CASIL Notes: January 2026 Newsletter
CASIL NOTES
- COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –
ISSUE 10: JANUARY 2026
CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large. The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the “Event” with a “Summary” as to possible implications.
MONTHLY SUMMARY: Happy New Year. We Wish you a safe and prosperous 2026. As January, and 2026, begin, we are again reminded to remain strategically focused. Many of the events/issues we highlighted throughout the past several months of 2025 continue. In new developments during the last week of December, there is new energy to resolving the Ukraine-Russia War – at least it appears so. But haven’t we been here before (about four times in the last half of 2025)? What will happen in the Israel-Hamas War and moving to the long-awaited Cease-fire, Phase 2? Russian aggression – operating in the “gray zone” – in Europe continues. An ISIS fighter killed U.S. personnel in Syria showing ISIS is far from being eliminated. The U.S. military buildup in the S. Caribbean (aimed at Venezuela) remains at a high tempo, and new operational activity seems to be on the horizon. In no surprise to CASIL Associates, the U.S. launched a cruise missile strike against ISIS in Nigeria on 25 Dec. This evolving issue mentioned in previous Newsletters’ CASIL ALERTS.
This month’s Newsletter is another rather long summary of global events. Let’s get started
Ukraine – Russia – United States
Event: As we have been writing, Russia would continue its relentless attacks on Ukraine – it has. As peace talks gain momentum, Russia increased its attacks on civilians and Ukrainian energy infrastructure targets – again showing its true colors. Hope for peace has again been elevated during the last few days of December as a NEW Peace Proposal was presented and discussed among all nations. This is part of one first discussed in November (see Dec CASIL NOTES). We again urge you to read the past several months’ CASIL Notes to get full awareness of the situation. The latest sticking points include how much land Ukraine will be forced to surrender, who controls the land and Western security guarantees against future Russian aggression.
As a reference for the peace discussions, and context, Russia controls about 1/5 of Ukraine (in the E-SE region). It has only gained about 1% of land since its initial invasion in 2022. Any ground gains are incremental at best (while suffering hundreds of thousands in casualties). Russia will continue a strong push throughout the Winter. This level of fighting will continue as Russia desires to gain the military advantage before proceeding with any type of ceasefire negotiations.
Summary: Putin is a master manipulator. He will tell you what you want to hear, while all the time working any deal to his/Russia’s advantage. History proves he cannot be trusted. (Refer to June’s Newsletter for more.). The aftermath of the Alaska summit and the failure to meet in October, the November and December increased attacks and pseudo-peace talk references, reinforces this history -- promises made and broken.
To stop the fighting, Russia must be made to feel pain – economically – and must face a threat – security related – before it will seriously consider sitting down at the peace table for any sincere talks.
We reiterate this statement: A peace deal without concrete and committed security guarantees will only embolden Putin. The outcome will likely be future Russian attacks but not limited to Ukraine. Those are key security concerns for the European countries especially those in Eastern and Northern Europe - closest to Russian aggression. The West cannot afford to repeat the Neville Chamberlain disastrous agreement with Hitler on the eve of WWII, and the West must honor its commitment to Ukraine unlike it did with the 1994 security guarantee against Russian aggression. History, while not a blueprint for the future, is a good forecaster of Russia’s future aggressive desires and behavior.
NATO Defensive Moves
Event: This was a new entry in October and continues to deserve its own section. Three months ago we alerted you to the increased activity in the Baltic Sea and Baltic states. That activity increased last month. As an off-shoot from the Ukraine-Russian war, NATO has been forced to implement multiple defensive moves to be prepared for further Russian aggression. The Russian – most likely – sabotage attack against a Polish rail line (15 November) was only a small illustration of its “gray zone” warfare. This reinforces the steadily increasing Russian military pressure against NATO’s Eastern flank, and the end of November and throughout December saw several defensive NATO actions against Russian pressure. NATO countries continued their air alerts/responses to multiple Russian missile and UAV/Drone attacks overflying their territories. The activity will continue as Russia looks to apply more military pressure.
Summary: The multiple NATO and European leadership meetings will, unfortunately, not stop Russia’s behavior. Perhaps NATO will be more prepared for the coming incursions, but Russia will continue to pressure those countries (as illustrated with the rail-line sabotage) and continued UAV/Drone incursions in a desire to get them to stop supporting Ukraine and become complacent with Russia’s military activity.
U.S. - Venezuela:
Event: Since mid-August, the U.S. has been positioning several ships in the S. Caribbean as messaging to Venezuela’s illegal president (Maduro) – and, in part, to support the Coast Guard and DEA narcotics interdiction missions. (See December and November CASIL Notes). NEW in the past several weeks was the U.S. illegal oil shipments blockade. The U.S. interdicted several “ghost tankers” transporting sanctioned Venezuelan oil. The U.S. has now conducted well-over a dozen strikes on drug cartel boats leaving Venezuela during the past three months. The U.S. allegedly (not 100% confirmed at this writing) attacked a land-based drug transshipment point on the Venezuelan coast. This is increasing the pressure. The pressure on President Maduro is mounting (NOTE: He has not been recognized as the legitimate ruler of Venezuela by two successive U.S. Administrations). This will continue as the U.S. builds pressure to stop the flow of illegal drugs AND to pressure Maduro to step down.
President Trump announced the blockade a few days before the first ship seizure. In November, he gave a warning about the “closure” of Venezuelan airspace (warning to “not fly over or near Venezuelan airspace…”). NOTE: According to International Law, a country has sovereign airspace (and seas) out to 12 NM from its coastline. Doing anything INSIDE the 12 NM would be tantamount to a violation of that nation’s sovereignty and depending on what that is, could be deemed an “act of war”.
Summary: Refer to my 21 December Interview (listed in “Events” below) for more information. The U.S. strong messaging for Maduro to step down and allow the legitimately elected leadership to take power is escalating via this new pressure. This bears close watching as wars have accidentally flared up for lesser reasons. Venezuela has yet to respond militarily and would be significantly outmatched should it choose to try. Just for your awareness, Venezuelan allies include Cuba, China, Russia and Iran.
Syria and ISIS:
Event: This event comes right from our “Continue to Watch” section of the past two months. An ISIS fighter ambushed and killed three U.S. personnel in December – two soldiers and one contract interpreter. This happened while the U.S. team was on the way to a “leadership engagement” meeting with Syrian representatives. It reminds us of two key points: 1) Our forces remain in dangerous situations regardless of what Washington may say, and 2) ISIS has not been eliminated. The U.S. did strike back against several ISIS locations. Refer to the Interviews I had on 14 Dec with LiveNow Fox and 15 Dec with Sinclair Broadcast Service for details and future projections.
Summary: As we have reported, Syria is a long way from a cohesive and peaceful transition and government/nation. This attack illustrates just one aspect of how Syria is not a stable or secure country. It is also not cohesive. We need a secure Syria and stable government. That will take time. The discussions and fledgling agreements from the November Sharaa visit will have to play out soon and the new government will need to fight ISIS and engage in positive diplomacy and relations toward Israel and against Iran. A stable Syria with reduced Iranian and Russian (and Turkey to be frank) influence will benefit the U.S. interests in the region. Time will tell how successful this new relationship will be. (See December’s CASIL NOTES for more background.) We must maintain our military vigilance.
Nigeria – U.S. Strikes ISIS.
Event: We raised the Nigeria issue during the past two CASIL Notes. On Christmas day, the U.S. conducted missile strikes against ISIS locations in NW/N. Central Nigeria. This follows a President Trump threat to attack if ISIS didn’t stop killing/attacking Christians. (Please see the 27 December interview with LiveNow from Fox for more details and insight.)
NOTE: There is a lot of nuance to this issue. For months there has a lot of reporting of Christian “genocide” in Nigeria. While we are not international lawyers, we are not saying this is a “genocide”, but it is highly disconcerting. Nigeria is roughly split between Christians and Muslims (a slight Christian majority). The key issues: 1) Boko Haram (and other Islamist extremist groups [ISIS- West Africa and a relatively new group named the Lakurawa group) are killing Christians (40,000+ since 2009), and 2) have been trying to take over major parts of Nigeria for over a decade; and 3) the Nigerian government is ineffective in stopping the Islamists terrorists from killing and kidnapping. This is one of the early signals of a failing government and this issue bears close watching. (For a detailed history of the killings and the warring factions, please research Nigerian event for the past 15 years.)
Summary: While this attack is notable, it is unlikely to deter those ISIS branches in Nigeria to stop their attacks. They have been active for over 14 years. It is vital to understand that Islamic extremism is growing across West African countries. There are ISIS and al-Qaeda groups both conducting attacks against civilians and the governments. This is a strategic concern for the U.S. as we failed to stop a similar growing al-Qaeda threat in the 1990’s that helped them go relatively unscathed until they attacked us on September 11, 2001.
Israel- Hamas War
Event: The Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the U.S. on 29 December to discuss the cease-fire’s status. The cease-fire went into effect in early October. They are still in Phase one. There was a strong U.S. push to move to Phase two. Yes, there have been “flare-ups” in fighting as several hundred Hamas fighters continue small-unit attacks on IDF positions near/across the “Yellow line”. Hamas has vowed to fight on. During the visit, both PM Netanyahu and President Trum agreed to give Hamas two months to disarm. (NOTE: It’s a cease-fire which does not mean there will not be breakdowns. Success in the long term is negotiating Phase two.)
Summary: Phase two and beyond are in negotiations. There has been little progress in over two months. Two key elements are: 1) a transition to Palestinian rule for Gaza and the West Bank, and 2) Hamas fighters must lay down its arms and not be part of any future Gaza Strip government. This is the most extensive and best chance at a deal since Hamas started this war over two years ago. Hamas is not ready to relinquish control. Again, the chance for peace lies in Hamas’s hands. Will they accept it?
PRC (China)
Event: We kept China in the main section due to its relative overall threat to U.S. national security and we have not felt it was time to move it down to the CASIL ALERTS – for good reason. China messaged Japan, Taiwan and the U.S. throughout December for their support to Taiwan independence. At the end of December, China conducted a MAJOR military exercise simulating a total naval and air blockade around Taiwan. This is not the first time such an exercise, and it was one of the largest to date. This military exercise was accompanied by strong PRC language condemning Taiwan independence and any countries’ support for that independence.
This is an excellent example of how China maintains its international pressure against the U.S. and its regional allies. It continues to use its navy for messaging against regional allies in the SCS and Western Pacific. It continues its diplomatic messaging about interference by the U.S. and its allies in what China considers its “sphere of influence” in S. and S.E. Asia. These are not just empty Chinese statements, they continue repeating the same messaging 1) because they mean it and 2) because if they say it enough, it will become the dominant “fact” of the events.
Summary: China is an excellent player of the “long-game”. We are seeing increased Chinese messaging both against U.S. (with trade talks in the background) and our allies in the region. It is important to monitor these exercises. China is messaging, yes, but it is also using them to “desensitize” the U.S. and our allies so that we put little credence in these exercises – until they are not an exercise. Stay alert. We expect this trend to continue in the coming months.
CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)
NEW IN
- Thailand-Cambodia border fighting. We should have left this in CASIL Alerts. Major fighting erupted along the border for several days in December. This illustrates 1) how fragile a cease-fire can be and 2) how such a historical border dispute can simmer and escalate with little warning.
- United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia and Yemen. These traditional allies are experiencing tensions over the UAE’s support to one of the Yemen fighting groups (the STC - Southern Transition Council) in its efforts to take control of several areas inside Yemen. UAE’s support was counter to KSA objectives. Normally, these two Arab states are strong allies. UAE finally agreed to withdraw its support after KSA attacks on STC areas. This bears watching as this unusual tension is concerning to our overall Middle East strategy – and security.
CONTINUE TO WATCH
- We do not usually address U.S. domestic issues, but this is a security concern highly worthy of a CASIL Alert. Just before Thanksgiving, an Afghanistan National (who had been granted asylum) attacked National Guard soldiers on the streets of D.C. At this writing one soldier has died and one is in very critical condition. (Refer to news sources for case details.) The day after Thanksgiving another Afghanistan national was arrested in Texas for making on-line threats for a bomb attack. One year ago, and ISIS inspired attack happened during New Year’s celebrations in New Orleans.
o SUMMARY: These incidents seemingly come “out of the blue”, but there were likely some indicators of radical/abnormal behavior. We are not sounding an alert for a widespread terrorist conspiracy, however, these incidents (combined with October’s ISIS incident in Michigan) reinforce the mantra (and personal responsible behavior) to:
— IF YOU SEE SOMETHING; SAY SOMETHING —
- Lebanon and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH). In late November, Israel conducted several attacks into Southern Lebanon (and even one in Beirut – killed the LH military commander). These attacks were against the LH and some Hamas/Palestinian terrorist cells. The fact Israel was forced to take these actions speaks to the fact LH continues to try and refit and re-occupy its fighting locations in S. Lebanon and the Lebanese Army is ineffective at stopping it. This bears watching as Israel will not allow LH to reoccupy its positions in the South (per the Nov 2024 ceasefire agreement). Lebanon protests these attacks publicly, but privately it realizes it faces challenges to successfully stop LH push. Meanwhile, Iran is attempting to resupply LH and continues sending funds and weapons to its leading proxy group.
- Iran seized another tanker in late December. This follows its seizure of the Marshall Islands flagged oil tanker in mid-November and held its crew hostage. At this writing, Iran has yet to release the tanker. This is not the first time Iran has done this (this activity dates back decades) and is messaging when Iran does not like how issues are developing in international relations (think nuclear weapons negotiations, U.S. sanctions, Israeli pressure, etc…). This bears watching as Iran could disrupt significant oil flow through this vital (and narrow) passage should it take more aggressive action.
- Sudan Civil War. This bears continued watching in ALERTS for another month. There are rumors of NEW TALKS for peace, but nothing is finalized. NOTE: Russia is working a NEW DEAL for a PORT ACCESS with Sudan on the strategic Red Sea.
o In fighting, from late October, a rebel militia called the RSF finally captured (after 18 months) a key government stronghold (El Fasher) in the Darfur region. The reason we chose now to publish this issue is the strength (and outside support) the RSF has generated in recent weeks and months. (See October’s CASIL NOTES for details.) This fighting leads to further destabilizing the country (one of the largest in Africa) as controlling the Darfur region could lead to a failed state. Sudan has a strategic port location on the Red Sea and access to key minerals and energy resources.
- Iran. No Progress in nuclear negotiations. New public Iranian threats to U.S. and Israel near the end of December. Iran is increasing its belligerence. (See the past five CASIL Notes for details and background). There has been no progress in denuclearization talks. U.S. and Israel both threatened retaliation should Iran act on any threats. There still needs to be nuclear negotiations. While it has been severely weakened, it has not stopped its belligerence and its ambitions to destabilize the region – as proven in December’s threats.
o NOTE: There has been a significant increase in public protests (against the economy and government corruption) inside Iran during the last few days of December. These protests spread to several major cities. Iran will not allow this to continue. It will allow some protest to “let off steam”, but if they continue, expect to see a major Iranian internal security crackdown.
o The April Special Edition Newsletter contains key details on Iran’s nuclear weapons program and sets up “What A “Good Deal Looks Like”. A holistic and complete deal requires those elements to be met. To confirm those elements, Iran must allow inspectors on the ground at all facilities for verification. Time will tell, and the clock is ticking.
- Afghanistan-Pakistan Border dispute. There is still no resolution. Low-level fighting continued in December. This flared up in fighting between the two countries after Afghan-based terrorists (TTP) attacked inside Pakistan. Pakistan accused Afghanistan of support to TTP (which is tacitly does, by the way; a claim Afghanistan’s Taliban leadership denies). The two countries agreed to talks. Those talks have failed to result in any agreement.
- Israel-Turkey Tension – A must watch. With everything happening in Syria, we are not ready to remove this from CASIL Alerts.
o There is tension over Turkey’s support for the new Syrian regime and pushback on Israel’s defensive-offensive operations inside Syria
- North Korea. We are keeping DPRK to CASIL Alerts this month. The DPRK has been flying just under the radar in recent months. KJU did conduct a missile test in advance of the President Trump’s October visit to South Korea. At the end of November, KJU highlighted the DPRK’s Air Force (a bunch of OLD Soviet-generation aircraft), but with a twist of alluding to its nuclear weapons delivery capability. NOTE: North Korea possesses 50-60 nuclear weapons (public record numbers).
- Houthis – We will keep them on the Alerts section as we are not ready to completely remove the Houthis due to their ability to periodically impede shipping in the Red Sea or send a missile or drone on Israel. This new tension between Saudi Arabia and the UAE could have a by-product effect to instigate some sort of Houthi action. They have been relatively quiet in the past several weeks, and that is what give us Intelligence professionals pause for what we may not be seeing.
- Trump-Xi Summit in ROK – and Beyond. Recall from December’s newsletter, President Trump and President Xi held that bi-lateral summit in South Korea in late October which resulted in several trade/tariff deals, fentanyl restrictions and rare-earth mineral deals (although nothing is finalized by signature at this writing). At this writing, however, we have not seen a net-positive trade impact for the United States. President Trump and Xi announced they will hold a summit in Spring 2026. We will watch how issues develop to see if this summit is held as a bargaining chip in international relations.
MOVED OUT
- Iraqi Government Elections. Iraq held government elections in early November. It has a Parliamentary-style government. It was a relatively secure election, BUT, (here’s the rub)there was no clear-cut leader and some of the major opposition includes Iranian-backed/controlled candidates. Iran has long pushed for deeper control/involvement inside Iraq. How this government shakes out, will indicate the strength of Iranian influence and could also indicate future stability in Iraq.
SPECIAL NOTICE(S):
- Welcome to 2026. Great year ahead for us and the United States – The United States will celebrate our 250th Birthday this year.
- U.S. budget issues. As a reminder, the continuing resolution passed in November expires at the end of January. If no budget is extended, this could have the same negative effect on national security we mentioned in October’s and November’s Newsletters.
EVENTS:
I had few news interviews during December as events evolved.
o 14 Dec With LiveNow from Fox on ISIS Attack on U.S. troops in Syria
o 15 Dec With Austin Denean of Sinclair Broadcast Service, The National Desk on the same subject.
o 21 Dec with LiveNow from Fox on the U.S. blockade of Venezuela’s “Shadow Oil Tankers” and on the U.S. Strikes on ISIS in Syria.
o 27 Dec with LiveNow from Fox on the 25 Dec U.S. strikes on ISIS in Nigeria.
Mark S. Chandler
SPECIAL NOTICE –
BOOK. I published my book: “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”, back in July.
- It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War. This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.
- I walk the reader through the interviews, but with the perspective of my 37 years as an intelligence professional.
- It is available in e-book and paperback from Amazon.
Thank you to those who have purchased it, and your positive feedback is greatly appreciated.