CASIL NOTES - November Newsletter
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CASIL NOTES
- COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –
ISSUE 8: NOVEMBER 2025
CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large. The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the “Event” with a “Summary” as to possible implications.
MONTHLY SUMMARY: As November begins, we are again reminded to remain strategically focused. Many of the event/issues we highlighted at the beginning of October took place or continued. We are no closer to resolving the Ukraine-Russia War than we were at the beginning of months ago. We might see a silver lining in the Israel-Hamas War, but is that silver lining on the edges of storm clouds? We are seeing NATO continue prudent defensive military moves as concern over Russian aggression in Europe remains. While we do not generally mention domestic U.S. politics, we want to point out the U.S. government shutdown continues. Only essential personnel are exempted (without immediate pay, by the way). This means for national security the military is at full strength, but the intelligence services are operating at a reduced manpower capacity.
This month’s Newsletter is another rather long summary of global events. Let’s get started
NATO Defensive Moves
Event: This was a new entry in October and continues to deserve its own section this month. Two months ago we alerted you to the increased activity in the Baltic Sea and Baltic states. That activity increased last month, continues. As an off-shoot from the Ukraine-Russian war, the second half of September and October saw NATO forced to implement multiple defensive moves to be prepared for further Russian aggression. We commented that we haven’t seen this much air and naval activity in E. Europe and the Baltics since the old Soviet Union days – a playbook Putin knows well. The steadily increasing Russian military pressure against NATO’s Eastern flank persisted, and the end of October witnessed several defensive NATO actions against Russian pressure. The activity will continue as Russia looks to apply more military pressure.
Summary: The multiple NATO and European leadership meetings will, unfortunately, not stop Russia’s behavior. Perhaps NATO will be more prepared for the coming incursions, but Russia will continue to pressure those countries in the desire to get them to stop supporting Ukraine and become complacent with Russia’s military activity.
- NOTE: During late October, Russia conducted a National Nuclear C2 (Command and Control) exercise. While not alarming in itself (this is an annual or semi-annual event), the public messaging Russia put forth after the exercise was meant to send a strategic message of strength and deterrence. Russia also announced it tested two advanced weapons capabilities – a nuclear powered nuclear cruise missile and a nuclear powered nuclear underwater drone/torpedo. The importance of these weapons systems is, by being nuclear powered, they can fly/swim for an almost-unlimited time thus making them a strategic threat that is difficult to locate, track and defend. We will add that these have been in development for years, and there is NO INDEPENDENT verification of Russia’s claims for success. This bears watching.
Ukraine – Russia – United States
Event: As we keep addressing, Russia would continue its relentless attacks on Ukraine – it has. Russia is NOT slowing down and this is an international message of defiance to the U.S., NATO and EU. We urge you to read the past several months’ CASIL Notes to get full awareness of the situation. During October, Ukrainian President Zelensky visited Washington is advance of what all hoped would be another U.S.-Russia summit to end this war. There was talk of a President Trump – Putin meeting. Within a week of that Washington meeting, the U.S. called off any talks with Russia – Russia (or rather Putin) showed its true self in continuing those relentless attacks on Ukraine (and the threats against NATO). The result: no peace in Ukraine and no follow-up diplomatic initiative as Russian aggression continues. The U.S. instituted new sanctions on key Russian energy corporations. This will begin to interrupt Russia’s energy fiscal enterprise, but sanctions alone will not change (truly change) Russia’s (or Putin’s) behavior.
As a reference, Russia controls about 1/5 of Ukraine (in the E-SE region). It has only gained about 1% of land since its initial invasion in 2022. Any ground gains are incremental at best. Russia will continue a strong push throughout the Fall and early Winter. At this writing, Russia is making a major push over a small region centered on a city called Pokrovsk - a key eastern front-line town. While the place is unknown to the casual observer, it holds significant operational value as it is a key transport and supply hub whose capture could unlock Russian efforts to seize the rest of the region (if Russia exploits this advantage). This level of fighting will continue as Russia desires to gain the military advantage before proceeding with any type of ceasefire negotiations.
Summary: There was renewed public support for Ukraine by the U.S. Administration. As a reminder, Putin is a master manipulator. He will tell you what you want to hear, while all the time working any deal to his/Russia’s advantage. History proves he cannot be trusted. (Refer to June’s Newsletter for more.). The aftermath of the Alaska summit and the failure to meet in October, reinforces this history.
To stop the fighting, Russia must be made to feel pain – economically – and must face a threat – security related – before it will seriously consider sitting down at the peace table for any sincere talks.
I will also reiterate this statement: A peace deal without security guarantees for Ukraine will only embolden Putin. The outcome will likely be future Russian attacks but not limited to Ukraine. Those are key concerns for the European countries especially those in Eastern and Northern Europe - closest to Russian aggression. History, while not a blueprint for the future, is a good forecaster of Russia’s future aggressive behavior.
Trump-Xi Summit in ROK
Event: President Trump and President Xi held a bi-lateral summit in South Korea during late October. There were several trade/tariff deals, fentanyl restrictions and rare-earth mineral deals (although nothing is finalized by signature at this writing). The United States’ hand was strengthened prior to the summit with several trade and alliance deals with critical allies Japan and South Korea. This showed solidarity in the region that can stand against the Chinese – diplomatically and economically.
- By the way, no mention of the long-awaited Tik Tok deal. Reminder that Tik Tok is ultimately a Chinese-controlled social media platform. The long-held U.S. Government assessment is that all your personal data can be held ultimately by the Chinese Communist Party. (Note: This is a factual and true assessment that all your personal data IS AVAILABLE to the CCP.)
Summary: Any of the deals, however, will only be for one year and then must be re-negotiated. This gives each side time to strengthen their respective positions. Can the U.S. reduce its reliance on China’s strong-hold of rare-earth minerals? Will China actually stop export of fentanyl and fentanyl precursors. This was a great accomplishment, but we need to keep our eye on the strategic picture and not the short-term gain.
PRC (China)
Event: We are keeping China here due to its relative overall threat to U.S. national security and we do not feel that it is time to move it to the CASIL ALERTS section. China made a lot of news in September, and it would be short-sighted to believe it is going to quietly take a backstage – especially after the major summit with the U.S. and the trade space it obtained.
It is important to note that President Xi conducted a series of significant leadership purges in October (some began in previous months). At least 60 members of the Communist Party’s “Central Committee” (a level below the ruling Politburo) have been removed. Several key military leaders have also been purged in recent weeks/months. The catch-all charge for dismissing all these people is the standard Chinese “corruption” charge. In truth, this is how Xi ensures loyalty to his programs and leadership. China has not witnessed this much power consolidation since Mao Zedong’s leadership period (1949-1976).
Summary: China is an excellent player of the “long-game” and the diplomatic show in early September was planned for maximum impact and messaging. The new trade deals with the U.S. bolster China’s standing and buy it time. The one-year agreements are just a blip on the Chinese time-line. We must maintain a strategic approach to the Chinese threat. We are seeing increased Chinese messaging both against U.S. (with trade talks in the background) and our allies in the region. We expect this trend to continue in the coming months.
Israel- Hamas War
Event: A new cease-fire went into effect in early October. Phase one saw all living Israeli hostages released and 28 bodies were supposed to be returned for the Israeli limited withdrawal and full opening of humanitarian relief supplies. Hamas has stalled on returning the bodies. As of this CASIL NOTES publication, 11 bodies remain. There have also been two “flare-ups” of fighting following Hamas’s deception on returning bodies, and also Hamas attacks on IDF positions. (NOTE: It’s a cease-fire which does not mean there will not be breakdowns. Success in the long term is negotiating Phase two.)
Summary: Phase two and beyond are in negotiations. These are not going as smoothly as all anticipated/hoped with the initial success of Phase one. Two key elements are: 1) a transition to Palestinian rule for Gaza and the West Bank, and 2) Hamas fighters must lay down its arms and not be part of any future Gaza Strip government. This is the most extensive and best chance at a deal since Hamas started this war two years ago. Several incidents of Hamas publicly executing Palestinians and fighting against local Palestinian groups area strong indicators Hamas is not ready to relinquish control. Again, the chance for peace lies in Hamas’s hands. Will they accept it?
Venezuela:
Event: In Mid-August, the U.S. positioned several ships in the S. Caribbean as messaging to Venezuela - in part to support the mission Coast Guard and DEA narcotics interdiction. The U.S. announced it is moving a U.S. aircraft carrier ( USS Gerald R. Ford ) to the area. The pressure on President Maduro is mounting (NOTE: He has not been recognized as the legitimate ruler of Venezuela by two successive U.S. Administrations). The U.S. has now conducted over a dozen strikes on drug cartel boats leaving Venezuela during the past two months. This will likely continue as the cartels will look to test the U.S. resolve. At the end of Oct, President Maduro called on support from allies such as Russia and China.
Summary: The U.S. is strongly messaging for Maduro to step down and allow the legitimately elected leadership to take power. The U.S. is also legitimately going after drug cartels that it designated terrorist organizations months ago. This bears close watching as it does not appear the U.S. will take military action against Venezuela proper, but wars have accidently flared up for lesser reasons. Just for your awareness, Venezuelan allies include Cuba, China, Russia and Iran.
Sudan Civil War
Event: This should have been in CASIL Alerts in previous editions. In late October, a rebel militia called the RSF finally captured (after 18 months) a key government stronghold (El Fasher) in the Darfur region. The reason we chose now to publish this issue is the strength (and outside support) the RSF has generated in recent weeks and months. After taking control of El Fasher, multiple reports (still working to confirm) began surfacing of the RSF conducting mass civilian killing/massacre. Over 150,000 Sudanese have been killed in this recent version of war in Sudan. The history behind this war is long, but essentially you have two generals who had a loose coalition to run the country turn on one another.
Summary: This fighting leads to further destabilizing the country (one of the largest in Africa) as controlling the Darfur region could lead to a failed state. Sudan has a strategic port location on the Red Sea and access to key minerals and energy resources.
Iran Nuclear Talks – Where are We?
Event: Everyone is waiting to see what Iran will do regarding its nuclear weapons program. (See the past four CASIL Notes for details and background).
Summary: What is next? There has been no progress in denuclearization talks. The “snap-back” sanctions recommended by the “E3” against Iran went into effect. The result - -Iran became more belligerent. Iran has key allies (Russia and China) who will likely circumvent the snap-back sanctions.
NEGOTIATIONS – There still needs to be negotiations. While it has been severely weakened, it has not stopped its belligerence and its ambitions to destabilize the region. The April Special Edition Newsletter contains key details on Iran’s nuclear weapons program and sets up “What A “Good Deal Looks Like”. A holistic and complete deal requires those elements to be met. To confirm those elements, Iran must allow inspectors on the ground at all facilities for verification. Time will tell, and the clock is ticking.
NOTE: Iranian Retaliation Still Possible: Refer to the last two CASIL Notes for details.
IF YOU SEE SOMETHING, SAY SOMETHING.
CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)
NEW IN
- ISIS IS BACK. Actually, ISIS never left. It has maintained nominal control over certain small villages and areas in Syria since its major battlefield defeat years ago, but it has never truly been eliminated. As we mentioned several times regarding Syrian government instability, ISIS could exploit the security gaps (more so as the U.S. draws downs our forces in Syria). That “exploiting” turned into more attacks in Syria (some targeted against our close ally (Syrian Kurds from the SDF). Left alone, ISIS can easily further exploit the security gaps and metastasize like the cancer it is.
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- ISIS In the United States. We do not usually address U.S. domestic issues, but this is a security concern highly worthy of a CASIL Alert. On the last day of October, the FBI arrested several suspects in Michigan for plotting a terrorist attack on/around Halloween (31 Oct). This is significant because 1) the FBI was able to interdict and stop what could have been a devastating attack on innocent civilians and 2) it shows terror cells DO EXIST INSIDE THE U.S. about which we are unaware.
o IF YOU SEE SOMETHING; SAY SOMETHING
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- Afghanistan-Pakistan Border dispute. This flared up in fighting between the two countries after Afghan-based terrorists (TTP) attacked inside Pakistan. Pakistan accused Afghanistan of support to TTP (which is tacitly does, by the way; a claim Afghanistan’s Taliban leadership denies). Fighting flared quickly but then settled just as quickly as the two countries agreed to talks. Those talked failed to result in any agreement at the end of October and both sides walked out on them.
CONTINUE TO WATCH
- Syria: Internal Syrian instability and fighting in the South and East.
o This continues as an unresolved issue. Sectarian fighting continues and will do so.
o Tensions remain over August/September’s fighting involving the Druze. (See August Newsletter for details and background.)
§ This type of sectarian violence will continue. Israel will continue to strike first when its security interests are threatened.
o As we have reported, Syria is a long way from a cohesive and peaceful transition and turning into a viable government/nation.
- Israel-Turkey Tension – A must watch
o We are keeping this on the radar. At the very end of August Turkey (I’m not using the new spelling) ENDED all trade with Israel and CLOSED its AIRSPACE to Israeli civil air traffic. While these are not military moves, they do show vastly increased tension that has been building throughout the Israel-Hamas War (Turkey supports Hamas.)
o There is tension over Turkey’s support for the new Syrian regime and pushback on Israel’s defensive-offensive operations inside Syria
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- North Korea. We are keeping DPRK to CASIL Alerts this month. The DPRK has been trying to fly under the radar in recent months but came out with military messaging of potential significance in October. KJU did conduct a missile test in advance of the President Trump visit to South Korea. The DPRK claimed it was a hypersonic missile. This would be a major technological achievement for DPRK. This is something the U.S. IC will be working to verify. Prior to that test, the DPRK held its annual military parade and unveiled its newest ICBM. This new ICBM is alleged to be bigger, longer range AND have a MIRV (multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles [nuclear warheads]) capability. That would increase its threat capability against U.S. missile defense systems and be another major technological leap.
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- Israel – Egypt:
o Israel formally raised a concern in September to the U.S. about Egyptian military buildup in the Sinai. Egypt says it is not doing anything beyond security along the Gaza Strip to prevent Palestinians from entering Egypt.
o This bears watching, and the fact that Israel is keeping this in the public discussion illustrates Israel is concerned. It’s not likely Egypt will take offensive action against Israel at this time, but that’s the same thought process back in 1967 and 1973…….caution.
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- KSA – Pakistan Military Cooperation
o In a surprising move, KSA and Pakistan signed a military cooperation agreement in September. This is significant in that it brings the two countries more closely aligned.
o It will be a good relationship to counter Iran. It could present challenges to how the U.S. approaches dealing with Pakistan.
o This bears watching to see if this develops to any joint military training or exchanges.
o Do not forget Pakistan is a nuclear weapons nation.
- Houthis – Moved Here: We are not ready to completely remove the Houthis from our Alert list due to their ability to periodically impede shipping in the Red Sea or send a missile or drone on Israel. They have been relatively quiet in the past several weeks, but that is what give us Intelligence professionals pause for what we may not be seeing.
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- United States’ Tariffs. These stay in our ALERTS section because 1) a MAJOR NEW tariff was levied on India because of its trade with Russia. This is already impacting U.S.-China trade and relations, and it is only a few days old by the start of September. Also, 2) they are still impacting elements of trade between several of our allies, 3) a rush of deals were made at the end of July, and 3) not all tariff deals have been finalized.
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- Palestinian State Recognition (“New In” last month.) We cannot move this completely off the CASIL Alerts as this issue could play in the backdrop of the Israeli-Hamas peace talks. Refer to October CASIL Notes for details.
MOVED OUT
- U.S. Comment on Returning to Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan. No additional public moves have been made since this first surfaced at the end of September.
- U.S. – Turkey Visit – What is the Outcome.
o Turkish President Erdogan visited Washington on 25 Sep. He was there to discuss relations between the U.S. and Turkey, the Israel-Hamas war, the Ukraine-Russian War, and military trade. No real benefit seems to have materialized from that late-September visit.
o See October’s CASIL Notes for details.
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SPECIAL NOTICE(S):
- United States Marine Corps Birthday. On 10 November, the Marine Corps – in which I proudly served for over 21 years – will celebrate our 250th Birthday. I’m looking forward to 250 more. Semper Fidelis, Marines!
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- We will also honor our United States Veterans on 11 November – Veterans Day. So many have served. Many gave the ultimate sacrifice for the freedoms Americans have every day and that so many Americans exercise. Take a moment to remember a Vet and thank a Vet. Thank you for your service then, now and tomorrow.
EVENTS:
- I had three great engagements in October.
o I was able to speak with a group of interested citizens via their relationship to the CCU OLLI program. This excellent group of citizens was fully engaged during my Global Threat Awareness Talk and gave me a great set of challenging questions. That makes the next time all that much better. Thank you
o The CCU Center for Applied Intelligence hosted a night at CCU for me to discuss my book – “The Israel-Hamas War; Making The Complex, Comprehensible”. Another great engagement of students and community members where I was able to discuss the why for the book, my challenges as an author, and some insights for intelligence processes. I was asked all the standard questions but given the ultimate challenges for what the regional outlook would be. I appreciate CAI’s opportunity presented me. Thank you.
o I presented another Global Threat Awareness Talk at another community gather in late Oct. Again, these are great events where I get a different perspective of our citizens’ concerns. One concerning comment: This is amazing information. Why aren’t we better informed about what is happening in the world that affects our lives? As I say, what happens “over there” DOES AFFECT us “over here”.
Mark S. Chandler
SPECIAL NOTICE –
NEW BOOK. I have published a book: “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”
- It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War. This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.
- I walk the reader through the interviews, but with the perspective of my 37 years as an intelligence professional.
- It is available in e-book and paperback from Amazon.
Thank you to those who have purchased it, and your positive feedback is greatly appreciated.