CASIL NOTES - September Newsletter

Enjoy reading CASIL notes on the site or download the brief here.

CASIL NOTES

 - COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –

‍ ‍

ISSUE 18: SEPTEMBER 2026

CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large.  The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the “Event” with a “Summary” as to possible implications.

!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU FOR FOLLOWING US  !!!!!

NOW YOU CAN ALSO FOLLOW OUR PODCAST –

!!!!!!!!! STRATEGIC AFFAIRS WITH MARK CHANDLER !!!!!!!!

‍ ‍

MONTHLY SUMMARY: During this month, we will observe the 25th Year Anniversary of 9/11.  NEVER FORGET!

‍The U.S. – Iran “fight” continues. We open September with NEW sanctions on Iran.  It is called Operation Economic Outcast –  and began on what the U.S. called “Sanctions D-Day”.  The U.S. is trying one of the major elements of national power, to for Iran to negotiate and reach a deal.  If you recall, during July, the diplomatic MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) fell apart due to Iran’s continued attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. We continue to be asked: How long will it last? What will be the outcome? Both remain unknowns. The stakes for today and tomorrow remain high. There are key aspects of the war that must be addressed.  As there are still many events happening around the world, we will cover those (albeit BRIEFLY). As always, these events argue for a continued “strategic approach/awareness”.  We made NO progress in the Israel-Hamas War ceasefire agreement as Hamas did not follow-through on disarming.  As we anticipated, the successful Ukrainian attacks in the Ukraine-Russia War resulted in increased Russian missile and drone strikes. The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continues to grow.  China continues its aggressive behavior in the SCS, and North Korea is pushing back on the South and U.S.

‍ ‍U.S. and Israel War on Iran

‍ Event: We open September with a new “focus of main effort” in the U.S. campaign against Iran. On 24 August, the U.S. announced what it called “Operation Economic Outcast.”  The U.S. has  “taken the gloves off” in the Economic element of National Power.  While there were attacks, compared to the past several months, there was very little military action during August.  The U.S. Blockade of Iranian ports continues.  The Sanctions provide added pressure on the Islamic Regime.  And the U.S. military remains locked and loaded – ready to return to full combat.

‍ Opening the Strait of Hormuz (SoH).  This has created a significant pressure-point on the region and the U.S. in negotiations – and in combat operations. The continual Iranian attacks on are a prime example of how Iran is trying to maintain control through threats.  That must stop. If not stopped, Iran will, de-facto, control the SoH.

‍ A note on sanctions: BE PATIENT.  It TAKES TIME.  Sanctions are complex and no one has truly ever sanctioned everything.  So many levels and so many people and businesses and countries. We cannot find a single case where sanctions have EVER WORKED in the history of these types of campaigns to get the results a country wants nor to change the behavior of the sanctioned regime.  That is especially true with totalitarian (autocratic) regimes and you can easily characterize the Islamic Regime in Iran as totalitarian.  Look at how many times Russia has been sanctioned for invading Ukraine, yet, that has not changed its behavior in over 4 years (or 12 if you go back to when Russia invaded Crimea). 

‍ We conducted at least 12 live interviews in July on the evolving and dynamic situation. A combination of those interviews covers the details and evolving issues very well.  It is best if you review those interviews instead of us trying to write out all the complex details and nuances.  Please refer to the CASIL Website (and Mark Chandler on LinkedIn), and previous CASIL Notes for further details.

‍We want to point out that regardless of how the political and diplomatic elements of this campaign end, the military operations against Iran were some of the most successful in U.S. military history – accomplishing the military objectives that U.S. political leadership established. The advantage at the beginning of the ceasefire (April) was all to the U.S. and Israel. That shifted during the cease-fire(s), in our assessment, to Iran.  We could be at a NEW SHIFT in leverage and advantage if we wait out the economic pressure, but the U.S. (likely with Israel’s support) must conduct major combat operations if we are to truly force the Islamic Regime to change.

‍ ‍Worth REPEATING from previous CASIL Notes. We mentioned the need to think at the Strategic, Operational and Tactical Levels of War and Diplomacy.  That is still critical – refer to that issue for details.

‍ ‍-  We can win the war, but LOSE THE PEACE

NOW ON TO THE REGULAR NEWSLETTER

‍ ‍Ukraine – Russia

‍SPECIAL NOTE:  Director, CIA made an unannounced trip to Moscow in late July. While the details remain publicly unknown, it is likely the U.S. warned Putin to not continue its aggressive actions against NATO countries (Baltic states such as Latvia, Lithuania, Poland) – you might want to familiarize yourself with the “Suwalki Gap”.  The visit could also have been to tell Putin to not follow-through with a planned major assault on Ukraine.  Russian reaction bears watching.

‍Event: INCREASED levels of attacks by both Ukraine and Russia continue.  Ukraine continues to exploit its success (begun in May) with drone attacks deeper into Russia.  Those attacks are  successful in negatively impacting Russia’s energy infrastructure and its economic interests.  In retaliation, Russia expanded and increased its attacks on more civilian targets. Russia will continue this increased and targeted fighting on Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure and have success as Ukraine is struggling to maintain a strong air defense capability in the face of dwindling assets.

‍ Putin is feeling the pressure.  He is under increasing domestic pressure (as much as that is allowed in Russia [more private than public].  He is limiting his personal exposure due to fear of being hit by Ukrainian attacks and even cancelled some outside public events.  He still speaks with bravado, but his personal actions and behavior are changing.

‍ ‍England’s new PM visited Ukraine in a show of solidarity and also to deliver more UK missiles and, perhaps more importantly, the granting permission to Ukraine to do its own production of those badly needed missiles.  As reported last month, the U.S. agreed to a Patriot missile (surface to air missile) production agreement for Ukraine to produce the much-needed air defense missiles. It will take time to see results from that agreement, but it seems during August there may have been a little hesitancy in the U.S. to follow-through on that agreement.  In a CASIL opinion statement:  We hope the U.S. fulfills its promise to Ukraine.

‍ Summary: Putin remains a master manipulator. But, for the first time since he began his unwarranted invasion on Ukraine, he is feeling pressure – both internal and external. He is not ready to stop, and he will continue to message a different reality of the war.  The significant increase in Russian attacks might signal some desperation on his part.  It is too early to make that observation a final assessment, but it needs close watching. To stop the fighting, Russia must be made to feel pain – economically – and must face a threat – security related – before it will seriously consider sitting down at the peace table for any sincere talks.

‍ ‍Russia is facing more pressure than at any point in the 4+ year war.  We again urge you to read the past several months’ CASIL Notes to get full awareness.

‍ ‍‍

Actions in NATO and Europe.

‍Event: We are moving this back from Alerts to the main body due to several issues in August, but also to illustrate a strategic concern we have.   We continue to watch European actions due to Ukraine-Russian War. NATO “Air Policing” patrols again shot down Russian drones violating NATO nations’ airspace.   This underscores the dangers to neighboring countries in the Russia-Ukraine war (Romania, Hungary, Poland, etc…).   Russia has no regard for airspace violations or safety of innocent civilians when it launches missiles and UAV/Drones.There were also new reports of Russian cyber attacks against NATO countries, and this follows Russian sabotage efforts in Poland, Germany and other countries reported in last month’s CASIL Notes.  Russia is testing individual countries and NATO resolve.  How far can it push the envelope?

‍Summary: Russia will continue its reckless attacks against Ukraine and won’t care who is killed or injured. It will also continue its “gray zone” warfare against European and NATO countries as it has for the past years.  (Read previous CASIL Notes for background).  Multiple NATO and European leadership meetings have, unfortunately, not stopped Russia’s behavior. Russia will continue to pressure those countries and continued sabotage and UAV/Drone incursions in a desire to get them to stop supporting Ukraine and become complacent with Russia’s military activity.

‍ ‍

PRC (China)

‍Event: China remains as a major strategic threat to the U.S. national security. The April Trump-Xi summit came and went. We have not heard much about advances and agreements since that time. The next test:  The September U.S.-China Summit.  What will be discussed?  What will be signed?  Who walks away a winner?

We continue to see China being China and increasing pressure across the Western Pacific  region against anyone aligned with the U.S. or Taiwan.  China continued its busy Summer.  Here’s a summary of China’s actions leading up to this month: 1) The public rebuke of U.S. sanctions on Iran; 2) New military construction in the SCS focused opposite Vietnam; 3) Test launch (unannounced) of a submarine-launched nuclear ballistic missile from the W. Pacific;  4) Naval threats against the Philippines with its “coast guard” (which is a true extension of its PLA-N); 5) the same threats and actions around Taiwan with threats of interfering with commercial shipping; and 6) a New agreement of mutual support with North Korea; 7) Sailed its newest aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait as a sign of power and pressure. 8) Participated with Russia to fly combat aircraft through S. Korea’s ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) as more military messaging. 9) Began coastguard “inspections” of free commercial shipping in international waters near Taiwan. 10) Went head-to-head against the Philippines in the contested (international waters) South China Sea near Scarborough Shoal.

‍Summary: We have a strong series of months of continued PRC pressure against U.S. allies in the region – leading up to the September Summit.  China will continue this pressure.  One reason is to message the region and the U.S. that China can do as it pleases in its “sphere of influence” and the other reason is to anesthetize the region to its behavior until it becomes “normal” – until it is the actual forced takeover of the SCS, Taiwan, etc…. Remember, Xi has stated he wants Taiwan back under PRC control in 2027.

‍ China is an excellent player of the “long-game”.  But perhaps Xi is becoming impatient.  Current assessments indicate China will attempt to take Taiwan by 2027.  China could begin now as it has been rehearsing this military move for years and increasing the tempo of those rehearsals.  The recent pressure against its neighbors is China’s way of positioning itself to control the region should any conflict happen.

‍ ‍

Israel- Hamas War

‍Event: Since the breaking MAJOR DEVELOPMENT on 30/31 July regarding Hamas agreeing to disarm, there has been no positive movement. Hamas disarming has been a key stumbling block since the cease-fire was announced last year. As we said in August’s notes, it is a COMPLEX situation. We are a far from Hamas turning over its weapons and completely disarming.  Quite the opposite – Hamas continued attempting to attack IDF forces beyond the “Yellow Line” and IDF conducted strikes on those Hamas positions.  Expect more.

‍Summary: Our assessment last month was that we were skeptical – unfortunately for peace, we were correct.  There will likely be “flare-ups” in fighting as several Hamas fighters will be reluctant to disarm (that is how they attack Israel and control the Gaza Strip’s residents). Israel will continue to be proactive in its defense to the Hamas attacks. Hamas is not ready to relinquish control and therefore will look to some way to keep that control.

‍ For a comprehensive understanding of this war, please reference my book, “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”.

‍

Syria

‍Event:  We are moving this back into the main body from ALERTS.  Several events happened in August that bring up issues we mentioned several months ago in CASIL Notes. In major news, the U.S. removed Syria from the US list of “state sponsors of terrorism”.  That designation carried automatic sanctions and was placed on Syria in 1979.  Soon after that removal, Syrian Kurds were integrated into the government after agreeing to lay down their arms as a separate force inside Syria (note, the SDF were the U.S.’s allies during the fight against ISIS.)  In the last days of August, Israel conducted airstrikes on a Syrian airfield in the Idlib province as a warning to Turkey not to deploy forces inside Syria. Turkey desires to use Syria as a hedge against Israel and possible staging area for any future potential operations.

‍Showing the strategic importance of Syria, Russia reached a new agreement for use of a critical Syrian port.  Russia needs this for access to the Mediterranean Sea and a warm-water port.  Russia also gained use of a key airfield.  Both these facilities were key forward-deployment locations during the Syrian civil war in which Russia supported the Asad regime’s killing of its citizens.  Israel continues to maintain small-scale military operations in S. Syria to protect the Druze minority being attacked and also cut off terrorists operating locations with the ability to attack into E. Israel. (See past CASIL NOTES for more information.).

‍Summary: See previous editions for background and previous summaries. We will continue to point out that Syria is still NOT a cohesive nation-state and the central Syrian government still has not established it authority over all the country nor has it established a true rule of law.  The U.S. move and Kurdish actions mentioned above will go a long way in changing that dynamic.

‍ With this instability, we will continue to see actions like Israel conducted for its security.  We will also see future ISIS attacks inside Syria. The U.S. will continue gathering intelligence to facilitate strikes on ISIS and keep it from growing stronger in Syria – but the U.S. still needs Syria to step up since the U.S. withdrew its troops from the country.

‍ ‍ ‍

CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)

‍ NEW IN 

‍ ‍North Korea.

‍Event:   Moved back into “Alerts” due to the past month’s actions. The U.S. announced a shortening of bi-lateral ROK-U.S. military exercises due to ROK limited support for U.S. Iranian operations.  Also, as a way of outreach to the DPRK.  KJU responded with threatening rhetoric and statements that it made no difference – he doubled-down on those threats on 30 August and added they will increase their nuclear weapons inventory (they possess ~60 nuclear weapons).  Throughout the month, the DPRK continued multiple missile launches as signals of defiance and threats to ROK, Japan and the U.S. Following the new DPRK partnership agreements with both Russia and China, the DPRK continued providing troops and more missiles to Russia in its war against Ukraine.   KJU also made some subtle moves in his military and political leadership by moving loyal supporters in key roles.

‍Summary:  Regardless of the U.S. limiting its military exercise participation, the DPRK will remain belligerent and a threat to ROK, Japan and stability.  KJU will continue to flex his muscle through military demonstrations.  He also likely feels more emboldened with the enhanced Russia and China partnerships and with what looks like U.S. weakening its partnership with the South.  Expect no change or true engagement with the DPRK.

‍ ‍‍

The so-called MECCA AGREEMENT:

‍ Event: Announced on 7 August:  Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a joint defense agreement.

‍ The agreement says that any armed attack on any one of the three countries will be regarded as an attack against them all.  Sounds a lot like NATO Article 5.  Think about this idea: The alliance, combining KSA's economic power, Turkey's military strength, and Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, could influence regional balance of deterrence and serve as a significant counterweight to Iran on the international stage – BUT ALSO Western States and Israel.

Summary: Last year, KSA and Pakistan signed a joint defense pact.  I’m a little more concerned about that one than I am this one, BUT, this defense pact does not mean good things for the Abraham Accords and KSA agreeing to them.

‍

CONTINUE TO WATCH

‍Venezuela

‍Event: NEW ECONOMIC DEAL WITH U.S.  President Trump posted in late Jul: “The United States of America has just entered into an Agreement with the Country of Venezuela on, THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY!” Let’s look beyond the headlines: Gives the U.S. rights to the development of 17 fields with a proven potential of 65B barrels; Allows U.S. companies to partner with a private operator (not named) in Venezuela to create a new private company to take hold of the reserves; Gives the U.S. 55% effective output of the new company. 

‍Summary:  It is a good deal and one with POSITIVE STRATEGIC BENEFITS – and I’m all about the strategic outlook for our actions and decisions today.  But it is not an immediate payoff. Another aspect of this deal is the fact that the “Western Hemisphere” is the #1 NSS priority for this administration.  That simply means protecting U.S. interests first and eliminating adversary outside influence – which has been accomplished by pushing out China, Russia, Iran and LH influence in Venezuela – with the January Maduro capture and economic partnering.

‍Remember, the two late-June earthquakes.  Recovery will take longer and the poor functioning government will struggle to provide support and relief to its own people.  This bears watching to see the impact on U.S.-Venezuela relations and the Venezuelan government stability.

‍ ‍Pakistan-Afghanistan Continued Fighting

‍Event: Keeping this IN ALERTS.  Fighting remained active, but not at July’s levels. There is still no resolution.  See the past few CASIL NOTES for background. 

‍Summary: No progress in the peace talks.This still requires watching as the fighting could escalate.Based on multiple attacks in the last few days, we could see an escalation in August.

‍ Cuba

‍Event:  We moved Cuba from alerts to continue to watch.  The situation could change quickly as Cuba’s internal crisis continues to worsen. See last several months’ CASIL Notes for more background.

‍ Summary:  While there have been talks, the Communist regime in Cuba is not ready to throw in the towel. There will have to be more suffering for the Cuban people or some form of popular pressure (always hard in an authoritarian country) to cause change. The U.S. will continue to apply pressure to help promote that internal change as it is important (Number one National Security Strategy Objective is the Western Hemisphere) to have economically prosperous and cooperative countries in our hemisphere while simultaneously reducing adversary encroachment.  Change could come soon – within weeks or months.  The challenge is will that change be smooth or have implosive and explosive catastrophic results as the regime collapses.

‍ ‍Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – EBOLA Outbreak

‍Event.   UPDATE:  In mid-May, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an Ebola outbreak in the DRC a public health emergency of international concern. The outbreak has NOT LESSENED in three months.  The WHO said the current strain of Ebola is caused by the Bundibugyo virus. There are no approved drugs or vaccines. There have been over 2500 deaths and over 3,000 cases – with some outside DRC.

‍Summary.  Most Ebola outbreaks are small, but the 2014-16 West Africa outbreak infected over 28,000 (over 11,000 died) – the largest ever outbreak of the disease. This spread must be contained before hundreds, if not thousands die. You can expect to see a multi-national effort to support stopping the spread of one of the deadliest viruses on earth. It does not help international efforts that there continues to be an insurgent war in the area.

‍ ‍MALI

‍ Event: We are moving this back up.  The U.S. continues to consider strikes on Islamic Extremists (al-Queda and ISIS).  Recall on 25 April, Jihadist insurgent groups affiliated with al-Queda and ISIS conducted wide-scale attacks across Mali.  No significant updates/status change.

‍Summary:  See the past several CASIL Notes for more information.  However, as we approach the 25th anniversary of 9/11, it bears remembering: This threat will continue to grow if those governments do not take lasting and coordinated efforts to stop the spread of radical Islamists in their countries. There will be more attacks. Many nations (including the U.S.) ignored al-Queda’s (1990’s) and ISIS’ (2000’s) rise to power and influence thinking this was not their problem.

‍ ‍

News Note This month:  Quick hitting notes:

‍ -        U.S. debt hit $40 TRILLION.  That is not good for our long-term economic well-being.

‍ ‍-        Massive landslide in Nepal-Tibet.  Death toll at publishing ~1,000; missing 4,000+. Rescue operations will continue.

‍ ‍-        Haitian gang violence increasing.  ~ 50 civilians killed in single attack in late August.

‍ ‍-        New fighting in Libya between factions trying to take overall control of the government.

‍ ‍‍-        Costa Rica facing increasing drug cartel violence.  The government is struggling to control the rival factions competing for control of the drug trade and transshipment.

‍ ‍
MOVED OUT

‍ ‍N/A This month.

‍ ‍‍

SPECIAL NOTICE(S):

‍ ‍-        25 Year Anniversary of 9/11.  NEVER FORGET!  We look back on that tragic and eventful day when our world changed.  War brought directly to our shore.  Worst ever single-day loss of American lives by an adversary.  That day al-Qaeda executed an unprovoked, surprise attack on the United States.  The 19 al-Qaeda terrorists attacked the NYC World Trade Center towers, Pentagon and attempted to go after the Capitol Building.  Total Americans killed: 2,977 in NYC, Pentagon and on the four airplanes used in the attack. Thousands more were injured and many have suffered negative health consequences for years after the attack. That unprovoked attack plunged us into a 20-year Global War on Terrorism.  Take a moment to remember those killed that tragic day, and those who later served to combat Global Terror,  NEVER FORGET!

‍ ‍-        A special thank you to all who have served and will serve to protect those freedoms and rights for every American citizen.

‍ ‍-        CASIL would like to continue extending GOOD LUCK and GOD’S SPEED to all our forces fighting against Iran and protecting our freedoms around the globe.  Your superior training and dedication are your own self-generated luck.  That is your advantage.  “Charlie Mike” and Semper Fidelis!

‍ ‍EVENTS:

‍ ‍-  UPCOMING EVENTS

‍ ‍ o   U.S. – China Summit.  PRC President Xi to visit Washington for bilateral meetings with U.S.

‍ o   A couple of key events I failed to mention in the August CASIL Notes:

‍ ‍ — 24 August was Ukrainian Independence Day – 35 Years Free.

‍ ‍ — August marked the only time nuclear weapons were used in war – 6 Aug Hiroshima and 9 Aug Nagasaki.

‍ ‍o   When we get near the end of September, watch for the U.S. to have or not have a budget for FY ’27.  No budget on 1 Oct, likely means a government shutdown and possible negative impacts to our intelligence and security establishments.

‍

-  August continued as a busy news month.  I had several news interviews during the month.  You can find them on the CASIL Website or Mark Chandler’s LinkedIn Page.

‍ ‍o   3 August with LiveNow from Fox on Iran

‍ ‍o   3 August with Austin Denean of SBS – Iran.

‍ ‍o   5 August with News Nation on Iran.

‍ ‍o   12 August with News Nation on Iran.

‍ ‍o   13 August with “America at Night” on Iran

‍ ‍o   17 August with LiveNow from Fox on Iran.

‍ ‍o   18 August with News Nation on Iran

‍ ‍o   21 August with News Nation on Iran.

‍ ‍o   25 August with LiveNow from Fox on Iran.

‍ ‍o   29 August with News Nation on Iran, Venezuela and China Influence.

‍ ‍o   31 August with News Nation on Iran.

‍ ‍

- PUBLIC ENGAGEMENTS

‍ ‍o   I will be sitting on a CCU Panel “9/11 – 25 Years Later” on 3 Sep.

‍ ‍ —  We will discuss events leading to the al-Qaeda attack and the security environment, post 9/11.

‍ ‍o   I have a public speaking engagement in late September in Myrtle Beach.  Looking forward to engaging with a very energized audience.

‍ ‍

Mark S. Chandler

‍ ‍‍

SPECIAL NOTICE –  !! One YEAR OLD!!

‍ ‍BOOK.  “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”.

‍ ‍-        It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War.  This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.

‍ ‍-        It is available in e-book and paperback from Amazon.

‍ ‍ Thank you to those who have purchased it, and your positive feedback has been greatly appreciated.

‍ ‍