CASIL NOTES - December Newsletter
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CASIL NOTES
- COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –
ISSUE 9: DECEMBER 2025
CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large. The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the “Event” with a “Summary” as to possible implications.
MONTHLY SUMMARY: As December begins, we are again reminded to remain strategically focused. Many of the events/issues we highlighted over the past three months either took place or continued. In new developments during the last week of November, there is new energy to resolving the Ukraine-Russia War – at least it appears so in the U.S. and Europe. Is there a silver lining in the Israel-Hamas War or a silver lining on the edges of storm clouds? We are seeing new Russian aggression – operating in the “gray zone” – in Europe while NATO continues making prudent defensive military moves. The U.S. military buildup in the S. Caribbean (aimed at Venezuela) grew significantly during the past month.
This month’s Newsletter is another rather long summary of global events. Let’s get started
Ukraine – Russia – United States
Event: As we have been writing, Russia would continue its relentless attacks on Ukraine – it has. Russia is NOT slowing down, and this is an international message of defiance to the U.S., NATO and EU – and of course, Ukraine. Hope for peace has been elevated during the last few days of November as a NEW Peace Proposal was presented and discussed. While the initial proposal heavily favored Russia (and rewarded them for their naked aggression), later consultations made a counter that seemed more equitable to Ukraine and Europe. We urge you to read the past several months’ CASIL Notes to get full awareness of the situation. There has been renewed talk of a President Trump – Putin meeting (we have seen those come and go though). After the above newest peace proposals, Russia launched some of its deadliest attacks in the war or civilian and energy infrastructure targets all across Ukraine – again showing its true colors. Not to be outdone, Ukraine successfully attacked two Russian “shadow fleet” oil tankers in the Black Sea.
As a reference for the peace discussions and also context, Russia controls about 1/5 of Ukraine (in the E-SE region). It has only gained about 1% of land since its initial invasion in 2022. Any ground gains are incremental at best (while suffering hundreds of thousands in casualties). Russia will continue a strong push throughout the early Winter. At this writing, Russia is making a major push over a small region centered on a city called Pokrovsk - a key eastern front-line town. While the place is unknown to the casual observer, it holds significant operational value as it is a key transport and supply hub whose capture could unlock Russian efforts to seize the rest of the region (if Russia exploits this advantage). This level of fighting will continue as Russia desires to gain the military advantage before proceeding with any type of ceasefire negotiations.
NOTE: One of Ukrainian President Zelensky’s closest advisors is under a corruption investigation. This COULD negatively impact Ukraine’s negotiating team. This might also spark controversy in the U.S. to prove how corrupt Ukraine is. We urge caution in jumping to such general conclusions. Yes, there was corruption in Ukraine, however that stemmed from its early days and ties to the old Soviet-/Russian-style governance. There has been steady progress in fighting that corruption. Will it be eliminated? Probably not, but Ukraine has come a long way in stopping it – probably further than several European nations who hide it well. We urge you to look at a FACTUAL history of how this evolved.
Summary: Putin is a master manipulator. He will tell you what you want to hear, while all the time working any deal to his/Russia’s advantage. History proves he cannot be trusted. (Refer to June’s Newsletter for more.). The aftermath of the Alaska summit and the failure to meet in October, reinforces this history -- promises made and broken.
To stop the fighting, Russia must be made to feel pain – economically – and must face a threat – security related – before it will seriously consider sitting down at the peace table for any sincere talks.
We reiterate this statement: A peace deal without concrete and committed security guarantees will only embolden Putin. The outcome will likely be future Russian attacks but not limited to Ukraine. Those are key security concerns for the European countries especially those in Eastern and Northern Europe - closest to Russian aggression. The West cannot afford to repeat the Neville Chamberlain disastrous agreement with Hitler on the eve of WWII, and the West must honor its commitment to Ukraine unlike it did with the 1994 security guarantee against Russian aggression. History, while not a blueprint for the future, is a good forecaster of Russia’s future aggressive desires and behavior.
NATO Defensive Moves
Event: This was a new entry in October and continues to deserve its own section this month. Three months ago we alerted you to the increased activity in the Baltic Sea and Baltic states. That activity increased last month. As an off-shoot from the Ukraine-Russian war, NATO has been forced to implement multiple defensive moves to be prepared for further Russian aggression. We commented that we haven’t seen this much air and naval activity in E. Europe and the Baltics since the old Soviet Union days – a playbook Putin knows well. In a bolder move, Russia – most likely – conducted a sabotage attack against a Polish rail line (15 November). Fortunately, no one was killed, but this is Russia pushing the limits of “Gray Zone” warfare. The reinforces the steadily increasing Russian military pressure against NATO’s Eastern flank, and the end of November saw several defensive NATO actions against Russian pressure. The activity will continue as Russia looks to apply more military pressure.
Summary: The multiple NATO and European leadership meetings will, unfortunately, not stop Russia’s behavior. Perhaps NATO will be more prepared for the coming incursions, but Russia will continue to pressure those countries (as illustrated with the rail line sabotage) and continued UAV/Drone incursions in the desire to get them to stop supporting Ukraine and become complacent with Russia’s military activity.
U.S. - Venezuela:
Event: Since mid-August, the U.S. has been positioning several ships in the S. Caribbean as messaging to Venezuela’s illegal president (Maduro) – and in part to support the mission Coast Guard and DEA narcotics interdiction. The U.S. moved a U.S. aircraft carrier (USS Gerald R. Ford) to the area during November. The pressure on President Maduro is mounting (NOTE: He has not been recognized as the legitimate ruler of Venezuela by two successive U.S. Administrations). The U.S. also declared Maduro part of an international drug terrorist organization. This builds the U.S. and international legal case against Maduro. The U.S. has now conducted well-over a dozen strikes on drug cartel boats leaving Venezuela during the past three months. This will continue as the U.S. builds pressure to stop the flow of illegal drugs AND to pressure Maduro to step down.
Right after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, President Trump gave an ominous warning about the “closure” of Venezuelan airspace (warning to “not fly over or near Venezuelan airspace…”). NOTE: According to International Law, a country has sovereign airspace (and seas) out to 12 NM from its coastline. Doing anything INSIDE the 12 NM would be tantamount to a violation of that nation’s sovereignty and depending on what that is, could be deemed an “act of war”.
Summary: The U.S. is strongly messaging for Maduro to step down and allow the legitimately elected leadership to take power. The U.S. is also legitimately going after drug cartels that it designated terrorist organizations months ago. This bears close watching as it does not appear the U.S. will take military action against Venezuela proper, but wars have accidently flared up for lesser reasons. Just for your awareness, Venezuelan allies include Cuba, China, Russia and Iran.
Israel- Hamas War
Event: A new cease-fire went into effect in early October. Phase one (technically we are still in Phase one) saw all living Israeli hostages released and 28 bodies were supposed to be returned for the Israeli limited withdrawal and full opening of humanitarian relief supplies. Hamas has stalled on returning the bodies. As of this CASIL NOTES publication, 3-4 bodies remain. Yes, there have been “flare-ups” in fighting as several hundred Hamas fighters continue small-unit attacks on IDF positions near/across the “Yellow line”. Hamas has vowed to fight on. (NOTE: It’s a cease-fire which does not mean there will not be breakdowns. Success in the long term is negotiating Phase two.)
Summary: Phase two and beyond are in negotiations. These are not going as smoothly as all anticipated/hoped with the initial success of Phase one. Two key elements are: 1) a transition to Palestinian rule for Gaza and the West Bank, and 2) Hamas fighters must lay down its arms and not be part of any future Gaza Strip government. This is the most extensive and best chance at a deal since Hamas started this war over two years ago. Hamas is not ready to relinquish control. Again, the chance for peace lies in Hamas’s hands. Will they accept it?
Syria:
Event: Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa made a historic visit to the White House in November. It was historic because it was the first Syrian presidential visit to the White House and because al-Sharaa is a former al-Qaeda leader who fought against the U.S. in Iraq and Syria and previously had a $10M bounty on his head for fighting and killing U.S. military personnel. (NOTE: He was known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, and the leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). He fought against the U.S. since 2003.)
This visit proves that strategic interests force nations to sometimes “make a deal with the devil”. The U.S. objective is to create stability in the Middle East, reduce the pressure on Israel, gain influence and block Russia’s and Iran’s influence in the region.
Reminder that Since al-Sharaa led a successful overthrow of the horrific al-Asad regime 12 months ago, Syria is far from a stable country after over a decade of civil war. Sectarian fighting continues and will do so. Israel continues to take military action to protect its borders (the latest incident during the last days of November in S. Syria) and some minority sects (primarily the Druze) inside Syria. As CASIL NOTES pointed out during the last two months, ISIS is resurging inside Syria and must be delt with. And to further add to the ISIS threat are the thousands of ISIS fighters (some of the worst) held in prisons in NE Syria and guarded by our Kurdish allies. The Kurds (faithful U.S. ally in the fight against ISIS) are still threatened by this new regime.
Summary: As we have reported, Syria is a long way from a cohesive and peaceful transition and government/nation. The discussions and fledgling agreements from the November visit will have to play out soon and the new government will need to fight ISIS and engage in positive diplomacy and relations toward Israel and against Iran. A stable Syria with reduced Iranian and Russian (and Turkey to be frank) influence will benefit the U.S. interests in the region. Time will tell how successful this new relationship will be.
Trump-Xi Summit in ROK – and Beyond
Event: President Trump and President Xi held that bi-lateral summit in South Korea in late October which resulted in several trade/tariff deals, fentanyl restrictions and rare-earth mineral deals (although nothing is finalized by signature at this writing). At this writing, however, we have not seen a net-positive trade impact for the United States. Another thing we have not seen is reporting on how the formal adoption of those agreements is progressing. This is the hard part – making the real deal. We are not saying they are not progressing, it is just that there is limited/no reporting on progress. In a surprise move, Xi requested a call with President Trump in late November. The main issue was not trade, but rather Taiwan. Xi does not like the U.S. and its allies persistent talk of support for Taiwan. In a breaking announcement, President Trump and Xi will hold a summit in Spring 2026.
Summary: Any of the deals, will only be for one year and then must be re-negotiated. This gives each side time to strengthen their respective positions. Can the U.S. reduce its reliance on China’s strong-hold of rare-earth minerals? Will China actually stop export of fentanyl and fentanyl precursors. This was a great accomplishment, but we need to keep our eye on the strategic picture and not the short-term gain. The summit is a positive sign, but will there be an concrete and tangible outcome that forces China to comply with its alleged agreements.
PRC (China)
Event: We are keeping China here due to its relative overall threat to U.S. national security and we do not feel that it is time to move it to the CASIL ALERTS section. China continues to make a lot of news, and it would be short-sighted to believe it is going to quietly take a backstage – especially after the major summit with the U.S. and the trade space it obtained.
After the October leadership purges (see November’s CASIL NOTES), China renewed its international pressure against the U.S. and its regional allies. It continues to use its navy for messaging against regional allies in the SCS and Western Pacific. It continues its diplomatic messaging about interference by the U.S. and its allies in what China considers its “sphere of influence” in S. and S.E. Asia. These are not just empty Chinese statements, they continue repeating the same messaging 1) because they mean it and 2) because if they say it enough, it will become the dominant “fact” of the events.
Summary: China is an excellent player of the “long-game” and the diplomatic show in early September was planned for maximum impact and messaging. The new trade deals with the U.S. bolster China’s standing and buy it time. The one-year agreements are just a blip on the Chinese time-line. We must maintain a strategic approach to the Chinese threat. We are seeing increased Chinese messaging both against U.S. (with trade talks in the background) and our allies in the region. We expect this trend to continue in the coming months.
CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)
NEW IN
- We do not usually address U.S. domestic issues, but this is a security concern highly worthy of a CASIL Alert. Just before Thanksgiving, an Afghanistan National (who had been granted asylum) attacked National Guard soldiers on the streets of D.C. At this writing one soldier has died and one is in very critical condition. (Refer to news sources for case details.) The day after Thanksgiving another Afghanistan national was arrested in Texas for making on-line threats for a bomb attack.
o SUMMARY: These incidents seemingly come “out of the blue”, but there were likely some indicators of radical/abnormal behavior. We are not sounding an alert for a widespread terrorist conspiracy, however, these incidents (combined with October’s ISIS incident in Michigan) reinforce the mantra (and personal responsible behavior) to: IF YOU SEE SOMETHING; SAY SOMETHING
- Lebanon and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH). In late November, Israel conducted several attacks into Southern Lebanon (and even one in Beirut – killed the LH military commander). These attacks were against the LH and some Hamas/Palestinian terrorist cells. The fact Israel was forced to take these actions speaks to the fact LH continues to try and refit and re-occupy its fighting locations in S. Lebanon and the Lebanese Army is ineffective at stopping it. This bears watching as Israel will not allow LH to reoccupy its positions in the South (per the Nov 2024 ceasefire agreement). Lebanon protests these attacks publicly, but privately it realizes it faces challenges to successfully stop LH push. Meanwhile, Iran is attempting to resupply LH and continues sending funds and weapons to its leading proxy group.
- Iran seized a Marshall Islands flagged oil tanker transiting international waters in the Straits of Hormuz in mid-November and held its crew hostage. At this writing, Iran has yet to release the tanker. This is not the first time Iran has done this (this activity dates back decades) and is messaging when Iran does not like how issues are developing in international relations (think nuclear weapons negotiations, U.S. sanctions, Israeli pressure, etc…). This bears watching as Iran could disrupt significant oil flow through this vital (and narrow) passage should it take more aggressive action.
- November began with a lot of reporting of Christian “genocide” in Nigeria. While we are not international lawyers, we are not saying this is a “genocide”, but it is highly disconcerting. Nigeria is roughly split between Christians and Muslims. The key issues: 1) Boko Haram (and other Islamist extremist groups) are killing Christians (40,000+ since 2009), and 2) have been trying to take over major parts of Nigeria for over a decade; and 3) the Nigerian government is ineffective in stopping the Islamists terrorists from killing and kidnapping. This is one of the early signals of a failing government and this issue bears close watching. (For a detailed history of the killings and the warring factions, please research Nigerian event for the past 15 years.)
- Iraqi Government Elections. Iraq held government elections in early November. It has a Parliamentary-style government. Why bring this to your notice? It is the sixth free election since the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003 (we were there) and ousted the dictator Sadaam Hussein. It was a relatively secure election, BUT, (here’s the rub)there was no clear-cut leader and some of the major opposition includes Iranian-backed/controlled candidates. Iran has long pushed for deeper control/involvement inside Iraq. How this government shakes out, will indicate the strength of Iranian influence and could also indicate future stability in Iraq.
CONTINUE TO WATCH
- Put in CASIL Alerts last month, ISIS IS BACK. Actually, ISIS never left. It has maintained nominal control over certain small villages and areas in Syria since its major battlefield defeat years ago, but it has never truly been eliminated. As we mentioned several times regarding Syrian government instability, ISIS could exploit the security gaps (more so as the U.S. draws downs our forces in Syria). That “exploiting” turned into more attacks in Syria (some targeted against our close ally (Syrian Kurds from the SDF). Left alone, ISIS can easily further exploit the security gaps and metastasize like the cancer it is.
- Sudan Civil War. This bears continued watching. In late October, a rebel militia called the RSF finally captured (after 18 months) a key government stronghold (El Fasher) in the Darfur region. The reason we chose now to publish this issue is the strength (and outside support) the RSF has generated in recent weeks and months. (See October’s CASIL NOTES for details.) This fighting leads to further destabilizing the country (one of the largest in Africa) as controlling the Darfur region could lead to a failed state. Sudan has a strategic port location on the Red Sea and access to key minerals and energy resources.
- Moved Here. Iran Nuclear Talks – Where are We? Everyone is waiting to see what Iran will do regarding its nuclear weapons program. (See the past five CASIL Notes for details and background). There has been no progress in denuclearization talks. There still needs to be negotiations. While it has been severely weakened, it has not stopped its belligerence and its ambitions to destabilize the region. The April Special Edition Newsletter contains key details on Iran’s nuclear weapons program and sets up “What A “Good Deal Looks Like”. A holistic and complete deal requires those elements to be met. To confirm those elements, Iran must allow inspectors on the ground at all facilities for verification. Time will tell, and the clock is ticking.
- ISIS In the United States. We do not usually address U.S. domestic issues, but this is a security concern highly worthy of a CASIL Alert. On the last day of October, the FBI arrested several suspects in Michigan for plotting a terrorist attack on/around Halloween (31 Oct). This is significant because 1) the FBI was able to interdict and stop what could have been a devastating attack on innocent civilians and 2) it shows terror cells DO EXIST INSIDE THE U.S. about which we are unaware.
o IF YOU SEE SOMETHING; SAY SOMETHING
- Afghanistan-Pakistan Border dispute. There is still no resolution. This flared up in fighting between the two countries after Afghan-based terrorists (TTP) attacked inside Pakistan. Pakistan accused Afghanistan of support to TTP (which is tacitly does, by the way; a claim Afghanistan’s Taliban leadership denies). Fighting flared quickly but then settled just as quickly as the two countries agreed to talks. Those talked failed to result in any agreement at the end of October and both sides walked out on them.
- Israel-Turkey Tension – A must watch. With everything happening in Syria, we are not ready to remove this from CASIL Alerts.
o There is tension over Turkey’s support for the new Syrian regime and pushback on Israel’s defensive-offensive operations inside Syria
- North Korea. We are keeping DPRK to CASIL Alerts this month. The DPRK has been flying just under the radar in recent months. KJU did conduct a missile test in advance of the President Trump’s October visit to South Korea. At the end of November, KJU highlighted the DPRK’s Air Force (a bunch of OLD Soviet-generation aircraft), but with a twist of alluding to its nuclear weapons delivery capability. NOTE: North Korea possesses 50-60 nuclear weapons (public record numbers).
- Houthis – We will keep them on the Alerts section as we are not ready to completely remove the Houthis due to their ability to periodically impede shipping in the Red Sea or send a missile or drone on Israel. They have been relatively quiet in the past several weeks, but that is what give us Intelligence professionals pause for what we may not be seeing.
MOVED OUT
- Palestinian State Recognition (“New In” October.) Moved OUT. Not eliminated because this issue plays in the background of many Middle East diplomatic talks. We cannot move this completely off the CASIL Alerts as this issue could play in the backdrop of the Israeli-Hamas peace talks. Refer to October CASIL Notes for details.
- Israel – Egypt. Back in September, Israel formally raised a concern to the U.S. about Egyptian military buildup in the Sinai. Egypt says it is not doing anything beyond security along the Gaza Strip to prevent Palestinians from entering Egypt. While we are MOVING IT OUT, this bears watching, and the fact that Israel is keeping this in the public discussion illustrates Israel is concerned. It’s not likely Egypt will take offensive action against Israel at this time, but that’s the same thought process back in 1967 and 1973…….caution.
- Moved OUT - U.S. – Turkey Visit – What is the Outcome? See October’s/November’s CASIL Notes for details.
- United States’ Tariffs. We are moving this out because they are at a steady-state of impact on the U.S. and Global economies. The November entry kept them in our ALERTS section because 1) a MAJOR NEW tariff was levied on India because of its trade with Russia. This is already impacting U.S.-China trade and relations, and it is only a few days old by the start of September. Also, 2) they are still impacting elements of trade between several of our allies, 3) a rush of deals were made at the end of July, and 3) not all tariff deals have been finalized.
- KSA – Pakistan Military Cooperation. MOVED OUT. In a surprising move, KSA and Pakistan signed a military cooperation agreement in September. This is significant in that it brings the two countries more closely aligned.
SPECIAL NOTICE(S):
- United States Marine Corps Birthday. On 10 November, the Marine Corps – in which I proudly served for over 21 years – celebrated our 250th Birthday. It was a great day of remembrance and celebration. I’m looking forward to 250 more. Semper Fidelis, Marines!
EVENTS:
- I had few engagements in November.
o On 10 November we were fortunate enough to participate in a charity golf tournament in which all proceeds went to Veterans’ groups. It was a great way to honor veterans – and on the 250th Birthday for the U.S. Marine Corps. Thank you
o We conducted two interviews with National and local media during November. Topics included: the Israel-Hamas peace process, the likelihood of a peace deal in the Ukraine-Russian War, and Chinese illegal import/export effort with ties to Mexican drug cartels, brining fentanyl into the U.S. and laundering money – right in our back yard.
Mark S. Chandler
SPECIAL NOTICE –
NEW BOOK. I have published a book: “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”
- It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War. This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.
- I walk the reader through the interviews, but with the perspective of my 37 years as an intelligence professional.
- It is available in e-book and paperback from Amazon.
Thank you to those who have purchased it, and your positive feedback is greatly appreciated.