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CASIL NOTES
- COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –
ISSUE 20: NOVEMBER
CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large. The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the “Event” with a “Summary” as to possible implications.
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MONTHLY SUMMARY:
We open November with the U.S. going to the polls on 3 November. All indications point to a major U.S. military operation against Iran “soon” after those elections. New Sanctions were levied in October. The latest sanctions included adding Iranian ghost oil fleet to the list and banks that support the selling of that oil. Sanctions ARE WORKING but will NOT BE enough to truly change the Islamic Regime’s behavior. As the month opens, we face potential for new talks (Iran will offer pseudo-diplomatic overtures) or the RAPID ESCALTION of combat operations against Iran. What will happen? Will Iran be sincere in talks? How long will this conflict continue? All answers remain unknown.
As there are still many events happening around the world, we will cover those (albeit BRIEFLY). As always, these events argue for a continued “strategic approach/awareness”. Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure continued, but Russia continued increased Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure – and Putin made a peace overture (but then attacked again). China’s President Xi continues his dangerous consolidation of power with more senior level purges.
U.S. and Israel War on Iran
Event: This section is brief this month. To comprehend this issue’s complexity, you must read all CASIL Notes since March.
We opened October with talk of possible new negotiations. They went nowhere. Now, we open NOVEMBER with the strong possibility of the U.S. (and Israel?) commencing NEW MAJOR Offensive operations. Sources indicate these operations will be at a level similar to what happened at the start of this campaign on 28 Feb. They could begin as early as 4 Nov. In our assessment, Iran only wants to negotiate to remove the U.S. economic/military pressure. Iran has set “conditions” to open the SoH, but those conditions only benefit Iran. If we enter negotiations, it should be from a position of strength and with leverage against Iran. We are gaining more of both. But and this is critical to understand, Iran does not feel it is less strong or defeated at this point.
The “focus of main effort” for the U.S. has been economic pressure since August. That IS having a negative impact on the Iranian economy. It TAKES TIME, however. Sanctions are complex and no one has truly ever sanctioned everything. So many levels and so many people and businesses and countries. However, economic pressure alone will not force the Islamic Regime to capitulate.
Summary: While people generally do not like using full military force, sometimes it is required. This is one of those times if we are to drive to some conclusion in the U.S.’s (and regional and world) favor - military force is required.
NOTE: If the U.S. resumes major combat operations, remember Iran gets a vote on how to retaliate. It will. You should expect to see missile and drone attacks on U.S. forces in the Middle East, attacks on Israel and the Gulf States. It likely won’t stop there. Iran has an extensive clandestine intelligence network in Europe and could initiate some attacks there (recall RAF Fairford). Finally, the U.S. homeland isn’t immune. Recall the cyber attacks in July. Expect more. Look for the potential for some sabotage or attempts (by operatives or inspired individuals) inside the U.S.
IF YOU SEE SOMETHING, SAY SOMETHING!
SAUDI ARABIA Vs. HOUTHI FIGHTING
Event: Fighting between the two continued its escalation over the past three months. READ the last two CASIL Notes for full details. The fighting is fierce on the ground in Yemen between the Houthis and the Yemeni government’s coalition forces. The fighting is also intense with the Houthis continuing missile and drone strikes across Saudi Arabia against airfields, military facilities, oil facilities and even a couple of time against Mecca and Medina.
Saudi Arabia has asked for military support. The U.S. is providing planning and intelligence support but not going any further – the U.S. focus needs to be singularly on the Iran fight. Both France and Britain pledged military defensive support and they are now deploying forces. Pakistan has moved some defensive forces into KSA and Egypt just approved the use of its military forces to KSA.
Summary: The Houthi gains help Iran and its campaign against the U.S. and Gulf States. They threaten regional stability and global commercial shipping. Their advances must be turned back.
We conducted at least 8 live interviews in October and almost every one of them was on the dynamic/evolving Middle East conflict. A combination of those interviews covers the details and evolving issues very well. It is best if you review those interviews instead of us trying to write out all the complex details and nuances. Please refer to the CASIL Website (and Mark Chandler on LinkedIn), and previous CASIL Notes.
Worth REPEATING from previous CASIL Notes. We mentioned the need to think at the Strategic, Operational and Tactical Levels of War and Diplomacy. That is still critical – refer to that issue for details.
- We can win the war, but LOSE THE PEACE
NOW ON TO THE REGULAR NEWSLETTER
Ukraine – Russia
Event: October saw this issue grow in complexity and confusion. INCREASED levels of attacks by both Ukraine and Russia continue. Ukraine continues to exploit its success (begun in May) with drone attacks deeper into Russia. Those attacks are having success in negatively impacting Russia’s energy infrastructure and its economic interests. In retaliation, Russia expanded and increased its attacks on more civilian targets. Russia will continue these increased attacks on Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure -- especially as we approach the winter months. Russia desires to inflict as much pain as possible on the Ukrainian civilian population. Ukraine is struggling to maintain a strong air defense capability in the face of dwindling assets. Something that didn’t help was Starlink slowing the data link speed of its satellites. This hindered Ukraine’s air defenses (making it easier for Russia to attack and kill civilians) and hindered Ukraine’s ability to attack deeper into Russia to inflict needed costs on Russia against those attacks. Another issue was President Trump’s deal to buy diesel fuel from Russia and bypass U.S. sanctions. While this helps Russia and seemed like a negative deal, there was an American hostage (Stephen Hubbard) released about a week later (so maybe there was more to it than originally seen.) We will point out this linkage: The U.S. is giving Russia millions$$ to help fund its war machine against Ukraine while also allowing Russia to continue to support Iran in its battle against the U.S. in the Middle East. Interesting to say the least.
Putin is feeling the military pressure, so he is applying more drastic measures against Ukraine. However, he also feels some relief with the moves mentioned above. He gets momentum from these public deals and feels emboldened to act more aggressively while it seems the U.S. is hamstringing Ukraine.
NOTE: Not all of Russia’s efforts are directed against Ukraine and Europe. It was confirmed during the month; Russia is attempting to interfere in the U.S. mid-term elections (like they have for at least a decade). They are putting out significant disinformation, to the American public, targeted against Democrats and Republicans who express/push for support for Ukraine.
Summary: One should NEVER underestimate Putin – he remains a master manipulator. But he is feeling pressure – both internal and external. He is not ready to stop, and he will continue to message a different reality of the war. To stop the fighting, Russia must be made to feel pain – economically – and must face a threat – security related – before it will seriously consider sitting down at the peace table for any sincere talks.
We again urge you to read the past several months’ CASIL Notes to get full awareness.
Actions in NATO and Europe.
Event: This stays the main body due to several issues from July - October, but also to illustrate a strategic concern we have. We continue to watch European actions due to Ukraine-Russian War. NATO “Air Policing” patrols again shot down Russian drones (at least three months in a row) violating NATO nations’ airspace. This continues to underscore the dangers to neighboring countries in the Russia-Ukraine war (Romania, Hungary, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, etc…). Russia has no regard for airspace violations or safety of innocent civilians when it launches missiles and UAV/Drones. Russian sabotage efforts against NATO countries continue to be confirmed. New reports surfaced in October of increased Russian cyber-attacks across Europe. Russia is testing individual countries and NATO resolve. How far can it push the envelope?
Summary: Russia will continue its reckless attacks against Ukraine and won’t care who is killed or injured. It will also continue its “gray zone” warfare against European and NATO countries as it has for the past years. (Read previous CASIL Notes for background). Multiple NATO and European leadership meetings have, unfortunately, not stopped Russia’s behavior. Russia will continue to pressure those countries and continued sabotage and UAV/Drone incursions in a desire to get them to stop supporting Ukraine and become complacent with Russia’s military activity.
PRC (China)
Event: China remains as a major strategic threat to the U.S. national security. The September U.S.-China Summit came and went. We asked these questions: “What will be discussed? What will be signed? Who walks away a winner?” in September’s CASIL Notes. Well, two Newsletters later, we’re still waiting on the answer. We now see the POTENTIAL for another meeting between the leaders on the side-lines of November’s ASEAN Conference. We will see if there is any progress in those talks (if there are any).
President Xi has spent his recent time focused on CONSOLIDATING POWER. Previous CASIL Notes mentioned military leadership purges (almost every senior officer purged. He continues purging old confidants and allies and did so to one of China’s richest men in Oct. At the Annual Communist Party Plenum in late Oct, he purged over 30 senior officials. Xi wants no opposition to his plans and power and he’s doing well achieving that.
Meanwhile China is continues increasing pressure across the Western Pacific region against anyone aligned with the U.S. or Taiwan. This will not stop! See past CASIL Notes for many of the incidents.
Summary: We have a strong series of months of continued PRC pressure against U.S. allies in the region. China will continue this pressure. One reason is to message the region and the U.S. that China can do as it pleases in its “sphere of influence” and the other reason is to anesthetize the region to its behavior until it becomes “normal” – until it is the actual forced takeover of the SCS, Taiwan, etc…. Remember, Xi has stated he wants Taiwan back under PRC control in 2027.
China is an excellent player of the “long-game”. But perhaps Xi is becoming impatient. Current assessments indicate China will attempt to take Taiwan by 2027. China could begin now as it has been rehearsing this military move for years and increasing the tempo of those rehearsals. The recent pressure against its neighbors is China’s way of positioning itself to control the region should any conflict happen.
NOTE: Keep an eye on Xi health reporting. There are reports China is covering up some potentially troubling health issue for Xi. He reportedly had an “episode” in India just recently and that is something to watch.
Spoiled Attack Attempt on RAF Fairford
Event: UPDATE: Recall that on 27 September, five men were caught trying to infiltrate British airbase, RAF Fairford, in England. This is the base in England from where the U.S. stages its bomber flights (B-1 and B-52) for attacks against Iran. We have operated from there at various times since 1990/91 and Desert Storm. At the time of publication, the details were still emerging. Such a bold attempt if disconcerting. But at least it was stopped. I interviewed twice in two days on this subject. Biggest question; Who Was Behind It? At publication time last month, we assessed either Iran or Russia (and gave our reasoning behind both [see last month’s CASIL Notes]).
Summary: NEW…Since that attempt: 1) The UK came out and said its investigation revealed Iran was behind the attempt. 2) The U.S. withdrew the B-1 bombers staged at RAF Fairford for force protection measures and to ensure they were not susceptible to the continuing threat. It should be noted that Iran will not be deterred from continued planning/attempts against our forces deployed in Europe. (And we cannot forget that Russia continues its gray zone attacks across all of Europe).
North Korea.
Event: We must move this up from Alerts back into the main section. North Korea is ratcheting up the bellicose rhetoric and military demonstrations. Throughout October, there were multiple missile launches used to demonstrate its power, howitzers (with painted intimidations messages to President Trump) were moved to firing positions along the DMZ, KJU’s sister (long a public voice for threatening statements) gave a threatening speech directed at ROK and U.S., and KJU held a public meeting with military personnel to charge them with “getting ready for combat”. This follows late September’s landmine incident when DPRK planted NEW minefields in the DMZ resulting in injuries to several ROK military personnel. Two months ago, DPRK announced they will increase their nuclear weapons inventory (they possess ~60 nuclear weapons). Don’t forget the new DPRK partnership agreements with both Russia and China. This was on display as KJU visited PRC during October.
NOTE: KJU was dead and then he wasn’t. During a confusing 3-4 period, sources reported KJU was dead, and there was significant speculation over the reporting. None of the reporting was confirmed, but that didn’t stop it. Obviously, he wasn’t dead, but we need to urge caution on repeating unconfirmed information – especially over such a significant event. IF KJU dies unexpectedly, it could lead to a significant crisis as there is no clear leadership transition in place. His daughter (the “chosen” heir) is only 12, but his sister has been wielding influence on/off for years. Expect chaos and the potential for conflict could escalate quickly as a power struggle could develop among the Kim followers and older military leadership.
Summary: The DPRK will remain belligerent and a threat to ROK, Japan and regional stability. KJU will continue to flex his muscle through military demonstrations. He also likely feels more emboldened with the enhanced Russia and China partnerships and with what looks like U.S. weakening its partnership with the South. Expect no change or true engagement with the DPRK.
Israel- Hamas War
Event: We have passed THREE YEARS SINCE THE HAMAS ATTACKS (7 October). Since the news on 30/31 July about Hamas’ agreeing to disarm, there has been no positive movement. Hamas disarming has been a key stumbling block since the cease-fire was announced last year. As we keep saying, it is a COMPLEX situation. We are a far from Hamas turning over its weapons and completely disarming. Quite the opposite – Hamas has continued attempting to attack IDF forces beyond the “Yellow Line”. Hamas is using its network to conduct attacks outside the Gaza Strip – there was a terrorist attack near the end of October in the West Bank. Those will continue. The IDF conducted operations and strikes on Hamas positions. We said “expect more” and both sides did so. We leave this with, expect more.
Summary: Our assessment last month was that we were skeptical for peace – we remain so. There will likely be “flare-ups” in fighting as several Hamas fighters will be reluctant to disarm (that is how they attack Israel and control the Gaza Strip’s residents). Israel will continue to be proactive in its defense to the Hamas attacks. Hamas is not ready to relinquish control and therefore will look to some way to keep that control.
For a comprehensive understanding of this war, please reference my book, “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”.
CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)
NEW IN
Ethiopia
Event: The Ethiopian civil war that erupted again in September continued its path in October. This effectively ended the fragile four-year old truce. The rebels are primarily from the Tigray region (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) and have fought for independence for about a decade. Over 600,000 people were killed during the initial fighting.
Summary: This obviously creates an even more chaotic region. However, it COULD GET WORSE. If Eritrea (which fought a war of independence against Ethiopia for 30 years) enters the fight on the side of the Tigray rebels, then the situation will spiral out of control. The region does not need more instability on the Red Sea coast.
CONTINUE TO WATCH
Venezuela
Event: We’re moving this back into “continue to watch” because of a potential for political unrest. Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela 25 Oct. She was forced into exile due to safety concerns from the Maduro regime. This is her first time back in the country after the U.S. captured Maduro and worked multiple deals with the current government. There are no public plans for new elections, but her return will create a new dynamic in the Venezuelan political landscape.
Summary: No one is quite sure how this will affect the political landscape or recent U.S.-Venezuelan economic deals, but it bears watching. The government is not a free and democratic one, so chances for instability remain. The likely outcome would be for the sitting government (old Maduro cronies) to announce new national elections in 2027. Perhaps those elections will be truly open, fair and honest.
Syria
Event: Following the many events in August (See previous CASIL Notes), there has been no major change to the situation on the ground. We have not seen progress in Syria being able to establish governance and security across the country as a whole. There was a terrorist attack on a church in Jordan that had ties to terrorists in S. Syria. Jordan conducted airstrikes in Daara province in retaliation.
Summary: See previous editions for background and previous summaries. We will continue to point out that Syria is still NOT a cohesive nation-state, and the central Syrian government still has not established it authority over all the country nor has it established a true rule of law (as evidenced by the Jordanian (and continued Israeli action in S. Syria). We are not sure at this stage how this will play out, but Syria remains far from a stable situation.
Pakistan-Afghanistan Continued Fighting.
Event: This one is staying in alerts. We saw an uptick in fighting in September and a moderation in October. There was a major Taliban-backed terrorist attack inside Pakistan and Pakistan responded with several airstrikes along the border. There were also some ground fighting along the border. There is still no resolution. See the past few CASIL NOTES for background.
Summary: No progress in the peace talks. This still requires watching as the fighting could escalate.
Cuba
Event: The only different news is that President Trump said we’ll turn our more-focused attention to Cuba after we handle the Iranian situation. We’re keeping it here just to maintain awareness of this potential crisis 90 miles from our shores. The situation could change quickly as Cuba’s internal crisis continues to worsen. Cuba suffered another major power outage across the whole island. See last several months’ CASIL Notes for more background.
Summary: While there have been talks, the Communist regime in Cuba is not ready to throw in the towel. There will have to be more suffering for the Cuban people or some form of popular pressure (always hard in an authoritarian country) to cause change. The U.S. will continue to apply pressure to help promote that internal change. Change could come soon – within weeks or months. The challenge is will that change be smooth or have implosive and explosive catastrophic results as the regime collapses.
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – EBOLA Outbreak
Event. We moved this BACK IN…This outbreak is SPREADING. We have been tracking since the outbreak was announced in May. The outbreak has only lessened to a small degree in four months. There have been over 4,600 deaths and over 10,000 cases. There are confirmed cases in Kenya and Nigeria – it is spreading. – with some outside DRC.
Summary. Most Ebola outbreaks are small, but the 2014-16 West Africa outbreak infected over 28,000 (over 11,000 died) – the largest ever outbreak of the disease. This is the second largest Ebola outbreak on the continent and is STILL SPREADING. We will add that it does not help international efforts that there continues to be an insurgent war in the area.
News Notes This month: Quick hitting notes:
- Israeli Elections. In nation wide elections, Israelis went to the polls to elect a new government. Israel operates on a parliamentary system, so they do not directly elect their Prime Minister. Now, the various political parties will work to create a governing coalition for their Knesset and select a new Prime Minister from that coalition. This could take weeks to work.
- India-China Border Tension. Back in 2020, there was a brief but brutal clash along the border between these two adversaries. Throughout September, tensions continued to grow and new accusations are being voiced by both countries. NOTE: China has, for the past 8-10 years been improving its military capabilities in its far western region – partly to defend against India.
- Cyber on U.S. Military Commissaries. Hackers took control of the freezer/refrigeration temperature control systems and turned up the temperature to ruin food. Early speculation is that Iran was responsible. Recall, there was a similar attack on civilian grocery stores several weeks ago.
- Cyber Attack on Binance near end of Oct. Stole and estimated $6+B in cyber currency. Early speculation is that North Korea was behind the attack.
- Cyber vulnerability discovered. The coding (PHP) behind internet websites was discovered to have a critical vulnerability. PHP is a server‑side programming language powering about 70% of the world’s websites. Immediate steps by corporations, universities, governments were made to “patch” the vulnerability. Most websites using PHP operated slowly, or didn’t work, for about 24 hours during the process.
MOVED OUT
Iraq. We are moving this out.
Event: Just a reminder: The U.S. announced on 29 Sept all U.S. forces have been withdrawn from Iraq. That’s 23 years after we invaded Iraq. I was there at the beginning in 2003 when we rapidly defeated the Iraqi military and captured Baghdad. We accomplished a great military victory more quickly than we even thought.
Summary: The U.S. will maintain intelligence support to Iraq. We have departed Iraq, but AQ, ISIS, Shia militia and Iran all remain. I seriously doubt Iraq is stable and secure. Iran has infiltrated the government and the military.
SPECIAL NOTICE(S):
- A special thank you to all who have served and will serve to protect those freedoms and rights for every American citizen.
- CASIL would like to continue extending GOOD LUCK and GOD’S SPEED to all our forces fighting against Iran and protecting our freedoms around the globe. Your superior training and dedication are your own self-generated luck. That is your advantage. “Charlie Mike” and Semper Fidelis!
EVENTS:
- UPCOMING EVENTS
o 3 November. U.S. Election Day. Go exercise your right to vote.
o 10 November. United States Marine Corps BIRTHDAY. The Marine Corps will be 251 Years Young on that day. Thank a Marine!
o 11 November. Veterans Day. This is the day we set aside to THANK our military veterans for their answering the call to serve our nation and protect each and every one of us and our way of life. Thank a Vet!
- October saw a steady pace with media engagements. Here is a listing of news interviews and topics during the month.
o 1 October with LiveNow from Fox – Pentagon GO/FO Cuts.
o 7 October with LiveNow from Fox on Iran and Israel-Hamas 3d Anniversary.
o 12 October with “America at Night” on Russia + a little Iran.
o 15 October with Austin Denean of SBS – U.S. use of MOAB in Iran.
o 17 October with LiveNow from Fox on Middle East and Iran.
o 22 October with News Nation on Iran.
o 23 October with LiveNow from Fox on Iran.
o 24 October with News Nation on Ukraine Fighting and Possible Ceasefire.
- PUBLIC ENGAGEMENTS
o I presented a talk on Cyberspace Awareness and the Threat to Everyday Americans and our way of life to the South Carolina Correctional Association’s annual conference. The group was very engaged throughout the talk and I was welcomed with open arms and a great audience. Thank you.
o UPCOMING: I will provide my global security environment talk to a Myrtle Beach group with members also scattered across the U.S. Always a great and active audience. Looking forward to it!
Mark S. Chandler
BOOK. “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”.
- It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War. This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.
- It is available in e-book and paperback from Amazon.