/areas). These attacks ARE HAVING a NEGATIVE impact on Russia’s energy sector.
Putin is finally feeling the pressure. He is under increasing domestic pressure (as much as that is allowed in Russia [more private than public]. He is limiting his personal exposure due to fear of being hit by Ukrainian attacks and even cancelled some outside public events. He still speaks with bravado but his personal actions and behavior are changing.
Two significant meetings were held in July. The NATO summit. The allies pledged their continued support of Ukraine. And the U.S. agreed to a Patriot missile (surface to air missile) production agreement for Ukraine to produce the much-needed air defense missiles. It will take time to see results from that agreement, but that is important to Ukraine’s defense and sends a strong message to Putin that the U.S. continues to support Ukraine. The second was a Zelensky visit to the White House where they discussed future support against Russia.
Summary: Putin remains a master manipulator. But, for the first time since he began his unwarranted invasion on Ukraine, he is feeling pressure – both internal and external. He is not ready to stop, and he will continue to message a different reality of the war. Russia’s information campaign is unrivaled (except perhaps for China’s and Iran’s). The significant increase in Russian attacks might signal some desperation on his part. It is too early to make that observation a final assessment, but it needs close watching. To stop the fighting, Russia must be made to feel pain – economically – and must face a threat – security related – before it will seriously consider sitting down at the peace table for any sincere talks.
We don’t want to characterize this as a turning point in the war in Ukraine’s favor, but with the recent Ukrainian successes, Russia is facing more pressure than at any point in the 4+ year war. We again urge you to read the past several months’ CASIL Notes to get full awareness.
Special note: A “convergence” of two wars……
We mentioned above the Ukrainian attack on an Iranian supply ship in the Caspian Sea. That ship was carrying supplies for drones and missiles from Russia to Iran. That was both a bold and strategic move with impacts across two wars – Ukraine’s and the U.S-Iran. It also illustrates the alliance is alive and well between Iran and Russia. We also need to point out China has ties to both countries and both wars. Iran has supported Russia’s war against Ukraine for years and both Russia and China are supporting Iran against the U.S. and Israel (with supplies and intelligence).
The common foe – the United States. This helps one understand that these adversaries may fight one war, but their inter-connectivity spreads across multiple regions and threats against the U.S. It benefits the observer to not get “tunnel vision” when looking at these various threats – and they are all threats.
PRC (China)
Event: China remains as a major strategic threat to the U.S. national security. The Trump-Xi summit came and went. We have not heard much about advances and agreements since that time.
What we HAVE SEEN, though, is China being China and increasing pressure across the region against anyone aligned with the U.S. or Taiwan. China continued its busy June into July. Here’s a summary of China’s actions in July: 1) The unannounced test launch of a submarine-launched nuclear ballistic missile from the W. Pacific; 2) Naval threats against the Philippines with its “coast guard” (which is a true extension of its PLA-N); 3) the same threats and actions around Taiwan with threats of interfering with commercial shipping; and 4) a New agreement of mutual support with North Korea. Add those events to June’s: 1) Sailed its newest aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait as a sign of power and pressure. 2) Participated with Russia to fly combat aircraft through S. Korea’s ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) as more military messaging. 3) Began coastguard “inspections” of free commercial shipping in international waters near Taiwan. 4) Went head-to-head against the Philippines in the contested (international waters) South China Sea near Scarborough Shoal.
Summary: We have two strong months of continued PRC pressure against U.S. allies in the region. China will continue this pressure. One reason is to message the region and the U.S. that China can do as it pleases in its “sphere of influence” and the other reason is to anesthetize the region to its behavior until it becomes “normal” – until it is the actual forced takeover of the SCS, Taiwan, etc…. Remember, Xi has stated he wants Taiwan back under PRC control in 2027. You should also know China is studying the fight (military, economic and diplomatic) against Iran with front-row interest in see how we employ our power capabilities.
China is an excellent player of the “long-game”. But perhaps Xi is becoming impatient. Current assessments indicate China will attempt to take Taiwan by 2027. China could begin now as it has been rehearsing this military move for years and increasing the tempo of those rehearsals. The recent pressure against its neighbors is China’s way of positioning itself to control the region should any conflict happen.
CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)
NEW IN
Syria
Event: We are this in ALERTS.In the last days of June, Israel conducted small-scale military operations in S. Syria. These were two-fold: Protect the Druze minority being attacked and also cut off terrorists operating locations with the ability to attack into E. Israel. In a surprising public announcement, Syria indicated it wanted to hold “normalization” talks with Israel. It wants to reach some diplomatic progress for their shared borders. This is a good START. Syria is not yet capable of controlling its borders and has not yet achieved full internal stability.
Summary:See previous editions for background and previous summaries. We will continue to point out that Syria is NOT a cohesive nation-state and the central Syrian government still has not established it authority over all of the country and establish a true rule of law. With this instability, we will continue to see actions like Israel conducted for its security. We will also see future ISIS attacks inside Syria. The U.S. will continue gathering intelligence to facilitate strikes on ISIS and keep it from growing stronger in Syria – but the U.S. needs Syria to step up since the U.S. withdrew its troops from the country.
Pakistan-Afghanistan Continued Fighting
Event: Keeping this IN ALERTS. Fighting remained steady in July after its spike in June. There is still no resolution. There were at least two Taliban-backed terrorist attacks against Pakistan military/government sites in June and border attacks in July. Pakistan increased airstrikes along its border with Afghanistan and also conducted some small-scale ground operations against villages along the border during the last week of June. See the past few CASIL NOTES for background.
Summary: No progress in the peace talks.This still requires watching as the fighting could escalate.Based on multiple attacks in the last few days, we could see an escalation in August.
Cuba
Event: We moved Cuba to alerts because it bears watching. The situation could change quickly as Cuba’s internal crisis continues to worsen. A significant item to point out for July – the U.S. delivered humanitarian aid (worth millions of dollars). Therefore, it is not all about military pressure to get the Communist Cuban government to step down Cuba remains on a downward spiral. See last several months’ CASIL Notes for more background.
Summary: While there have been talks, the Communist regime in Cuba is not ready to throw in the towel. There will have to be more suffering for the Cuban people or some form of popular pressure (always hard in an authoritarian country) to cause change. The U.S. will continue to apply pressure to help promote that internal change as it is important (Number one National Security Strategy Objective is the Western Hemisphere) to have economically prosperous and cooperative countries in our hemisphere while simultaneously reducing adversary encroachment. Change could come soon – within a few weeks or months. The challenge is will that change be smooth or have implosive and explosive catastrophic effects as the regime heads toward collapse.
CONTINUE TO WATCH
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – EBOLA Outbreak
Event. UPDATE: In mid-May, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an Ebola outbreak in the DRC a public health emergency of international concern. The outbreak has NOT LESSENED in two months. The WHO said the current strain of Ebola is caused by the Bundibugyo virus. There are no approved drugs or vaccines.There have been over 1400 deaths and over 3,000 cases – with some outside DRC.
Summary. Most Ebola outbreaks are small, but the 2014-16 West Africa outbreak infected over 28,000 (over 11,000 died) – the largest ever outbreak of the disease. This spread must be contained before hundreds, if not thousands die. You can expect to see a multi-national effort to support stopping the spread of one of the deadliest viruses on earth. It does not help international efforts that there continues to be an insurgent war in the area.
Actions in NATO and Europe.
Event: We continue to watch European actions due to Ukraine-Russian War. In late July, Romanian F-16’s shot down two Russian drones violating its airspace. Recall,during thelast couple of days in May, a Russian attack drone hit an apartment building in Romania. Over the last two days, at least one Russian ballistic missile impacted in Poland (while several overflew Polish airspace). This underscores the dangers to neighboring countries in the Russia-Ukraine war (Romania, Hungary, Poland, etc…). Russia has no regard for airspace violations or safety of innocent civilians when it launches missiles and UAV/Drones.There were also new reports of Russian sabotage efforts in Poland, Germany and other countries. Additionally, Russia continues its cyber-warfare against almost every NATO member.
Summary: Russia will continue its reckless attacks against Ukraine and won’t care who is injured. It will also continue its “gray zone” warfare against European and NATO countries as it has for the past years. (Read previous CASIL Notes for background). Multiple NATO and European leadership meetings have, unfortunately, not stopped Russia’s behavior. Russia will continue to pressure those countries and continued sabotage and UAV/Drone incursions in a desire to get them to stop supporting Ukraine and become complacent with Russia’s military activity.
North Korea.
The DPRK continued its threatening rhetoric. After missile launches in May and June, the DPRK focused on diplomatic showmanship. DPRK signed new partnership agreements with both Russia and China. Also, reporting in late July, indicates North Korea is preparing to send an additional 13,000 troops to support Russia’s war against Ukraine.
MALI
Event: We are moving this back up. The U.S. is CONSIDERING NEW strikes on Islamic Extremists (al-Queda and ISIS). Recall on 25 April, Jihadist insurgent groups affiliated with al-Queda and ISIS conducted wide-scale attacks across Mali. No significant updates/status change.
Summary: We have written about the continued growth in Islamic extremist groups’ growing influence in Africa. We also touched on the fact that several African nations (Mali being one) chose Russia over the U.S. and France to militarily partner with to help stem the growing threat. This threat will continue to grow if those governments do not take lasting and coordinated efforts to stop the spread of radical Islamists in their countries. There will be more attacks like this. Remember, many nations (including the U.S.) ignored al-Queda’s (1990’s) and ISIS’ (2000’s) rise to power and influence thinking this was not their problem.
Venezuela
Event: This remains in because of the two late-June earthquakes. There was major destruction in and near Caracas and surrounding cities. Thousands are left homeless and missing. As of this publication, over 4000 are confirmed dead with that death toll likely to climb. See previous editions for background.
Summary: The international community is banding together to support relief efforts. The U.S. is right in that mix with the U.S. military (led by U.S. SOUTHERN COMMAND) conducting HA/DR operations (Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief). These operations will take time and recovery from such wide destruction will take years to overcome. Recovery will take longer and the poor functioning government will struggle to provide support and relief to its own people. This bears watching to see the impact on U.S.-Venezuela relations and also the Venezuelan government stability.
MOVED OUT
N/A This month.
SPECIAL NOTICE(S):
- AMERICA celebrated 250 Years of being Strong and Free. We hope you took time (and will continue to take time) to reflect on the freedoms our great nation has and stands for – and always will. While we might have a few flaws, America stands tall as the greatest nation on the planet and a beacon of freedom for all to emulate.
- The U.S. lost four more personnel to Iranian attacks in Jul. That is a total of 18 KIA. We have experienced several hundred wounded (WIA) War is a deadly and dangerous endeavor, but we still mourn the loss of our great American warriors. Our thoughts and prayers go out to those that the brave warriors left behind.
- A special thank you to all who have served and will serve to protect those freedoms and rights for every American citizen.
- CASIL would like to continue extending GOOD LUCK and GOD’S SPEED to all our forces fighting against Iran and protecting our freedoms around the globe. Your superior training and dedication are your own self-generated luck. That is your advantage. “Charlie Mike” and Semper Fidelis!
EVENTS:
- UPCOMING EVENTS
o PODCAST LAUNCH – STRATEGIC AFFAIRS WITH MARK CHANDLER
— First five Episodes are available now
— More coming in August
o CCU will begin its Fall 2026 Academic Semester
- We thought May and June were busy news months. We only slightly slowed in July. Even more news engagements than May. I had several news interviews during the month.
o 8 Jul with News Nation on Iran.
o 8 Jul with “America at Night” on Iran.
o 10 Jul with LiveNow from Fox on Iran
o 11 Jul with News Nation on Iran.
o 16 Jul with News Nation on Iran.
o 18 Jul with News Nation on Iran – (Impromptu re: NEW U.S. KIA).
o 21 Jul with LiveNow from Fox on Iran.
o 21 Jul with “America at Night” on Iran
o 23 Jul with Austin Denean of SBS – New U.S. – Saudi Arabia Nuclear Deal.
o 24 Jul with News Nation on Iran
o 28 Jul with “America at Night” on Iran.
o 29 Jul with News Nation on Iran.
- PUBLIC ENGAGEMENTS
o None scheduled.
Mark S. Chandler
SPECIAL NOTICE – !! One YEAR OLD!!
BOOK. “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”.
- It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War. This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.
- It is available in e-book and paperback from Amazon.
Thank you to those who have purchased it, and your positive feedback has been greatly appreciated.