CASIL Notes: February Newsletter
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CASIL NOTES
- COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –
ISSUE 11: FEBRUARY 2026
CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large. The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the “Event” with a “Summary” as to possible implications.
MONTHLY SUMMARY: As February begins, we must remain strategically focused. Many of the events/issues we highlighted throughout the past several months of 2025, and last month, continue. The Iranian protests we mentioned on January 1st in CASIL ALERTS exploded into the largest against the regime, and led to a brutal Iranian crackdown that resulted in thousands of innocent citizens’ deaths. What is next? In new developments during the last half of January, there is again new energy to resolving the Ukraine-Russia War. But we have been here before – with no positive results. It appears the Israel-Hamas cease-fire can now move into the long-awaited Cease-fire, Phase 2 with the return of the last hostage’s remains. The U.S. military operation to capture the illegal Venezuelan president (Maduro and his wife) was a textbook example of intelligence driven and phenomenal joint military operational execution.
This month’s Newsletter is another rather long summary of global events. Let’s get started.
Iran Protests – United States Possible Action(s)?
Event: This was in the “ALERTS” section last month and has now grown into a full-scale crisis. On 28 December major public protests (against the economy and government corruption) exploded across Iran spreading to several major cities (including Tehran). We said Iran will not allow this to continue, and it didn’t. As of this writing, Iran has massacred at least 10,000 civilians (CASIL estimate) and as many as 30,000 (other program estimates). In addition to the killings, thousands more were injured and imprisoned (with death likely for many). We are probably seeing the biggest threat to regime stability and security since it came to power in the 1979 revolution. In early January, President Trump threatened intervention if the killings and proposed public executions did not cease. Allegedly, Iran stopped. We assess Iran did not stop. Iran moved more military and security forces into all the cities where protests took place. Also, it shut down the internet into/out of the country (less than 1% of pre-crisis internet activity can get in or out of the country). Reference my 18 and 31 January interviews on LiveNow Fox for more details and information.
The reasons for the latest round of protests are many. This latest round revolves around the catastrophic state Iran’s economy is in. That compounds the authoritarian rule the Iranians are under and illustrates the growing unpopularity of the regime. There have been protests every few years and the government violently crushes them – like this time. But this round was the biggest and most widespread. The problems are not going away.
Summary: Dangerous times ahead. This could escalate within the next two weeks. Military action is on the table for the U.S. As a veteran of two wars in this region, I would prefer to see a diplomatic solution – always will prefer that. As the month opens there is hope the Iranian Regime will come to the table and sincerely negotiate. But, we are not dealing with rational leaders or a rational government in Iran. And diplomacy just sometimes will not work. You don’t wait until diplomacy fails to get your military ready. We must position both offensive and defensive assets in the region to prepare for any order the President may give, and that takes time (movement is underway now).
Before taking any action, the U.S. must determine WHAT its objective are. The U.S. must also have a “plan for success” should those objectives be achieved – especially if it includes removing the authoritarian Iranian regime. We must also coordinate actions and aftermath with our regional allies as 1) Iran is likely to counter any attack and 2) the ensuing chaos inside Iran is likely to create concerns across the region.
Also, in the background there has been no progress in nuclear negotiations. Iran maintains its defiance and belligerence. (See the past five CASIL Notes for details and background). While Iran has been severely weakened, it has not stopped its belligerence and its ambitions to destabilize the region – as proven in December’s threats.
- NOTE: The April 2025 Special Edition Newsletter contains key details on Iran’s nuclear weapons program and sets up “What A “Good Deal Looks Like”. A holistic and complete deal requires those elements to be met. To confirm those elements, Iran must allow inspectors on the ground at all facilities for verification. Time will tell, and the clock is ticking.
PRC (China)
Event: China moved up primarily due to internal concerns. In November’s CASIL Notes we addressed the continued purges of key leadership. Xi escalated those purges to NEW HEIGHTS around 24 December when he “purged” the PRC’s top military commander (General Zhang Youxia). This is MAJOR MOVE. The public reasoning was the typical CCP accusations of corruption (by the way, most of the Chinese Communist Party is corrupt – including Xi – as it is the way their power elite operates. You can be corrupt as long as you are loyal to Xi.). There were also reports General Zhang passed secrets to the U.S. – CASIL will not confirm nor deny that reporting). Xi continues to dangerously consolidate power and remove any potential nay-sayers to his aggression.
One point to bring out is that it is not just the senior leadership (although that is most alarming) that is being “purged/punished”. Using China’s own numbers, the number of CCP members and citizens punished has risen alarmingly from 2010 to 2025 (to almost one million). Over 60 senior military leaders have been “purged” since 2023 – including the commanders for theater commands, Rocket Forces, Navy, Air Force and Army. So much for free speech, free thought and disloyalty to Xi.
As a brief reminder, recall that at the end of December (reported in January’s CASIL Notes), China conducted a MAJOR military exercise simulating a total naval and air blockade around Taiwan. This military exercise was accompanied by strong PRC language condemning Taiwan independence and any countries’ support for that independence.
Note: China also is working to form new/renewed trade relationships with Britain, Canada and the EU. These trade deals are in direct challenge to the U.S. and are an attempt to use economic elements of national power to undercut U.S. trade and relations with its allies.
Summary: China is an excellent player of the “long-game”. Perhaps Xi is becoming impatient. Current assessments indicate China will attempt to take Taiwan by 2027. China could actually begin now as it has been rehearsing this military move for years and increasing the tempo of those rehearsals. Any attack on Taiwan will also result in destruction in China. Perhaps General Zhang new that. Perhaps he warned about that. It is highly disconcerting to remove a country’s top military commander with such a major military campaign looming. Perhaps China – and the West – just lost a voice of moderation in the Chinese leadership.
Ukraine – Russia – United States
Event: As we have been writing, Russia would continue its relentless attacks on Ukraine – it has. Hope for peace has again been elevated during January as a NEW Peace Proposal was presented and discussed in a tri-lateral (U.S. – Ukraine – Russia) meeting in late January. As peace talks gain momentum, Russia increased its attacks on civilians and Ukrainian targets – again showing its true colors. Russia even used one of it limited hypersonic missiles to attack Ukraine during the month – that represents an escalation within the escalation. This missile is also dual warhead capable (meaning it can carry both a conventional and nuclear warhead – very concerning for NATO nations.) We again urge you to read the past several months’ CASIL Notes to get full awareness of the situation. The latest sticking points include how much land Ukraine will be forced to surrender, who controls the land and Western security guarantees against future Russian aggression.
Summary: Putin is a master manipulator. He will tell you what you want to hear, while all the time working any deal to his/Russia’s advantage. History proves he cannot be trusted. (Refer to June’s Newsletter for more.). The aftermath of the Alaska summit and the failure to meet in October, the November, December and January increased attacks and pseudo-peace talk references, reinforces this history -- promises made and broken.
To stop the fighting, Russia must be made to feel pain – economically – and must face a threat – security related – before it will seriously consider sitting down at the peace table for any sincere talks.
We reiterate this statement: A peace deal without concrete and committed security guarantees will only embolden Putin. The outcome will likely be future Russian attacks but not limited to Ukraine. Those are key security concerns for the European countries especially those in Eastern and Northern Europe - closest to Russian aggression. The West cannot afford to repeat the Neville Chamberlain disastrous agreement with Hitler on the eve of WWII, and the West must honor its commitment to Ukraine unlike it did with the 1994 security guarantee against Russian aggression. History, while not a blueprint for the future, is a good forecaster of Russia’s future aggressive desires and behavior.
NATO Defensive Moves
Event: The major comment here is the security guarantees by several European countries – Britain and France among them. Russia will continue its “gray zone” warfare against European and NATO countries as it has for the past year. (Read previous CASIL Notes for background). This activity is all an off-shoot from the Ukraine-Russian war.
Summary: The multiple NATO and European leadership meetings will, unfortunately, not stop Russia’s behavior. Perhaps NATO will be more prepared for the coming incursions, but Russia will continue to pressure those countries (as illustrated with the rail-line sabotage) and continued UAV/Drone incursions in a desire to get them to stop supporting Ukraine and become complacent with Russia’s military activity.
Israel- Hamas War
Event: On 26 January, Israel confirmed it had recovered the remains of its final hostage taken in the brutal Hamas 7 October 2024 attack. This marks a somber moment in this over two-year war. The cease-fire that went into effect in early October, can perhaps now move to Phase Two. There will likely be “flare-ups” in fighting as several hundred Hamas fighters continue small-unit attacks on IDF positions near/across the “Yellow line”. Hamas has not said it will cease to fight on, nor has it finally agreed to fully disarm and leave Gaza governance – key Phase 2 components. While we can say the fighting is over, it is likely the threat on Israel from Hamas (and others) is not.
Summary: Phase two is moving now. Two key elements are: 1) a transition to Palestinian rule for Gaza and the West Bank, and 2) Hamas fighters must lay down its arms and not be part of any future Gaza Strip government. This is the most extensive and best chance at a deal since Hamas started this war over two years ago. Hamas is not ready to relinquish control. Again, the chance for peace lies in Hamas’s hands. Will they accept it?
U.S. - Venezuela:
Event: In a BOLD MOVE, the U.S. conducted a capture operation on the night of 2/3 January capturing illegal president (Maduro) – and his wife. (We interviewed with LiveNow Fox on 3 and 4 January to discuss this operation.) Operationally, this was a phenomenal Joint intelligence-driven operation (recommend you listen to Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS) mission summary from 3 Jan press conference). As a retired Marine, CASIL CEO extends his congratulations to all those involved.
The U.S. chose to leave in place the remaining members of the illegal regime. That seems counter-intuitive at first glance. CASIL’s comment to that issue is we hopefully learned out lesson for complete regime removal after our past victories (Afghanistan and Iraq). There must be some order and institutions left intact to continue daily governmental functions for daily life.
Summary: Tanker seizures continue, the new leadership is publicly resistant to U.S. pressure, but privately working with the U.S. to open a more cordial relationship and perhaps create an economic opening for U.S. oil companies and other markets. As a major side benefit, the U.S. is now able to block further encroachment in our sphere of influence by bad actors from Cuba, China, Russia and Iran ( a stated objective in the new National Security Strategy). We are not finished with the complex Venezuelan situation as it will take months to reach a level of fully cooperative interaction.
Syria:
Event: At the risk of being a broken record, Syria is not yet a stable government or country even 14 months after the overthrow of the Assad regime. Challenges remain and struggle will continue. January saw the struggle play out on the battlefield as the Syrian military attacked the SDF – a coalition of Syrian-Kurds who were our staunchest ally during the campaign against ISIS. The regime attacked SDF forces in the east and re-took control of the vast oil resources areas. They also began attacking SDF forces in the North and Northeast. The Syrian military is having success against the SDF (no has come to their defense at this time). This fighting will continue. CONCERNS: 1) The SDF has been responsible for guarding the prisons where thousands of ISIS fighters and families are held. Some have escaped (others are being evacuated to other holding areas by the U.S. and UK). 2) Turkey could take advantage of this fighting and press its own attack against the Kurds – whom it considers terrorists.
A second area of interest involving Syria involves the point we made months ago when the U.S. met with the new Syrian leader. Syria has strategic importance to the U.S. (and Israel) for peace and stability. It is also a place of great power competition. To that end, Russia wants back in as it was under the Assad regime. On 28 January, Putin hosted the Syrian leader in Moscow for bilateral talks aimed at giving Russia the access it lost after Assad’s ouster. That would undercut the U.S. attempt to gain influence.
Special Note: ISIS continues to regain momentum in Syria. The fighting between the Syrian government’s forces and the SDF put control of ISIS fighters in jeopardy. ISIS still has the capability to attack throughout the country – as proven by the 15 December attack killing three U.S. personnel. The West cannot afford to allow ISIS to gain any foothold in an unstable Syria or it will risk seeing a spread of ISIS and ISIS-inspired attacks inside Syria and Iraq.
Summary: As we have reported, Syria is a long way from a cohesive and peaceful transition and government/nation. It is also not cohesive. This new fighting illustrates just one aspect of how Syria is not a stable or secure country. We need a secure Syria and stable government. That will take time. The discussions and fledgling agreements from the November Sharaa visit will have to play out soon and the new government will need to fight ISIS and engage in positive diplomacy and relations toward Israel and against Iran. Russia obviously still desires influence in Syria. A stable Syria with reduced Iranian and Russian (and Turkey to be frank) influence will benefit the U.S. interests in the region. Time will tell how successful this new U.S.-Syrian relationship will be. (See December’s CASIL NOTES for more background.) We must maintain our diplomatic and military vigilance.
Follow-up to December U.S. Strikes on ISIS In Nigeria.
Event: We have followed this issue for a couple of months. Recall that on Christmas day, the U.S. conducted missile strikes against ISIS locations in NW/N. Central Nigeria. At the time, CASIL assessed those singular strikes would likely not stop ISIS or al-Qaeda activity. They did not. In mid-January, there were additional attacks against some churches in Nigeria.
Summary: We repeat our previous assessment. While this attack is notable, it is unlikely to deter those ISIS branches in Nigeria to stop their attacks. They have been active for over 14 years. It is vital to understand that Islamic extremism is growing across West African countries. There are ISIS and al-Qaeda groups both conducting attacks against civilians and the governments. This is a strategic concern for the U.S. as we failed to stop a similar growing al-Qaeda threat in the 1990’s that helped them go relatively unscathed until they attacked us on September 11, 2001.
CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)
NEW IN
- Possible Iran influence in…Iraqi Government Elections . This was in continue to Watch, but new information warrants bringing it to your attention. Iraq held government elections in early November. In the last few days of January, it looks as if Iraq is going “out with the old and in with the old”. Former PM Maliki looks to be the consensus candidate to lead Iraq again. The U.S. had challenges dealing with him the last time and he seems more in-line with accepting Iranian influences. This could have a potential dangerous shift in U.S.-Iraqi relations.
- NEW FIGHTING broke out in the Balochistan (Baluchistan) province in Pakistan in the last days of January. For reference, the Balochistan region also goes into Iran's southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan province and borders Afghanistan. This is a historically contentious region as the Balochs are fighting for self-governance from Pakistan (and Iran). During the latest round, hundreds of Baloch fighters, civilians and Pakistani security forces have been killed.
CONTINUE TO WATCH
- Lebanon and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH). In late November, Israel conducted several attacks into Southern Lebanon (and even one in Beirut – killed the LH military commander). These attacks were against the LH and some Hamas/Palestinian terrorist cells. The fact Israel was forced to take these actions speaks to the fact LH continues to try and refit and re-occupy its fighting locations in S. Lebanon and the Lebanese Army is ineffective at stopping it. This bears watching as Israel will not allow LH to reoccupy its positions in the South (per the Nov 2024 ceasefire agreement). Lebanon protests these attacks publicly, but privately it realizes it faces challenges to successfully stop LH push. Meanwhile, Iran is attempting to resupply LH and continues sending funds and weapons to its leading proxy group.
- NEW Red Sea THREAT….. IF U.S. attacks Iran……Houthis – We assessed the Houthis would possibly attack U.S. or international shipping in the Red Sea or Bad al-Mandeb Strait. Well, the Houthis came out and publicly stated they would do so if the U.S. attacked. Stay vigilant.
- North Korea. Two missile launches in the last week in January in response to U.S. Defense representative visit to South Korea. The DPRK is signaling the best way it knows how, its displeasure with the close U.S.-ROK-Japan ties. Expect similar activity in the near future. (NOTE: North Korea possesses 50-60 nuclear weapons [public record numbers]).
- Sudan Civil War. Fighting continues with advances being made by both sides – that’s what war is. This bears continued watching in ALERTS for another month. Recall also there have been new talks for peace, but nothing is finalized. IT is worthy to remind you that Russia is working a NEW DEAL for a PORT ACCESS with Sudan on the strategic Red Sea.
- Thailand-Cambodia border fighting. This is fluctuated over the past two months. We should have left this in CASIL Alerts. Major fighting erupted along the border for several days in December. This illustrates 1) how fragile a cease-fire can be and 2) how such a historical border dispute can simmer and escalate with little warning. It seems now, a new ceasefire has been negotiated. But, we assess this is still a fragile situation that could explode at any time.
MOVED OUT
- United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia and Yemen. It looks like it has calmed between UAE and KSA….. These traditional allies experienced a flare up tensions over the UAE’s support to one of the Yemen fighting groups (the STC - Southern Transition Council) in its efforts to take control of several areas inside Yemen. UAE’s support was counter to KSA objectives. Normally, these two Arab states are strong allies. UAE finally agreed to withdraw its support after KSA attacks on STC areas. This bears watching as this unusual tension is concerning to our overall Middle East strategy – and security.
- After two months in Alerts……We do not usually address U.S. domestic issues, but this is a security concern highly worthy of a CASIL Alert. Just before Thanksgiving, an Afghanistan National (who had been granted asylum) attacked National Guard soldiers on the streets of D.C. At this writing one soldier has died and one is in very critical condition. (Refer to news sources for case details.) The day after Thanksgiving another Afghanistan national was arrested in Texas for making on-line threats for a bomb attack. One year ago, and ISIS inspired attack happened during New Year’s celebrations in New Orleans.
o SUMMARY: NEW – With pending strikes against Iran and an ISIS resurgences in Syria, it is a good idea to keep this threat in mind. While these incidents seemingly come “out of the blue”, but there were likely some indicators of radical/abnormal behavior. We are not sounding an alert for a widespread terrorist conspiracy, however, these incidents reinforce the mantra (and personal responsible behavior) to: — IF YOU SEE SOMETHING; SAY SOMETHING —
- Trump-Xi Summit in ROK – and Beyond. Recall from December’s newsletter, President Trump and President Xi held that bi-lateral summit in South Korea in late October which resulted in several trade/tariff deals, fentanyl restrictions and rare-earth mineral deals (although nothing is finalized by signature at this writing). At this writing, however, we have not seen a net-positive trade impact for the United States. President Trump and Xi announced they will hold a summit in Spring 2026. With the new trade deals China is working (mentioned above), China could come into these talks (if they happen) with a slight trade advantage. We will watch how issues develop to see if this summit is held as a bargaining chip in international relations.
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- Afghanistan-Pakistan Border dispute. There is still no resolution. Low-level fighting continued in December. This flared up in fighting between the two countries after Afghan-based terrorists (TTP) attacked inside Pakistan. Pakistan accused Afghanistan of support to TTP (which is tacitly does, by the way; a claim Afghanistan’s Taliban leadership denies). The two countries agreed to talks. Those talks have failed to result in any agreement.
SPECIAL NOTICE(S):
- U.S. budget issues. As we got to print, the continuing resolution passed in November expired at midnight on 30 January. No agreement was reached. There is bi-partisan discussion to make this a short shutdown. However, if no budget is extended, this could have the same negative effect on national security we mentioned in October’s and November’s Newsletters.
- CASIL would like to extend a tremendous amount of gratitude to our NATO allies who fought alongside us in Afghanistan and Iraq. I served with several great units and personnel in-theater during combat and in peacetime involving great intelligence partnerships. I appreciate the sacrifice they made in support of our collective missions.
- Winter Olympics begin 6 February in Italy. CASIL extends well wishes for great competition and a safe and secure security environment.
EVENTS:
- January was a busy news month. I had several news interviews during January as events continue to evolve.
o 3 Jan With LiveNow from Fox on the U.S. Capture of Maduro – breaking news and insight.
o 4 Jan with LiveNow from Fox on the U.S. Capture of Maduro meaning and impact.
o 15 Jan with LiveNow from Fox on the Iranian crisis, what is happening and what Intelligence should be focused on at this time.
o 18 Jan with LiveNow from Fox on the Iranian crisis and what U.S. options were and the potential impact of U.S. operations against Iran.
o 29 Jan With Austin Denean of Sinclair Broadcast Service, The National Desk on the Iranian crisis and what the U.S. considerations and actions should consider.
o 31 Jan with LiveNow from Fox on the Iranian crisis and additional considerations for military action and impacts across the Middle East.
UPCOMING EVENTS
- Possible Public Round-table on the U.S.- Iran situation. No further information.
Mark S. Chandler
SPECIAL NOTICE –
BOOK. “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”.
- It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War. This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.
- It is available in e-book and paperback from Amazon.
Thank you to those who have purchased it, and your positive feedback is greatly appreciated.