CASIL NOTES - MAY Newsletter
Enjoy reading CASIL notes on the site or download the brief here.
CASIL NOTES
- COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –
ISSUE 14: MAY 2026
CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large. The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the “Event” with a “Summary” as to possible implications.
!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU FOR FOLLOWING US !!!!!
NOW YOU CAN ALSO FOLLOW OUR PODCAST –
!!!!!!!!! STRATEGIC AFFAIRS WITH MARK CHANDLER !!!!!!!!
MONTHLY SUMMARY: We open April with continued major fighting in the Middle East. The difference in opening May is we are in a CEASE FIRE. How long will it last? What will be the outcome? Both are unknows, but the stakes for today and tomorrow are high. This is the largest U.S. military operation in the Middle East since fighting ISIS in the early 2010’s and our 2003 invasion of Iraq. This newsletter will try to restore our traditional approach after last month’s break with format. But there are key aspects of the war that must be addresses. As there are still many events happening around the world, we will cover (albeit BRIEFLY) those. As always, this argues for a continued “strategic approach/awareness”. We should maintain awareness of the Ukraine-Russia War and fledgling talks (no progress); the U.S. – China summit this month and a Mali-wide Islamic Jihadist attack.
U.S. and Israel War on Iran
Event: After almost six weeks of sustained combat operations, the U.S. and Israel agreed to a cease-fire with Iran on 8 April. As of this writing, that ceasefire has been extended indefinitely. The military operations against Iran were some of the most successful in U.S. military history – accomplishing the military objectives leadership established. The advantage at the beginning of the ceasefire was all to the U.S. and Israel.
In the same first weeks, Iran launched thousands of ballistic missiles and attack drones/UAVs at U.S. bases, Israel and an overwhelmingly surprising number against the Arab states. Iran could not directly counter the U.S. or Israel military capabilities, so it asymmetrically turned this into an economic fight by attacking the oil infrastructure and civilian targets across the region, AND CLOSING the Strait of Hormuz.
There was one round (a day actually) of long ceasefire talks that resulted in no deal as Iran refused to budge and is likely in some decision-making challenge. Subsequent efforts to talk have all faltered due to Iran’s intransigence. The more pressure Iran can put on those countries and the global economy, the more it feels there will be enough pressure on the U.S. and Israel to reach a “deal”. Is that working? Time will tell.
The military operations focused on taking out Islamic Regime leadership in the desire to create a weaker regime. Perhaps the opposite has happened. Who is in charge? As we enter May, this is our assessment:
- The regime group is possibly more radical and more entrenched – likely due to the military pressure we had over them. The proverbial “back against the wall” idea.
- They’re emboldened and have had time to breathe and consolidate.
- Who is calling the shots on making whatever deal: First, with whom are we negotiating? Who is making the decisions for Iran? I would argue it isn’t the “Supreme Leader” as it had been before 28 Feb.
o The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps) is the leading voice in how Iran will negotiate and how it will continue to fight.
o Even more entrenched than when I’ve made that statement previously.
- The power is coalescing around IRGC Gen Vahidi . Extreme hardliner, IRGC veteran and leader and former IRGC-QF commander – before Qasem Soleimani.
o He’s not a compromising individual and will fight to the end.
The Strait of Hormuz (SoH) has become a critical element in a “standoff” between the U.S. and Iran. Who controls it? How? What is the impact?
Iran is trying to regain some of the leverage it had when it originally “closed” the SoH. The U.S. gained the advantage when it announced the Blockade. That’s still in effect and we say more ships passing earlier today.
Iran wants to prove it still has the advantage.
The economic impact is felt far beyond the SoH. Iran will continue to apply that pressure on the world to apply pressure on the U.S.
We stated last month this operation could last up to several weeks. In UPDATING our assessment – after five weeks of fighting before the ceasefire, we assess this could go another full month or two with combat operations needs to drive Iran sincerely to the negotiating table. Why do we assess that?
FOR CURRENT AND MORE DETAILED information on the fighting and probabilities, refer to current news interviews (April 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 11, 15, 18, 24 and 25) . Also, please refer to the Special Edition Newsletter we published on 18 February. All posted on the CASIL Website).
Will there be talks and what is a good deal?
The talks are up in the air. Iran feels it can buy time and drag this out, and it is right now. - The Islamic Regime needs to recognize it is in a "no win position at this time".
Unfortunately, the Islamis regime does not feel that yet. But when talks happen, what should be the discussions? Here is a possible list of key points and their impact/meaning:
1. Eliminate nuclear weapons threat, (they are probably set back 5-10 years just based on the military success we have had)
- NEED VERIFICATION and ENFORCEMENT mechanism. Unimpeded, unannounced and freedom of movement
- Extract all enriched Uranium
- Do not forget, Iran still has DESIRE for weapons.
2. Eliminate/degrademissile/drone threat and ability to offensively launch attacks on the region.
- Have degraded their capability, but they likely still have hundreds of missiles and drones (if not low 1,000’s)
- Their military industrial industry has been so severely degraded, it will take years to rebuild the capability.
3. End Iran’s 47 years of destabilizing the Middle East and us.
- Must do this through neutralizing Iran’s proxies’ capabilities: Lebanese Hezbollah, Iranian-Backed Shia Militias (IBSM) in Iraq, Houthis and Hamas.
4. Stop the economic blackmail and future POTENTIAL blackmail and stranglehold Iran has on global energy market through its control of the SoH.
5. What about allowing Iran to re-arm? No one has mentioned this. We think that should be addressed as the Islamic Regime will seek to regain its military supremacy to be able to pressure the region once the U.S. and Israel stop attacking. Something needs to be put in place that limits of doesn’t allow that – with verification.
Worth REPEATING from last month’s CASIL Notes mentioned the need to think at the Strategic, Operational and Tactical Levels of War and Diplomacy. That is still critical – refer to that issue for details.
REMAIN VIGILANT. The 29 April London terror attack on Jews serves as a reminder of the potential for attacks outside the Middle East. If combat operations begin again, the U.S. and its interests worldwide are not out of a threat. There are potential sleeper cells in the U.S., Europe and other Middle East countries. We must be EVER-VIGILANT!
SEE SOMETHING; SAY SOMETHING
As with all major crises, there are sides lining up to support or oppose. Our mission is not to tell you which way to lean as it is TOO LATE. That is an academic argument to make you feel better. If you want to argue the right/wrong of the fight, relegate that to history class, the living room or bar talk. The focus now should be on the best outcome for the United States and the safety of our forces.
We are in the fight and now we must push this to a conclusion that benefits our national interests, our security and the security for the region. You can also see that the vast ranging economic impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure/control by Iran is having. In our assessment through 40+ years in watching this challenge, that threat must be eliminated.
NOW ON TO THE RUGLAR NEWSLETTER
PRC (China)
Event: China remains as a major strategic threat to the U.S. national security. You can believe China is studying the fight against Iran with front-row interest in see how we employ our warfighting capabilities. The success Iran is having against the U.S. and Israel with ballistic missiles and drones is a key learning point. President Xi is likely demanding increased production in both those categories of weapons systems. The economic pressure exhibited via the Strait of Hormuz control is a key learning point for China in applying leverage.
In other developments, China is building another “island” in the strategic South China Sea (SCS) – a contested major shipping transit region. The small spot called Antelope Reef (that’s what they are until China finished building the island) looks as though it will have an airfield, missile launch sites and a small naval facility. This is similar to what China built years ago on Mischief Reef.
President Xi, hosted the leader of the Taiwanese opposition party (a pro-China party) during April. That was about strategic messaging to Taiwan – its anti-Chinese government, and the Taiwanese people – and the U.S.
COUNTER-CHINA. It is not all about China making moves. In some good developments meant to deter and counter PRC regional influence, Japan is fortifying several of its SE islands. These are small areas that can house at least some defensive missile systems. The U.S.-Philippines are conducting a new series of joint military exercises to promote combined training and interoperability in the event of war.
Summary: The Trump-Xi summit is scheduled for May 14th. Will Trump go as a victor or will he still be in the fight? Either way, he will face a Xi who continues his leadership purges – the third Politburo member was sacked in the past six months. As we said, these purges are a MAJOR MOVE. Xi has dangerously consolidated power and removed any potential nay-sayers to his aggression.
China is an excellent player of the “long-game”. But perhaps Xi is becoming impatient. Current assessments indicate China will attempt to take Taiwan by 2027. China could actually begin now as it has been rehearsing this military move for years and increasing the tempo of those rehearsals. The buildup in the SCS is China’s way of positioning itself to control the region should any conflict happen.
Ukraine – Russia – United States
Event: Russia continued its relentless attacks on Ukraine – over the past two months, Russia has increased its level of attacks. We keep seeing “one of the largest in the war’s history” only to be surpassed a few days later by another “one of the largest in the war’s history”. Russia is fully engaged in its annual Spring offensive now. No major gains at this time, and time will tell if they can gain anything more than the extra 1% of Ukrainian territory they have gained in four years of fighting. Russia is hoping the Iran fight distracts the world’s attention from its war on Ukraine. We again urge you to read the past several months’ CASIL Notes to get full awareness of the situation.
NOTE: On 27 April, Putin met with Iran’s foreign minister and pledged Russian support in its fight against the U.S. and Israel. We do not see overt military assistance as part of this. However, Russia continues providing intelligence to Iran to assist in targeting U.S. bases and facilities in the Middle East and to also target Israeli sites. It may deny this, but it is taking place to help Iran have better targeting.
Summary: Putin is a master manipulator. He will tell you what you want to hear, while all the time working any deal to his/Russia’s advantage. To stop the fighting, Russia must be made to feel pain – economically – and must face a threat – security related – before it will seriously consider sitting down at the peace table for any sincere talks.
MALI --- NEW --- NEW
Event: On 25 April, Jihadist insurgent groups affiliated with al-Queda and ISIS conducted wide-scale attacks across Mali. They simultaneously attacked in several of Mali’s major cities in a bold and shocking series of brutal attacks. Those attacks continued for several days as Mali’s military struggled to push back on the attackers. The Russian government-contracted mercenaries were of no value in helping stop the attacks.
Summary: We have written about the continued growth in Islamic extremist groups’ growing influence in Africa. We also touched on the fact that several African nations (Mali being one) chose Russia over the U.S. and France to militarily partner with to help stem the growing threat. While the U.S. and France were legitimately working to help those nations, Russia is merely there for its own interests and has not conducted any real coordinated and thought-out counter-terrorism campaign. This threat will continue to grow if those governments do not take lasting and coordinated efforts to stop the spread of radical Islamists in their countries. There will be more attacks like this. Remember, many nations (including the U.S.) ignored al-Queda’s (1990’s) and ISIS’ (2000’s) rise to power and influence thinking this was not their problem.
CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)
NEW IN
United Arab Emirates (UAE)
EVENT: At the end of April UAE announced it is withdrawing from OPEC. This was a surprising move – in the middle of the energy crisis of the Iranian War -- OR was it? While this will give UAE a little more freedom to set its oil production threshold (the impact on the world market cannot yet be determined), it also establishes a bit more independence and autonomy for UAE. Recall also the UAE is an original member of the Abraham Accords signed in 2020. UAE has also suffered the most Iranian missile and drone attacks since the war began – more than even Israel.
SUMMARY: We take you back to the January/February CASIL Notes, and combine the tension then to the UAE OPEC move and there could be cause for concern. These traditional allies experienced a flare up tensions over the UAE’s support to one of the Yemen fighting groups (the STC - Southern Transition Council) in its efforts to take control of several areas inside Yemen. UAE’s support was counter to KSA objectives. Normally, these two Arab states are strong allies. This CERTAINLY bears watching as this unusual tension is concerning to our overall Middle East strategy – and security – and could reshape Middle East dynamics that have been in place for decades
Moved from the main section: ---------Israel- Hamas War
Event: In a significant development, the first elections of any kind in Gaza since 2006 and the first Palestinian polls since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 were conducted in April. The election included parts of the West Bank. The Palestinian Authority’s Fatah party won the majority. We are in as solidly as possible for Phase Two.There will likely be “flare-ups” in fighting as several hundred Hamas fighters continue small attacks on IDF positions near/across the “Yellow line”.
Summary: The elections were significant, BUT, will Hamas abide by anything to do with the Gaza Strip? That is unlikely since Hamas took control of, and has governed, the Gaza Stip by force since 2006 when it pushed out……..Fatah.
Phase two is moving now. Two key elements are: 1) a transition to Palestinian rule for Gaza and the West Bank, and 2) Hamas fighters must lay down its arms and not be part of any future Gaza Strip government. This is the most extensive and best chance at a deal since Hamas started this war over two years ago. Hamas is not ready to relinquish control.
We remain concerned that thenew fighting with Hamas’ ally, Iran, may create some new attacks by remaining Hamas fighters. Must keep an eye on this.
Actions in NATO and Europe.
Event: Back in September/October 2025 we commented, “…we haven’t seen this much air and naval activity in E. Europe and the Baltics since the old Soviet Union days – a playbook Putin knows well...”Well, Putin is still playing the game. England revealed it conducted significant anti-Submarine operations (with NATO allies) against three Russian submarines operating against critical British undersea infrastructure in the North Atlantic.
In late April, after the critical election ouster of Viktor Orban from Hungary (while if not an ally for Russia, a very good friend), the EU cleared the way for a $90B aid package for Ukraine. This illustrates a little more solidarity against Russia’s naked aggression and support for Ukraine.
Summary: Russia will continue its “gray zone” warfare against European and NATO countries as it has for the past year. (Read previous CASIL Notes for background). This activity is all an off-shoot from the Ukraine-Russian war. The multiple NATO and European leadership meetings will, unfortunately, not stop Russia’s behavior. Perhaps NATO will be more prepared for the coming incursions – the submarine operations similar to Cold War times should be a reminder of the threat. Russia will continue to pressure those countries (as illustrated with the rail-line sabotage) and continued UAV/Drone incursions in a desire to get them to stop supporting Ukraine and become complacent with Russia’s military activity.
CONTINUE TO WATCH
Pakistan-Afghanistan Continued Fighting
Event: The Afghanistan-Pakistan Border dispute was on its way out of “Alerts” in February. After fighting escalated in March with Pakistani airstrike on Kabul and heavy fighting along their long common border, the two sides agreed to hold peace talks. Those are fragile at best. During the last week in April, Pakistan hit Afghan border villages with artillery and mortar fire. There is still no resolution. See the past few CASIL NOTES for background.
Summary: Peace talks do not mean peace.This still requires watching as the fighting could escalate after the late-April border attacks.
Cuba
Event: To ease Cuba’s energy crisis, the U.S. allowed one Russian oil tanker to deliver fuel-oil to the island. There have also been low-level talks between U.S. and Cuban officials. Cuba continues to face one of its largest and most damaging economic and energy crises since the Communist takeover in 1959. The economic collapse has been happening in Cuba for decades, but it has been propped up by other authoritarian regimes (Russia, China, Venezuela, etc…) and “just getting by”. Having to stand on its own, allows the true fallacies of Communist rule to show through.
Summary: While there have been low-level talks, the Communist regime in Cuba is not ready to throw in the towel just yet. There will have to be more suffering for the Cuban people or some form of popular pressure (always hard in an authoritarian country) to cause change. For the first time since 1959, the Cuban people have an opportunity to change their government from an authoritarian and Communist controlled one, to one based on democracy and true openness. The U.S. will continue to apply pressure to help promote that internal change as it is important (Number one National Security Strategy Objective is the Western Hemisphere) to have economically prosperous and cooperative countries in our hemisphere while simultaneously reducing adversary encroachment.
North Korea. The DPRK conducted several missile launches in April. This follows March’s major ICBM engine test. (NOTE: North Korea possesses 50-60 nuclear weapons [public record numbers]). The IC noted there are strong indications DPRK has increased production in its nuclear weapons program in recent weeks. This is an annual event, but hastened by events between the U.S. and Iran. The DPRK has ramped up its missile tests and messaging during the past two months trying to signal its displeasure with S. Korea and U.S. exercises and continued military cooperation. Just as an aside: The DPRK is an Iranian ally and is known to have shared missile technology and the question remains as to how much nuclear weapons technology has been shared over the decades of partnership.
MOVED OUT
U.S. - Venezuela:
Event: We must continue to follow this region as U.S. strikes against narco-traffickers continue – and will. We also need to monitor the evolving relationship with the new leaders, and if they will transition to a truly democratic government.
Summary: We are more publicly working to open a more cordial relationship and perhaps create an economic opening for U.S. oil companies and other markets. As a major side benefit, the U.S. is now able to block further encroachment in our sphere of influence by bad actors from Cuba, China, Russia and Iran ( a stated objective in the new National Security Strategy).
Syria:
We’re going to move Syria out. It does not mean the problems we highlighted have been solved. We will monitor and move it back in if there are new developments.
- Event: At the risk of being a broken record, Syria is not yet a stable government or country even 14 months after the overthrow of the Assad regime. Challenges remain and struggle will continue.
- Summary: As we have reported, Syria is a long way from a cohesive and peaceful transition and government/nation. It is also not cohesive. January and February fighting illustrate just one aspect of how Syria is not a stable or secure country. We need a secure Syria and stable government. That will take time.
SPECIAL NOTICE(S):
- CASIL would like to extend GOOD LUCK and GOD’S SPEED to all our forces fighting against Iran and protecting our freedoms around the globe. Your superior training and dedication are your own self-generated luck. That is your advantage. “Charlie Mike” and Semper Fidelis!
- U.S. budget issues. We are under a limited government shutdown (now the longest in U.S. history) that negatively affects DHS (TSA, Border Patrol, etc…) As we go to print, no agreement. If no budget agreement is reached, this could have negative effect on national security we have mentioned since October’s newletter. MORE IMPORTANTLY, with potential terrorists’ threat from Iran, now is NOT A GOOD TIME TO CUT FUNDING
EVENTS:
- UPCOMING EVENTS
PODCAST LAUNCH – STRATEGIC AFFAIRS WITH MARK CHANDLER
—- First three Episodes Drop 1 MAY —-
March was an extremely busy news month. I had several news interviews during April as events continue to evolve. We even added a new outlet, conducting several interviews with the News Nation anchors.
o 2 Apr With LiveNow from Fox on Iran.
o 3 Apr With News Nation on the Increase in Dept of War Budget Request.
o 6 Apr With Austin Denean of Sinclair Broadcast Service, The National Desk on the Iranian crisis status and trajectory.
o 8 Apr With LiveNow from Fox on Iran.
o 10 Apr With News Nation on the Iran Crisis and Nuclear Weapons Issues.
o 11 Apr With LiveNow from Fox on Iran.
o 15 Apr With LiveNow from Fox on Iran. Took LIVE Questions from AUDIENCE
o 18 Apr With News Nation on the Iran War.
o 24 Apr With Austin Denean of Sinclair Broadcast Service, The National Desk on the Iranian crisis regarding Strait of Hormuz and Blockade.
o 24 Apr With News Nation on the Iran War.
o 25 Apr With LiveNow from Fox on Iran.
- PUBLIC ENGAGEMENTS
o 24 Apr – Guest Speaker at CCU Veterans Graduation and Honor Roll Student induction ceremony. GREAT TIME with these young veterans (and great Americans) who unselfishly served their country and now are working to better themselves and society – THANK YOU.
o 8 Apr – Hade a great public talk on the Iran Crisis and National Security to Local Myrtle Beach Group who was very engaged and inquisitive. Thank you.
o 13 Apr – Another wonderful engagement with the Florence Rotary Club. Always inquisitive and receptive. Great hosts.
Mark S. Chandler
SPECIAL NOTICE –
BOOK. “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”.
- It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War. This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.
- It is available in e-book and paperback from Amazon.
Thank you to those who have purchased it, and your positive feedback is greatly appreciated.