CASIL NOTES - October Newsletter
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CASIL NOTES
- COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –
ISSUE 19: OCTOBER
CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large. The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the “Event” with a “Summary” as to possible implications.
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MONTHLY SUMMARY:
The U.S. – Iran “fight” continues. We open October with NEW sanctions being levied on Iran. They are part of Operation Economic Outcast. The latest sanctions in September included adding Iranian banks and banks that support the Iranian financial system, and sanctions on air travel and any country continuing to support Iranian commercial aircraft. As the month opens, NEW talks about renewing negotiations. Will they happen? Will Iran be sincere? How long will this conflict continue? All answers remain unknown. As there are still many events happening around the world, we will cover those (albeit BRIEFLY). As always, these events argue for a continued “strategic approach/awareness”. The U.S. and China held a summit in DC. What agreements were made? Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure continued, but Russia continued increased Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure. A terrorist or sabotage attack on Britain’s RAF Fairford airbase was thwarted in the final stages. Who was behind the attempt? The U.S. completed a full military withdrawal from Iraq after 23 years. Did we leave behind stability or a potential threat?
U.S. and Israel War on Iran
Event: We open October with talk of possible new negotiations. In our assessment, Iran only wants to negotiate to remove the U.S. economic pressure. Iran has set “conditions” to open the SoH, but those conditions only benefit Iran. If we enter negotiations, it should be from a position of strength and with leverage against Iran. We are gaining more of both. But and this is critical to understand, Iran does not feel it is less strong or defeated at this point.
The new “focus of main effort” in the U.S. campaign against Iran is centered around “Operation Economic Outcast.” The U.S. has “taken the gloves off” in the Economic element of National Power. While there were attacks, compared to the past several months, there was very little military action during September. The U.S. Blockade of Iranian ports continues. The Sanctions provide added pressure on the Islamic Regime. And the U.S. military remains locked and loaded – ready to return to full combat.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). This has created a significant pressure-point on the region and the U.S. in negotiations – and in combat operations. The continual Iranian attacks on are a prime example of how Iran is trying to maintain control through threats. That must stop. If not stopped, Iran will, de-facto, control the SoH. Oil IS getting through, but not at pre-war levels, but it is moving. However, the SoH is not as free flowing with shipping traffic. Returning it to normal shipping patterns with no Iranian threat should be a key objective.
With the repeated calls by Iran for talks, it appears the economic pressure is beginning to work. However, BE PATIENT. It TAKES TIME. Sanctions are complex and no one has truly ever sanctioned everything. So many levels and so many people and businesses and countries. We cannot find a single case where sanctions have EVER WORKED in the history of these types of campaigns to get the results a country wants nor to change the behavior of the sanctioned regime. That is especially true with totalitarian (autocratic) regimes, and you can easily characterize the Islamic Regime in Iran as totalitarian. Look at how many times Russia has been sanctioned for invading Ukraine, yet, that has not changed its behavior in over 4 years (or 12 if you go back to when Russia invaded Crimea).
MUST MENTION SAUDI ARABIS and HOUTHI BATTLES
Event: Fighting between the two escalated in late August throughout September. Houthis made a major advances on the Red Sea coast areas and this helped consolidate their control over this key shipping route. We have several explanations in last month’s interviews.
-They seized Perim Island (located in the mouth of the Red Sea in the Bab al-Mandab (BaM) Strait. They captured the key port city of Mokha from pro-government forces. With that, the Houthis can now control the entire coastline. After the above gains, the Houthis captured more strategic islands in the southern Red Sea. They captured Greater and Lesser Hanish. If the Houthis wanted, they could shut down the BaM.
- Additionally, the Houthis (along with other Iranian Proxies) attacked several cities, bases and ports in Saudi Arabia – including the critical East-West Pipeline transporting oil to the Red Sea and avoiding the SoH.
Saudi Arabia has asked for military support. The U.S. is providing planning and intelligence support but not going any further. France and Britain pledged military defensive support.
Summary: The Houthi gains help Iran and its campaign against the U.S. and Gulf States. They threaten regional stability and global commercial shipping. Their advances must be turned back.
We conducted at least 7 live interviews in September on the dynamic situation. A combination of those interviews covers the details and evolving issues very well. It is best if you review those interviews instead of us trying to write out all the complex details and nuances. Please refer to the CASIL Website (and Mark Chandler on LinkedIn), and previous CASIL Notes
Worth REPEATING from previous CASIL Notes. We mentioned the need to think at the Strategic, Operational and Tactical Levels of War and Diplomacy. That is still critical – refer to that issue for details.
- We can win the war, but LOSE THE PEACE
NOW ON TO THE REGULAR NEWSLETTER
Ukraine – Russia
Event: INCREASED levels of attacks by both Ukraine and Russia continue. Ukraine continues to exploit its success (begun in May) with drone attacks deeper into Russia. Those attacks are having success in negatively impacting Russia’s energy infrastructure and its economic interests. In retaliation, Russia expanded and increased its attacks on more civilian targets. Russia will continue these increased attacks on Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure. Ukraine is struggling to maintain a strong air defense capability in the face of dwindling assets, and Russia recently began using jet-powered drones (with support from China and Iran). This complicates Ukrainian air defense operations.
Putin is feeling the pressure, so he is applying more drastic measures against Ukraine.
Summary: Putin remains a master manipulator. But he is feeling pressure – both internal and external. He is not ready to stop, and he will continue to message a different reality of the war. To stop the fighting, Russia must be made to feel pain – economically – and must face a threat – security related – before it will seriously consider sitting down at the peace table for any sincere talks.
Russia is facing more pressure than at any point in the 4+ year war. We again urge you to read the past several months’ CASIL Notes to get full awareness.
Actions in NATO and Europe.
Event: This stays the main body due to several issues from July - September, but also to illustrate a strategic concern we have. We continue to watch European actions due to Ukraine-Russian War. NATO “Air Policing” patrols again shot down Russian drones violating NATO nations’ airspace. This continues to underscore the dangers to neighboring countries in the Russia-Ukraine war (Romania, Hungary, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, etc…). Russia has no regard for airspace violations or safety of innocent civilians when it launches missiles and UAV/Drones. Russian sabotage efforts against NATO countries continues to be confirmed. Russia is testing individual countries and NATO resolve. How far can it push the envelope?
Summary: Russia will continue its reckless attacks against Ukraine and won’t care who is killed or injured. It will also continue its “gray zone” warfare against European and NATO countries as it has for the past years. (Read previous CASIL Notes for background). Multiple NATO and European leadership meetings have, unfortunately, not stopped Russia’s behavior. Russia will continue to pressure those countries and continued sabotage and UAV/Drone incursions in a desire to get them to stop supporting Ukraine and become complacent with Russia’s military activity.
PRC (China)
Event: China remains as a major strategic threat to the U.S. national security. The September U.S.-China Summit came and went. We asked these questions: “What will be discussed? What will be signed? Who walks away a winner?” in September’s CASIL Notes. We’re still waiting on the answer.
- The trade war that saw both countries impose and then pause the tariff war and prevent a further escalation, was extended by only a few months – November to January. China wants at least a year as Xi looks to wait out Trump's presidency.
- Iran. China has HELPED Iran in its fighting against the U.S. China has provided intelligence to support better targeting of U.S. bases and ships, munitions parts and technology. China is NOT supporting U.S. sanctions. This summit did not change either of those Chinese positions/actions.
- China’s growing nuclear arsenal. These discussions have been happening long before the summit. The U.S. is pushing for better communications to avoid any unnecessary escalation. China is dragging its feet. There is no nuclear agreement between the two.
- Disputes on tariffs, China's dominance in rare earth supplies and access to advanced US chips are being kicked forward to yet another round of negotiations – maybe November.
o This could be seen as “hardball” by the U.S. and we’re messaging to China they are not fulfilling their end of the May deals – which they won’t completely.
- There has been uneven progress on commitments involving rare-earth minerals, agricultural and commercial purchases, trade and investment,
- Issues remaining include: disputes over tariffs, advanced technology, artificial intelligence, intellectual property and Taiwan.
Meanwhile China is being China and increasing pressure across the Western Pacific region against anyone aligned with the U.S. or Taiwan. This will not stop! See past CASIL Notes for many of the incidents.
Summary: We have a strong series of months of continued PRC pressure against U.S. allies in the region – leading up to the September Summit. China will continue this pressure. One reason is to message the region and the U.S. that China can do as it pleases in its “sphere of influence” and the other reason is to anesthetize the region to its behavior until it becomes “normal” – until it is the actual forced takeover of the SCS, Taiwan, etc…. Remember, Xi has stated he wants Taiwan back under PRC control in 2027.
China is an excellent player of the “long-game”. But perhaps Xi is becoming impatient. Current assessments indicate China will attempt to take Taiwan by 2027. China could begin now as it has been rehearsing this military move for years and increasing the tempo of those rehearsals. The recent pressure against its neighbors is China’s way of positioning itself to control the region should any conflict happen.
NOTE: Keep an eye on Xi health reporting. There are reports China is covering up some potentially troubling health issue for Xi. He reportedly had an “episode” in India just recently and that is something to watch.
Spoiled Attack Attempt on RAF Fairford
Event: On 27 September, five men were caught trying to infiltrate British airbase, RAF Fairford, in England. This is the base in England from where the U.S. stages its bomber flights (B-1 and B-52) for attacks against Iran. We have operated from there at various times since 1990/91 and Desert Storm. At the time of publication, the details were still emerging. Such a bold attempt if disconcerting. But at least it was stopped. I interviewed twice in two days on this subject. Biggest question; Who Was Behind It?
Summary: Details are becoming more confusing as we go to press. More will be revealed in October, but in looking at potential culprits who have motivation to conduct an attack, we assess TWO strong candidates – Iran and Russia. Here’s why:
Iran.
- In July the IRGC directly threatened the UK should support U.S. bombers.
- This type of operation would have been planned by a combination of the IRGC-QF and MOIS (Iranian Intelligence). They have also been responsible for several sabotage events and assassinations all across Europe over the decades. The IRGC (and QF) are who Iran uses to plan and conduct these types of operations.
- As a reminder, the QF has operatives in more than just the Middle East and Europe. They also operate in South America, Asia and likely have elements in the U.S.
Russia.
- In August, Russia issued veiled threats to Britain for its increased support to Ukraine.
- This isn’t an empty threat as Russian intelligence has been linked to some arson attacks and attempted bombings in side England since the Ukraine war began.
- The Brits have been increasingly concerned in recent months about Russia possibly extending its sabotage operations and cyberattacks.
- Russia has been conducting what has been called “hybrid warfare” and “gray zone” warfare across Europe.
- As our CASIL Notes have illustrated, in response to Europe’s support for Ukraine, there have been several incidents linked to Russia in Poland, Germany, France, and several of the Baltic States. These incidents are increasing.
Israel- Hamas War
Event: We are approaching THREE YEARS SINCE THE HAMAS ATTACKS (7 October). Since the news on 30/31 July about Hamas’ agreeing to disarm, there has been no positive movement. Hamas disarming has been a key stumbling block since the cease-fire was announced last year. As we keep saying, it is a COMPLEX situation. We are a far from Hamas turning over its weapons and completely disarming. Quite the opposite – Hamas continued attempting to attack IDF forces beyond the “Yellow Line” and IDF conducted strikes on those Hamas positions. We said “expect more” and both sides did so. We leave this with, expect more.
Summary: Our assessment last month was that we were skeptical for peace – we remain so. There will likely be “flare-ups” in fighting as several Hamas fighters will be reluctant to disarm (that is how they attack Israel and control the Gaza Strip’s residents). Israel will continue to be proactive in its defense to the Hamas attacks. Hamas is not ready to relinquish control and therefore will look to some way to keep that control.
For a comprehensive understanding of this war, please reference my book, “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”.
Ethiopia
Event: The Ethiopian civil war erupted again in September as rebel forces attacked several government positions and seized several airports. This effectively ended the fragile four-year old truce. The rebels are primarily from the Tigray region (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) and have fought for independence for about a decade. Over 600,000 people were killed during the initial fighting.
Summary: This obviously creates an even more chaotic region. However, it COULD GET WORSE. If Eritrea (which fought a war of independence against Ethiopia for 30 years) enters the fight on the side of the Tigray rebels, then the situation will spiral out of control. The region does not need more instability on the Red Sea coast.
Syria
Event: We are keeping this in the main body from ALERTS. Following the many events from August (See previous CASIL Notes), there has been no major change to the situation on the ground. We have not seen progress nor have we seen setbacks.
Summary: See previous editions for background and previous summaries. We will continue to point out that Syria is still NOT a cohesive nation-state and the central Syrian government still has not established it authority over all the country nor has it established a true rule of law. The U.S. move and Kurdish actions mentioned above will go a long way in changing that dynamic. We are not sure how the final U.S. withdrawal from Iraq will affect the Syrian situation, but the two unstable areas cannot be looked at in induvial vacuums.
CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)
NEW IN
Iraq.
Event: SPECIAL NOTICE: The U.S. announced on 29 Sept all U.S. forces have been withdrawn from Iraq. That’s 23 years after we invaded Iraq. I was there at the beginning in 2003 when we rapidly defeated the Iraqi military and captured Baghdad. We accomplished a great military victory more quickly than we even thought. After that rapid victory, we found ourselves thrown into a fight that has lasted the remaining 23 years against al-Qaeda aligned militia, Iranian QF operators and trained Shia militia, and ultimately ISIS. A special thanks and remembrance to all our military who fought, died or were wounded there.
Summary: The U.S. will maintain intelligence support to Iraq. We have departed Iraq, but AQ, ISIS, Shia militia and Iran all remain. I seriously doubt Iraq is stable and secure. Iran has infiltrated the government and the military. But, our government has decided the Iraq situation no longer requires our direct engagement. That may be true, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t require our attention. Stability is not guaranteed.
North Korea.
Event: Keeping DPRK in “Alerts” because of recent months’ actions. There was a land-mine explosion in the DMZ ~27 Sep. The ROK blames DPRK for planting new mines. There will be diplomatic protest, but this is unlikely to lead to escalation. KJU has been pressing the rhetoric and new military announcements recently. They announced they will increase their nuclear weapons inventory (they possess ~60 nuclear weapons). They recently tested NEW “Swarm” drone and missile attack tactics. They are learning of successes in the tactics with the Ukraine-Russia war and Iranian attacks on the U.S. and Israel. The DPRK continued multiple missile launches as signals of defiance and threats to ROK, Japan and the U.S. Don’t forget the new DPRK partnership agreements with both Russia and China, the DPRK continues providing troops and more missiles to Russia in its war against Ukraine. In addition to soldiers, DPRK is also sending workers to Russia to support warehousing jobs. Right now, North Korea is benefitting nicely from this war.
Summary: Regardless of the U.S. limiting its military exercise participation, the DPRK will remain belligerent and a threat to ROK, Japan and regional stability. KJU will continue to flex his muscle through military demonstrations. He also likely feels more emboldened with the enhanced Russia and China partnerships and with what looks like U.S. weakening its partnership with the South. Expect no change or true engagement with the DPRK.
CONTINUE TO WATCH
Pakistan-Afghanistan Continued Fighting
Event: This one is staying in alerts. We saw an uptick in fighting in September. There was a major Taliban-backed terrorist attack inside Pakistan and Pakistan responded with several airstrikes along the border. There were also some ground fighting along the border. There is still no resolution. See the past few CASIL NOTES for background.
Summary: No progress in the peace talks. This still requires watching as the fighting could escalate. Based on multiple attacks in the last few days, we could see an escalation in August.
Cuba
Event: We moved Cuba from alerts to continue to watch. The situation could change quickly as Cuba’s internal crisis continues to worsen. Cuba suffered another major power outage across the whole island. See last several months’ CASIL Notes for more background.
Summary: While there have been talks, the Communist regime in Cuba is not ready to throw in the towel. There will have to be more suffering for the Cuban people or some form of popular pressure (always hard in an authoritarian country) to cause change. The U.S. will continue to apply pressure to help promote that internal change. Change could come soon – within weeks or months. The challenge is will that change be smooth or have implosive and explosive catastrophic results as the regime collapses.
News Notes This month: Quick hitting notes:
- 30 Sep - HI-JACKING ATTEMPT on Air Dubai airliner bound for Israel. Rapidly developing situation at publish time. Looks like attempt by a pilot to take over the airplane and crash it (in Israel?). Who: No details, but could be related to Iran, or could be related to Hamas. Remain alert.
- The U.S. signed a GREENLAND DEAL. While we had numerous bases on Greenland throughout the Cold War (up to 30), we reduced that number over the past two decades. Greenland is in a strategic location for America’s defenses. Russia and China both have been increasing activity in the Arctic. Now, we can put more troops and facilities back in Greenland to support our security. While this unnecessarily became a contentious issue over the past several months, it is good we now have a secure agreement for our National security, Greenland’s and N. Europe.
MOVED OUT
Venezuela
Event: We’re moving this out of alerts. We have the new economic/oil deal announced in August that is working through details. No significant negative changes in Venezuelan leadership toward the U.S. We feel, while not a completely stable environment, we can take it out of Alerts.
Summary: Remember, the two late-June earthquakes. Recovery is still underway. The government is not a free and democratic one, so chances for instability remain.
MALI
Event: We are moving this out. This one is challenging because the environment is very unsettled. The U.S. continues to consider strikes on Islamic Extremists (al-Queda and ISIS). But there has been No significant updates/status change in two months.
Summary: See the past several CASIL Notes for more information. This threat will continue to grow if those governments do not take lasting and coordinated efforts to stop the spread of radical Islamists in their countries. There will be more attacks.
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – EBOLA Outbreak
Event. We have been tracking since the outbreak was announced in May. The outbreak has only lessened to a small degree in four months. There have been over 2500 deaths and over 3,000 cases – with some outside DRC.
Summary. Most Ebola outbreaks are small, but the 2014-16 West Africa outbreak infected over 28,000 (over 11,000 died) – the largest ever outbreak of the disease. This is the second largest Ebola outbreak on the continent. We will add that it does not help international efforts that there continues to be an insurgent war in the area.
SPECIAL NOTICE(S):
- 7 October. It has been three years since the brutal Hamas terrorist surprise attack on Israel that killed over 1200 innocent Israeli citizens, captured 251 hostages and plunged the area into a war that lasts until today.
- A special thank you to all who have served and will serve to protect those freedoms and rights for every American citizen.
- CASIL would like to continue extending GOOD LUCK and GOD’S SPEED to all our forces fighting against Iran and protecting our freedoms around the globe. Your superior training and dedication are your own self-generated luck. That is your advantage. “Charlie Mike” and Semper Fidelis!
EVENTS:
- UPCOMING EVENTS
o 23 October. Remember the Marine Barracks bombing in Beirut. 1983. This was conducted with what is not Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran. There were 241 U.S. service members killed in that attack.
- September slowed the pace with media engagements. Here is a listing news interviews during the month.
o 1 September with News Nation on Iran.
o 7 September with LiveNow from Fox on Iran.
o 12 September with LiveNow from Fox on Iran.
o 16 September with Austin Denean of SBS – U.S. Weapons in Space.
o 25 September with “America at Night” on China + a little Iran.
o 27 September with LiveNow from Fox on RAF Fairford incident and Iran.
o 28 September with News Nation on Iran
- PUBLIC ENGAGEMENTS
o Participated in a CCU Panel “9/11 – 25 Years Later” on 3 Sep.
- We discussed events leading to the al-Qaeda attack and the security environment, post 9/11.
- Great audience. Great span of ages from our older community members to our university students who were not even alive during the attacks.
- I talked about Never Forget, but based on the audience’s ages, I said: First LEARN then NEVER FORGET.
o I was fortunate to participate in the CCU Communications Department’s panel on media engagement and experiences. I was able to relate key learning points based on my over 200 live interviews. Great student audience.
o I had a public speaking engagement in late September in Myrtle Beach. Another great audience interested in global event affecting the U.S. Great discussions!
o UPCOMING: I will present a talk to the South Carolina Correctional Association’s annual conference on Cyberspace Awareness and the Threat to Everyday Americans and our way of life.
Mark S. Chandler
BOOK. “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”.
- It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War. This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.
- It is available in e-book and paperback from Amazon.