CASIL NOTES - JULY Newsletter
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CASIL NOTES
- COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –
ISSUE 16: JULY 2026
CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large. The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the “Event” with a “Summary” as to possible implications.
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MONTHLY SUMMARY: The U.S. – Iran “fight” continues. We open July the same way we did the past three months; we are still in a CEASE FIRE. Last month a major diplomatic MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) was signed. It has 14 points. It does not mean a final agreement has been reached. It has not stopped attacks. We continue to ask: How long will it last? What will be the outcome? Both remain unknown. The stakes for today and tomorrow remain high. There are key aspects of the war that must be addressed. As there are still many events happening around the world, we will cover those (albeit BRIEFLY). As always, these events argue for a continued “strategic approach/awareness”. We should maintain awareness of the increased Ukrainian attacks in the Ukraine-Russia War; the China has stepped up pressure on Taiwan, Japan and The Philippines – so much for that U.S.- China summit. The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continues to grow and there were two massive earthquakes in Venezuela causing major death and destruction.
U.S. and Israel War on Iran
Event: We open July a few days into a 60-Day cease-fire agreement. After almost six weeks of sustained, and excellent, combat operations, a “temporary” cease-fire with Iran began on 8 April. The formal MOU was signed on 15 June. The new 60-day clock started ticking then. We will emphasize this fact. There is NO DEAL. The MOU is ONLY an agreement to talk about the various 14 points and make some financial incentive for Iran. We have a long way to go – more than the 60 days stated in the MOU.
There are 14 points to the ceasefire. By 1 July, the only real agreements that have been implemented are: The U.S. lifted its blockade of Iranian ports, the U.S. lifted most economic sanctions, and the U.S. allowed Iran to begin selling its oil again. There was one discussion of the Iranian nuclear weapons program as both sides disagreed as to what was agreed. From our assessment, Iran seems to be gaining all the early benefits and incentives.
The military operations against Iran were some of the most successful in U.S. military history – accomplishing the military objectives that U.S. political leadership established. The advantage at the beginning of the ceasefire was all to the U.S. and Israel. That has shifted, in our assessment.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). This has created a significant pressure-point on the region and the U.S. in negotiations. It is Point #5 in the MOU. Iran must “open” the SoH and ensure safe passage. It was supposed to be immediate, but Iran has not fully allowed open shipping through the SoH. The attacks on ships in the last few days of June are a prime example of how Iran is trying to maintain control through threats.
We conducted at least 12 live interviews in June on the evolving and dynamic situation. A combination of those interviews covers the details and evolving issues very well. It is best if you review those interviews instead of us trying to write out all the complex details and nuances. Please refer to the CASIL Website (and Mark Chandler on LinkedIn), and June’s CASIL Notes for further details.
Worth REPEATING from previous CASIL Notes. We mentioned the need to think at the Strategic, Operational and Tactical Levels of War and Diplomacy. That is still critical – refer to that issue for details.
- We can win the war, but LOSE THE PEACE —
As with all major crises, there are sides lining up to support or oppose. Our mission is not to tell you which way to lean as it is TOO LATE. That is an academic argument to make you feel better. If you want to argue the right/wrong of the fight, relegate that to history class, the living room or bar talk. The focus now should be on the best outcome for the United States and the safety of our forces – now and into the FUTURE.
We will repeat this as it is critical to understanding. We are in the fight and now we must push this to a conclusion that benefits our national interests, our security and the security for the region. You can also see that the vast ranging economic impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure/control by Iran is having. In our assessment through 40+ years in watching this challenge, that threat must be eliminated.
NOW ON TO THE REGULAR NEWSLETTER
PRC (China)
Event: China remains as a major strategic threat to the U.S. national security. During the May summit, China had a chance to show its great diplomatic outreach and influence by pressuring Iran to a deal (especially since China needs Iranian oil). It did not.
The Trump-Xi summit came and went. We have not heard much about advances and agreements since that time. The best outcome was that no harm was done and the two sides remain talking.
What we HAVE SEEN, though, is China being China and increasing pressure across the region against anyone aligned with the U.S. or Taiwan. China was busy in June. Here’s a summary of China’s actions in June alone: 1) Sailed its newest aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait as a sign of power and pressure. 2) Participated with Russia to fly combat aircraft through S. Korea’s ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) as more military messaging. 3) Began coastguard “inspections” of free commercial shipping in international waters near Taiwan. 4) Went head-to-head against the Philippines in the contested (international waters) South China Sea near Scarborough Shoal.
Summary: Will all the deals from the summit come to fruition? Will PRC stop stealing U.S. intellectual property? The biggest sticking point, however, remains U.S. support to Taiwan. Remember, Xi has stated he wants Taiwan back under PRC control in 2027. You should also know China is studying the fight (military, economic and diplomatic) against Iran with front-row interest in see how we employ our power capabilities.
China is an excellent player of the “long-game”. But perhaps Xi is becoming impatient. Current assessments indicate China will attempt to take Taiwan by 2027. China could actually begin now as it has been rehearsing this military move for years and increasing the tempo of those rehearsals. The recent pressure against its neighbors is China’s way of positioning itself to control the region should any conflict happen.
Ukraine – Russia
Event: Russia INCREASED its attacks on Ukraine – especially in the second half of May. We keep seeing “one of the largest attacks in the war’s history” only to be surpassed a few days later by another “one of the largest in the war’s history”. Russia’s annual Spring offensive has not proven successful. There are some new indicators Ukraine is regaining small pieces of territory in the East.
In recent weeks Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian oil and gas infrastructure targets have caused fuel shortages to spread from Russian-annexed Crimea to nearby parts of southern Russia, and even to the capital Moscow (although Moscow is not showing those impacts like outlying cities/areas). These attacks ARE HAVING a NEGATIVE impact on Russia’s energy sector. We don’t want to characterize this as a turning point in the war in Ukraine’s favor, but with the recent Ukrainian successes, Russia is facing more pressure than at any point in the 4+ year war. We again urge you to read the past several months’ CASIL Notes to get full awareness.
Summary: Putin is a master manipulator. He will tell you what you want to hear, while all the time working any deal to his/Russia’s advantage. While Russia’s information campaign is unrivaled (except perhaps for China’s and Iran’s), the significant increase in attacks might signal some desperation on his part. It is too early to make that observation a final assessment, but it needs close watching. To stop the fighting, Russia must be made to feel pain – economically – and must face a threat – security related – before it will seriously consider sitting down at the peace table for any sincere talks.
CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)
NEW IN
Pakistan-Afghanistan Continued Fighting
Event: Putting this BACK IN ALERTS. Fighting escalated in late June after a small lull (not stopped) in May. There is still no resolution. There were at least two Taliban-backed terrorist attacks against Pakistan military/government sites in June. Pakistan increased airstrikes along its border with Afghanistan and also conducted some small-scale ground operations against villages along the border during the last week of June. See the past few CASIL NOTES for background.
Summary: No progress in the peace talks. This still requires watching as the fighting could escalate after the June uptick in fighting and terrorist attacks.
Israel- Hamas War
Event: In the last few days of May, PM Netanyahu directed the IDF to take over 70% of Gaza’s territory. That was up from their original 50% than was moved to 60%. Hamas attempted some attacks on IDF positions in June and paid the price. This will continue until Hamas is disarmed and removed from the Gaza Strip.
Summary: There will likely be “flare-ups” in fighting as several hundred Hamas fighters continue small attacks on IDF positions near/across the “Yellow line”. Israel is being proactive in its defense to the Hamas attacks and the fact that Hamas has still not agreed to all cease-fire terms for Phase 2. Phase two is moving now, but that is the case for several months. Two key elements are: 1) a transition to Palestinian rule for Gaza and the West Bank, and 2) Hamas fighters must lay down its arms and not be part of any future Gaza Strip government. But neither 1 nor 2 have happened. This is the most extensive and best chance at a deal since Hamas started this war over two years ago. Hamas is not ready to relinquish control.
Venezuela
Event: This is back in because of the two late-June earthquakes. There was major destruction in and near Caracas and surrounding cities. Thousands are left homeless and missing. As of this publication, over 1500 are confirmed dead with that death toll likely to climb. See previous editions for background.
Summary: The international community is banding together to support relief efforts. The U.S. is right in that mix with the U.S. military (led by U.S. SOUTHERN COMMAND) conducting HA/DR operations (Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief). These operations will take time. Recovery will take longer and the poor functioning government will struggle to provide support and relief to its own people. This bears watching to see the impact on U.S.-Venezuela relations and also the Venezuelan government stability.
Syria
Event: We are moving this back to ALERTS. In the last days of June, Israel conducted small-scale military operations in S. Syria. These were two-fold: Protect the Druze minority being attacked and also cut off terrorists operating locations with the ability to attack into E. Israel. Of note, ISIS continues to operate inside Syria with little government control. In mid-June (19th), the U.S. conducted airstrikes that killed a senior ISIS Commander - Ali Husayn al-Ulaywi. The U.S. will continue gathering intelligence to facilitate such strikes and work to keep ISIS from growing stronger in Syria – but the U.S. needs Syria to step up since the U.S. withdrew its troops from the country.
Summary: See previous editions for background and previous summaries. We will continue to point out that Syria is NOT a cohesive nation-state and the central Syrian government still has not established it authority over all of the country and establish a true rule of law. With this instability, we will continue to see actions like Israel conducted for its security. We will also see future ISIS attacks inside Syria.
Cuba
Event: We moved Cuba to alerts because it bears watching. The situation could change quickly as Cuba’s internal crisis continues to worsen. No major developments during June, but Cuba remains on a downward spiral. See last month’s CASIL Notes for more background.
Summary: While there have been talks, the Communist regime in Cuba is not ready to throw in the towel. There will have to be more suffering for the Cuban people or some form of popular pressure (always hard in an authoritarian country) to cause change. The U.S. will continue to apply pressure to help promote that internal change as it is important (Number one National Security Strategy Objective is the Western Hemisphere) to have economically prosperous and cooperative countries in our hemisphere while simultaneously reducing adversary encroachment. Change could come soon – within a few weeks or months. The challenge is will that change be smooth or have implosive and explosive catastrophic effects as the regime heads toward collapse.
CONTINUE TO WATCH
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – EBOLA Outbreak
Event. UPDATE: In mid-May, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an Ebola outbreak in the DRC a public health emergency of international concern. The WHO said the current strain of Ebola is caused by the Bundibugyo virus. There are no approved drugs or vaccines. There have been over 350 deaths and over 1200 cases – with some outside DRC.
Summary. Most Ebola outbreaks are small, but the 2014-16 West Africa outbreak infected over 28,000 (over 11,000 died) – the largest ever outbreak of the disease. This spread must be contained before hundreds, if not thousands die. You can expect to see a multi-national effort to support stopping the spread of one of the deadliest viruses on earth. It does not help international efforts that there continues to be an insurgent war in the area.
Actions in NATO and Europe.
Event: We continue to watch European actions due to Ukraine-Russian War. Recall, during the last couple of days in May, a Russian attack drone hit an apartment building in Romania – no deaths, but several injured. This underscores the dangers to neighboring countries in the Russia-Ukraine war (Romania, Hungary, Poland, etc…). Russia has no regard for airspace violations or safety of innocent civilians when it launches missiles and UAV/Drones.
Summary: Russia will continue its reckless attacks against Ukraine and won’t care who is injured. It will also continue its “gray zone” warfare against European and NATO countries as it has for the past years. (Read previous CASIL Notes for background). Multiple NATO and European leadership meetings have, unfortunately, not stopped Russia’s behavior. Russia will continue to pressure those countries and continued UAV/Drone incursions in a desire to get them to stop supporting Ukraine and become complacent with Russia’s military activity.
North Korea.
The DPRK conducted more missile launches in May and June. Additionally, KJU also indicated a further advancement in its nuclear weapons program and continued development. (NOTE: North Korea possesses 50-60 nuclear weapons [public record numbers]). The IC noted there are strong indications DPRK has increased production in its nuclear weapons program in recent months.
MOVED OUT
NIGERIA – ISIS
EVENT: Recall in Mid-May, the U.S. conducted joint military operations in Nigeria. The strikes killed almost 200 ISIS fighters. Of importance, the U.S. strikes also killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki on May 16. He was ISIS’ number 2 global leader. That was a significant success. Refer to December and January CASIL Notes for background on Islamic extremists in Nigeria.
SUMMARY: We have written about the continued growth in Islamic extremist groups’ growing influence in Africa. This threat will continue to grow if those governments do not take lasting and coordinated efforts to stop the spread of radical Islamists in their countries. Remember, many nations (including the U.S.) ignored al-Queda’s (1990’s) and ISIS’ (2000’s) rise to power and influence thinking this was not their problem.
MALI
Event: We are moving this out. Recall on 25 April, Jihadist insurgent groups affiliated with al-Queda and ISIS conducted wide-scale attacks across Mali. No significant updates/status change.
Summary: We have written about the continued growth in Islamic extremist groups’ growing influence in Africa. We also touched on the fact that several African nations (Mali being one) chose Russia over the U.S. and France to militarily partner with to help stem the growing threat. This threat will continue to grow if those governments do not take lasting and coordinated efforts to stop the spread of radical Islamists in their countries. There will be more attacks like this. Remember, many nations (including the U.S.) ignored al-Queda’s (1990’s) and ISIS’ (2000’s) rise to power and influence thinking this was not their problem.
United Arab Emirates (UAE)
EVENT: We are moving this out. At the end of April UAE announced it is withdrawing from OPEC. This was a surprising move – in the middle of the energy crisis of the Iranian War -- OR was it? See last two CASIL Notes for details.
SUMMARY: This CERTAINLY bears watching as this unusual tension is concerning to our overall Middle East strategy – and security – and could reshape Middle East dynamics that have been in place for decades – especially depending on how cease-fire talks between the U.S. and Iran proceed.
SPECIAL NOTICE(S):
- HAPPY BIRTHDAY AMERICA on 4 July! You are 250 Years Strong and Free. This is a time for all of us to reflect on the freedoms our great nation have and stands for – and always will. While we might have a few flaws, America stands tall as the greatest nation on the planet and a beacon of freedom for all to emulate.
- A special thank you to all who have served and will serve to protect those freedoms and rights for every American citizen.
- CASIL would like to extend GOOD LUCK and GOD’S SPEED to all our forces fighting against Iran and protecting our freedoms around the globe. Your superior training and dedication are your own self-generated luck. That is your advantage. “Charlie Mike” and Semper Fidelis!
EVENTS:
- UPCOMING EVENTS
o PODCAST LAUNCH – STRATEGIC AFFAIRS WITH MARK CHANDLER
— First five Episodes are available now
— More coming in July
- We thought May was a busy news month. WOW in June! Even more news engagements than May. I had several news interviews during the month.
o 4 Jun with News Nation on Iran.
o 5 Jun with LiveNow from Fox on Iran.
o 7 Jun with News Nation on the Iran.
o 12 Jun with News Nation on Iran.
o 12 Jun with “America at Night” on Iran.
o 13 June with LiveNow from Fox on Tren de Aragua
o 14 Jun with LiveNow from Fox on Iran.
o 15 Jun with “America at Night” on Iran.
o 18 Jun with LiveNow from Fox on Iran – Audience Q&A
o 19 Jun with LiveNow from Fox on Iran
o 21 Jun with News Nation on Iran
o 28 Jun with LiveNow from Fox on Iran.
o 29 Jun with “America at Night” on Iran.
o 30 Jun with News Nation on Iran.
- PUBLIC ENGAGEMENTS
o I was fortunate to participate in a Veterans ceremony called “Quilts of Valor”. It was put on by the “Quilts of Valor Foundation”. Their goal is to present veterans hand-made quilts illustrating the Nation's embrace and appreciation for their service and dedication. It was quite a moving ceremony as each veteran was "wrapped" in their own personal quilt -- the embrace of a thankful nation. This organization does great work in these ceremonies to honor our vets.
o Had a great public speaking engagement with “The Little River Patriots”. Concerned citizens interested in what’s happening in the world and how it affects the U.S. We spent a great deal of time talking about Iran.
Mark S. Chandler
SPECIAL NOTICE – !! One YEAR OLD!!
BOOK. “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”.
- It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War. This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.
- It is available in e-book and paperback from
Thank you to those who have purchased it, and your positive feedback has been greatly appreciated.