CASIL NOTES - July Newsletter
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CASIL NOTES
MAKING THE COMPLEX, COMPREHENSIBLE
ISSUE 4: JULY 2025
CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large. The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the Event with a summary as to possible implications.
SPECIAL NOTICE –
NEW BOOK. I have published a book: “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”
- It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War. This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.
- I walk the reader through the interviews, but with the perspective of my 37 years as an intelligence professional.
- I look forward to your comments and feedback as you revisit one of the major events of the 21st Century.
- It is available in e-book and paperback from Amazon. Available Here
MONTHLY SUMMARY: As July begins, the major event facing us is the status of Iran’s nuclear weapons program after 12 days of Israeli attacks and one major United States bombing mission on critical sites. We also see many of the same events from the past three months simmering - Middle East Turmoil, Ukraine War, and Chinese assertiveness against its neighbors.
Iran (and United States’ and Israeli Attacks) – Where are We?
Event: Israel began a major air campaign against the Iranian nuclear program on 12/13 June. The United States then conducted a major airstrike (highly successful) against Iran’s critical nuclear facilities on 22 June.
Here’s how June’s newsletter ended: “Washington has threatened military action to end Iran’s nuclear weapons program if Iran does not stop it voluntarily. Iran says it will not give up its nuclear weapons program (which it also simultaneously denies having). Those positions create an obvious impasse. The next few weeks will determine this issue’s trajectory for the next several months.”
Within two weeks of the above summary, we witnessed major military operations to degrade, destroy and set back Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons. To summarize both Israel’s and the United States successful air strikes would take several pages. I will refer you to CASIL’s Home Page (https://mark-chandler.com), for interviews I conducted explaining the operational details, impacts and future projections. Those interviews were on: June – 14, 22, 23, 24 and 28.
I will point out here, however, that those military operations were successful, conducted with extreme professionalism under dangerous conditions. This should be recognized for the professionalism exhibited by those putting themselves in harm’s way when their nation calls on them.
Summary: What is next? A ceasefire went into effect three days after the United States attack. That’s probably a good thing for Iran as it was taking a severe military thrashing due to Israeli operations. That ceasefire, however, is tenuous.
We do not know the extent of damage across the entirety of Iran’s program. The missions were SUCCESSFUL. The complete and formal assessment (conducted through what we call Battle Damage Assessment [BDA]), could take weeks. At this writing, I am willing to assess there was significant damage to Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan. Any work there will not occur for some time. Israel’s strikes hit several other key facilities that also further set back Iran’s program.
NEGOTIATIONS – There still needs to be negotiations. Iran has still not agreed to abandon its nuclear weapons program (that it denies it has), nor has it changed its aggressive approach to its neighbors. While it has been severely weakened, it has not stopped its belligerence and its ambitions to destabilize the region. Take a look at the Special Edition Newsletter we published in mid-April about this issue. That Special Edition Newsletter contains key details on Iran’s nuclear weapons program and sets up “What A “Good Deal Looks Like”. A holistic and complete deal requires those elements to be met. To confirm those elements, Iran must allow inspectors on the ground at all facilities for verification. Additionally, Iran must agree to all terms to end its nuclear weapons program. We will have to see if Iran agrees. At this writing, and with a ceasefire in place, we assess Iran may feel emboldened to not agree. Time will tell.
Deterrence – We want to address what it is as understanding deterrence is important after the United States attack on Iran – and in looking at our other adversaries.
Deterrence Explained: In order for deterrence to be effective, there are three key elements: 1) You must have the CAPABILITY to use whatever method(s) you have, 2) You must have the WILL to use those capabilities, and 3) The belief by the adversary that you have the capability and the will. If your adversary does not believe you have the capability and will to USE it, then the adversary will not be deterred – thus, no deterrence.
This attack goes a long way in re-establishing deterrence! It is something the United States lost over the previous four years. Secondary, but vitally important is the MAJOR MESSAGING to our adversaries – China, Russia and North Korea. The president backed words with strong United States military action. That should serve notice to those adversaries that we will back up our words with action. That in itself could help to de-escalate future aggression by those countries contemplating it.
NOTE: Iranian Retaliation Still Possible:
On 30 June, a senior Iranian cleric issued a “fatwa” against President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu. A fatwa is a religious decree guiding Muslims on what to do. Normally, it is an interpretation of some element of Islamic laws or interpretation. Terrorist organizations/governments abuse the fatwa and issue them as a call to action against their enemies. In part, it says, “…it is necessary for all Muslims around the world to make these enemies regret their words and mistakes…”
We would be remiss if we did not warn you of the possible Iranian retaliation. While there is a public ceasefire, Iran is still stinging from the attacks. Iran maintains a long memory. Therefore, you should be aware Iran retaliation could take on many forms – cyber action/attacks against the United States or Israel, using its vast network or proxies and terrorist entities (cells) to attack those same interests wherever they may be (Europe, Middle East, Asia, and even the United States). The more visible retaliation (missiles and drones) will likely be reserved for a resumption in fighting. IF YOU SEE SOMETHING, SAY SOMETHING.
Ukraine - Russia
Event: Because of the focus on the attacks on Iran, Russian president Putin was able to fly under the radar a bit – at least from the media. June ended with one of the largest Russian attacks on Ukraine since the start of the war in February 2022. Russia launched over 500 missiles and UAVs (Drones) against Ukraine. This attack was larger than the response I predicted Russia would conduct (which it did) to Ukraine’s attack that destroyed several Russian long-range bombers in late May. Russia used over 350 missiles and drones in that attack in June. Unfortunately, this level of fighting will continue as Russia desires to gain the military advantage before proceeding with any type of ceasefire negotiations. Speaking of ceasefire talks, the U.S. still hasn’t gained any traction on those. We continue to assess, that if there is to be one (which does not look likely soon), it will – without a doubt – be more in Russia’s favor, or Russia (Putin) will not agree.
Summary: As a reminder, Putin is a master manipulator. He will tell you what you want to hear, while all the time working any deal to his/Russia’s advantage. History proves he cannot be trusted. (Refer to June’s Newsletter for more.)
I will also reiterate this statement: A peace deal without security guarantees for Ukraine will only embolden Putin. The outcome will likely be future Russian attacks and not limited to Ukraine. Those are key concerns for the European countries especially those in Eastern and Northern Europe - closest to Russian aggression. History, while not a blueprint for the future, is a good forecaster of Russia’s future aggressive behavior.
Israel- Hamas War
Event: The continued fighting. June ended pretty much the same as May and April - more fighting, less talking. As of the start of July, there is a fledgling discussion for new talks. The basics of those talks are Israel wants Hamas to release all hostages, surrender and disarm. Hamas wants Israel to completely stop military operations and fully withdraw from Gaza. Those positions are completely opposite one another. This equates to no deal. Israel will increase its military operational tempo and begin to control more areas of Gaza in the coming weeks. The humanitarian crisis has eased with Israel-supported and U.S.-led efforts (with Israel providing overwatch security) of getting humanitarian supplies to the civilians. Hamas, however, continues to try and block or slow that relief.
Summary: Negotiations may start; the fighting will continue. Hamas continues to use the hostages as a strong emotional bargaining chip against Israel. Israel continues to use military force to push Hamas to the negotiating table. Israel’s continued military pressure is having a major negative effect on Hamas, but it still not enough to force Hamas to fully surrender. Unfortunately, Hamas is willing to suffer even more – and make the Palestinian people suffer – before it will agree to a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Israel will continue its military campaign.
PRC (China)
Event: We are keeping PRC-Philippines on our alert radar. China continued its assertive activity directed against the Philippines in the contested South China Sea (SCS). This is three straight months of such behavior. During June, China even behaved aggressively against Japanese navy ships operating in international waters between Japan and China. We cannot afford to become complacent in watching China.
Summary: With everything else happening in the world (Ukraine and the Middle East), China has been able to almost fly under the radar. We are seeing increased Chinese messaging both against U.S. and our allies in the region. We expect this trend to continue in the coming months. China will take notice of the United States attacks on Iran. That the United States took action will figure into any calculous China makes in moving forward. We still estimate the PRC will continue using some strong-arm naval assets against the Philippines or other SCS claimants.
North Korea (DPRK)
Event: Like China, the DPRK has been trying to fly under the radar. However, the DPRK leader, Kim Jong-Un (KJU), cannot go too long without letting everyone know he is active and someone to whom attention should be given. During June, he launched a series of missiles as a show of force. This was a small demonstration not as much as we anticipated in past newsletters.
Summary: We will keep North Korea on our higher alert radar for this month. We will note that with the highly successful United States attack on Iran’s nuclear program, the DPRK will likely review its internal security procedures for its own nuclear weapons (they have approximately 60 bombs) and will certainly not be receptive to any outreach for negotiating away that leverage.
CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)
- India-Pakistan. We moved this to the CASIL ALERTS section. The ceasefire from May seems to be holding strong. However, with the historical tension between these two adversaries, it is prudent to keep them on the CASIL radar. If you need details, refer to the May Newsletter.
- The United States mediated a historic peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. It was signed in Washington on 27 June.
o This hopefully ends decades of genocide, fighting and destabilization between these two adversaries that has been happening since the 1990’s.
o A critical component of this deal not to be overlooked is the access the United States gains to vital “rare earth minerals” that have become critical to today’s technology. In addition to stopping the fighting, this part of the deal is of strategic importance to the United States.
- U.S. – Middle East Relations.
o After a great deal of hoopla surrounding President Trump’s May visit resulting in significant trade and financial agreements, we are still on the lookout for any significant diplomatic agreements to follow in the near future.
o A second element is the change in dynamics since the United States strike on Iran and how that weakened a threat that is common to all Arab states. They are breathing a collective sigh of relief.
- United States’ Tariffs. These moved into our ALERTS section because 1) they are still impacting elements of trade between several of our allies, 2) not all tariff deals have been finalized.
- Houthi Rebels in Yemen. They have been quiet. Only a token missile launch from them after Israeli and United States attacks on Iran. We’re not quite ready to pull them from our ALERTS section as they pose a moderate risk to international shipping traffic and United States assets in the region.
- Internal Syrian instability during new government formation.
o This continues as an unresolved issue. Sectarian fighting continues.
o After President Trump agreed to re-establish relations with Syria that were cut off during the Syrian civil war, the United States began the formal process to open diplomatic access. This is a significant move. It is also a positive strategic move to gain better influence in this region and in a country that could eventually help the U.S.
o The U.S. conducted a further drawdown of forces in Syria and wants to withdraw more.
o Do not forget ISIS is alive and well and still operating there.
SPECIAL NOTICE –
- Just a quick note recognizing that the branches of the United States military are meeting their recruiting goals. This is the first time in a very long time.
o Thank you to the young men and women who are making this sacrifice and taking on this high honor of serving your nation!
United States of America’s Birthday – This July 4th, America turns 249 years old. Happy Birthday America!!!!
Mark S. Chandler