CASIL NOTES - JUNE Newsletter
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CASIL NOTES
- COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –
ISSUE 15: JUNE 2026
CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large. The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the “Event” with a “Summary” as to possible implications.
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MONTHLY SUMMARY: Trend of instability in the Middle East continues. We opened April with potential for continued major fighting in the Middle East. We open June the same way we did May; we are in a CEASE FIRE. Last month we asked: How long will it last? What will be the outcome? Both remain unknowns, but the stakes for today and tomorrow are high. There are key aspects of the war that must be addressed. As there are still many events happening around the world, we will cover those (albeit BRIEFLY). As always, these events argue for a continued “strategic approach/awareness”. We should maintain awareness of the increased Russian attacks in the Ukraine-Russia War; the U.S. – China summit results and several other global events. There is a new Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) that bears watching.
U.S. and Israel War on Iran
Event: We open June on the cusp of a monumental 60-Day cease-fire agreement. After almost six weeks of sustained, and excellent, combat operations, the “temporary” cease-fire with Iran began on 8 April. As of this writing, we await the President’s (and Iran’s) decision on that ceasefire being formally extended for 60 days. The military operations against Iran were some of the most successful in U.S. military history – accomplishing the military objectives leadership established. The advantage at the beginning of the ceasefire was all to the U.S. and Israel. That has shifted, in our assessment.
Iran could not directly counter the U.S. or Israel military capabilities, so it asymmetrically turned this into an economic fight by attacking the oil infrastructure and civilian targets across the region AND CLOSING the Strait of Hormuz. That has created a significant pressure-point on the region and the U.S. in negotiations. We conducted at least 10 live interviews in May on the evolving and dynamic situation. Please refer to the CASIL Website for those details.
Where are we now? The 60-day Cease-fire deal is on the table. The President is contemplating agreeing. Iran remains intransigent and bellicose in its statements. Iran feels emboldened due to the successful pressure it has put on Gulf States and the global economy, the more it feels there will be enough pressure on the U.S. and Israel to reach a “deal”. We asked if it was working last month, and that answer appears to be yes. Will it continue to work? Everyone wants that answer.
Our Assessment of the current status:
- Iran has not been substantially attacked since 8 April. There have been some small defensive U.S. strikes, but those are limited and focused on a specific threat.
- Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz through intimidation and military threat. That is leverage for Iran in the negotiations.
- The U.S. Blockade has proven extremely successful in choking Iran’s economy.
- Iran’s leadership seems more entrenched and emboldened since it has not suffered any military pressure since early April. While many say the Supreme Leader is making the decisions (as done since 1979), it appears IRGC Chief Gen Vahidi is making the final decisions or strongly influencing them.
o NOTE: Vahidi is an extreme hardliner, IRGC veteran and leader and former IRGC-QF commander – before Qasem Soleimani.
o He’s not a compromising individual and will fight to the end.
- The Strait of Hormuz (SoH) has become a critical element in a “standoff” between the U.S. and Iran. Who controls it? How? What is the impact?
We stated last month this operation could last up to several weeks. In UPDATING our assessment – after five weeks of fighting before the ceasefire, we assess this could go another full month or two with combat operations needs to drive Iran sincerely to the negotiating table.
The BIG QUESTION surrounding the possible agreement. Is it a good deal?
We are not going to win friends with our assessment on this but read through the full thought process and think beyond the immediate issues and impacts (think strategically) and decide what legacy do we want to leave for our country, the region and our children.
WHAT LEGACY DO WE WANT TO LEAVE FOR OUR FUTURE?
We need to put the Islamic Regime in a position that it recognizes it is in a "no win position at this time". During offensive operations, we were getting close. After almost two-months of no offensive operations, this regime does not feel it is in a “no-win” status.
We outlined this last month, but deserves revisiting “What A Good Deal Looks Like”:
NOTE, we are not going over every minor detail one considers in negotiations but rather focusing on the major elements and strategic perspective.
1 . Eliminate nuclear weapons threat, (they are probably set back 5-10 years just based on the military success we have had). Iran is pushing back.
- NEED LOCATION,VERIFICATION and ENFORCEMENT mechanisms. Unimpeded, unannounced and freedom of movement
-- Extract all enriched Uranium. No need for peaceful purposes to have any uranium enriched beyond 3.5% – 5%.
2. Eliminate/degrade missile/drone threat and ability to offensively launch attacks on the reg
- Have degraded their capability, but they likely still have hundreds of missiles and drones (if not low 1,000’s)
- Their military industrial industry has been so severely degraded, it will take years to rebuild the capability.
3.. EndIran’s 47 years of destabilizing the Middle East and us.
- Must do this through neutralizing Iran’s proxies’ capabilities: Lebanese Hezbollah, Iranian-Backed Shia Militias (IBSM) in Iraq, Houthis and Hamas.
4. Stop the economic blackmail and future POTENTIAL blackmail and stranglehold Iran has on global energy market through its control of the SoH. Stop saying Iran will “open” the SoH. That wording, while simple sounding, gives the de-facto belief Iran has a “right” to “control” the SoH. They do NOT. It is INTERNATIONAL WATERS.
5. What about allowing Iran to re-arm? No one has mentioned this. We think that should be addressed as the Islamic Regime will seek to regain its military supremacy to be able to pressure the region once the U.S. and Israel stop attacking. Something needs to be put in place that limits of doesn’t allow that – with verification.
Worth REPEATING from last month’s CASIL Notes. We mentioned the need to think at the Strategic, Operational and Tactical Levels of War and Diplomacy. That is still critical – refer to that issue for details.
- We can win the war, but LOSE THE PEACE
REMAIN VIGILANT. The 29 April London terror attack on Jews remains fresh in our minds and serves as a reminder of the potential for attacks outside the Middle East. If combat operations begin again, the U.S. and its interests worldwide are not out of a threat. There are potential sleeper cells in the U.S., Europe and other Middle East countries. We must be EVER-VIGILANT!
SEE SOMETHING; SAY SOMETHING
As with all major crises, there are sides lining up to support or oppose. Our mission is not to tell you which way to lean as it is TOO LATE. That is an academic argument to make you feel better. If you want to argue the right/wrong of the fight, relegate that to history class, the living room or bar talk. The focus now should be on the best outcome for the United States and the safety of our forces – now and into the FUTURE.
We are in the fight and now we must push this to a conclusion that benefits our national interests, our security and the security for the region. You can also see that the vast ranging economic impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure/control by Iran is having. In our assessment through 40+ years in watching this challenge, that threat must be eliminated.
NOW ON TO THE REGULAR NEWSLETTER
PRC (China)
Event: China remains as a major strategic threat to the U.S. national security. During the summit, China had a chance to show its great diplomatic outreach and influence by pressuring Iran to a deal (especially since China needs Iranian oil). It did not. It did not because it does not have that global outreach (except economically) and does not care about the war as long as it drains U.S. fighting capabilities. You can believe China is studying the fight against Iran with front-row interest in see how we employ our warfighting capabilities.
The Trump-Xi summit came and went. The best outcome was that no harm was done and the two sides remain talking. There were several “deals” discussed and agreed to on technology, agriculture and other trade, but those will take time to have a positive impact (if they all follow-through).
Summary: Will all the deals come to fruition? Will PRC stop stealing U.S. intellectual property? The biggest sticking point, however, remains U.S. support to Taiwan. China gave its continued warning for the U.S. not to support Taiwan, not to supply them weapons and reiterate that Taiwan is China’s concern – not the U.S. Is our assessment, the U.S. waffled a little on Taiwan and should reiterate strong support for Taiwan or risk creating an opening for Chinese action. Remember, Xi has stated he wants Taiwan back under PRC control in 2027.
China is an excellent player of the “long-game”. But perhaps Xi is becoming impatient. Current assessments indicate China will attempt to take Taiwan by 2027. China could actually begin now as it has been rehearsing this military move for years and increasing the tempo of those rehearsals. The buildup in the SCS is China’s way of positioning itself to control the region should any conflict happen.
Ukraine – Russia – United States
Event: Russia INCREASED its attacks on Ukraine – especially in the second half of May. We keep seeing “one of the largest in the war’s history” only to be surpassed a few days later by another “one of the largest in the war’s history”. Russia’s annual Spring offensive has not proven successful. There are some new indicators Ukraine is regaining small pieces of territory in the East. In May, Ukraine was able to launch more Drone attacks into Russia. Therefore, Russia is doing all it knows – increasing missile (including its newest hypersonic missile) and drone attacks across all elements of Ukrainian infrastructure. We again urge you to read the past several months’ CASIL Notes to get full awareness of the situation.
Summary: Putin is a master manipulator. He will tell you what you want to hear, while all the time working any deal to his/Russia’s advantage. While Russia’s information campaign is unrivaled (except perhaps for China’s and Iran’s), the significant increase in attacks might signal some desperation on his part. It is too early to make that observation a final assessment, but it needs close watching. To stop the fighting, Russia must be made to feel pain – economically – and must face a threat – security related – before it will seriously consider sitting down at the peace table for any sincere talks.
Cuba
Event: Cuba’s internal crisis continues to worsen. During May, the U.S. deployed the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group to the Caribbean Sea as a show of force -- messaging. Also, just prior to that, the Trump administration announced the indictment of the former Cuban president Raúl Castro on murder charges (he is 94-years old).
There have also been additional talks between U.S. and Cuban officials – CIA director and SOUTHCOM Commander both met with Cuban officials at different times during May. Cuba continues to face one of its largest and most damaging economic and energy crises since the Communist takeover in 1959. The economic collapse has been happening in Cuba for decades, but it has been propped up by other authoritarian regimes (Russia, China, Venezuela, etc…) and “just getting by”. Having to stand on its own, allows the true fallacies of Communist rule to show through.
Summary: While there have been talks, the Communist regime in Cuba is not ready to throw in the towel. There will have to be more suffering for the Cuban people or some form of popular pressure (always hard in an authoritarian country) to cause change. For the first time since 1959, the Cuban people have an opportunity to change their government from an authoritarian and Communist controlled one, to one based on democracy and true openness. The U.S. will continue to apply pressure to help promote that internal change as it is important (Number one National Security Strategy Objective is the Western Hemisphere) to have economically prosperous and cooperative countries in our hemisphere while simultaneously reducing adversary encroachment. Change could come soon – within a few weeks or months. The challenge is will that change be smooth or have implosive and explosive catastrophic effects as the regime heads toward collapse.
NIGERIA – ISIS
EVENT: In Mid-May, the U.S. conducted joint military operations in Nigeria. The strikes killed almost 200 ISIS fighters. Of importance, the U.S. strikes also killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki on May 16. He was ISIS’ number 2 global leader. That is a significant success. Refer to December and January CASIL Notes for background on Islamic extremists in Nigeria.
SUMMARY: We have written about the continued growth in Islamic extremist groups’ growing influence in Africa. This threat will continue to grow if those governments do not take lasting and coordinated efforts to stop the spread of radical Islamists in their countries. Remember, many nations (including the U.S.) ignored al-Queda’s (1990’s) and ISIS’ (2000’s) rise to power and influence thinking this was not their problem.
CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)
NEW IN
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – EBOLA Outbreak
Event. In mid-May, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an Ebola outbreak in the DRC a public health emergency of international concern. The WHO said the current strain of Ebola is caused by the Bundibugyo virus. There are no approved drugs or vaccines.There have been over 200 deaths and almost 1,000 cases – with some outside DRC into Uganda.
Summary. Most Ebola outbreaks are small, but the 2014-16 West Africa outbreak infected over 28,000 (over 11,000 died) – the largest ever outbreak of the disease. This spread must be contained before hundreds, if not thousands die. You can expect to see a multi-national effort to support stopping the spread of one of the deadliest viruses on earth. It does not help international efforts that there continues to be an insurgent war in the area.
MALI --- NEW Last Month
Event: On 25 April, Jihadist insurgent groups affiliated with al-Queda and ISIS conducted wide-scale attacks across Mali. They simultaneously attacked in several of Mali’s major cities in a bold and shocking series of brutal attacks. Those attacks continued for several days as Mali’s military struggled.
Summary: Just as the Nigeria summary states, we have written about the continued growth in Islamic extremist groups’ growing influence in Africa. We also touched on the fact that several African nations (Mali being one) chose Russia over the U.S. and France to militarily partner with to help stem the growing threat. This threat will continue to grow if those governments do not take lasting and coordinated efforts to stop the spread of radical Islamists in their countries. There will be more attacks like this. Remember, many nations (including the U.S.) ignored al-Queda’s (1990’s) and ISIS’ (2000’s) rise to power and influence thinking this was not their problem.
United Arab Emirates (UAE)
EVENT: At the end of April UAE announced it is withdrawing from OPEC. This was a surprising move – in the middle of the energy crisis of the Iranian War -- OR was it? This will give UAE a little more freedom to set its oil production threshold (the impact on the world market cannot yet be determined), it also establishes a bit more independence and autonomy for UAE. UAE has also suffered the most Iranian missile and drone attacks since the war began – more than even Israel.
SUMMARY: We take you back to the January/February CASIL Notes, and combine the tension then to the UAE OPEC move and there could be cause for concern. This CERTAINLY bears watching as this unusual tension is concerning to our overall Middle East strategy – and security – and could reshape Middle East dynamics that have been in place for decades – especially depending on how cease-fire talks between the U.S. and Iran proceed.
Israel- Hamas War
Event: In the latter half of May, the IDF killed two Hamas military leaders. The IDF eliminated Izz al-Din al-Haddad, the leader of Hamas’ military wing. Then, eleven days later, IDF killed his successor (Mohammed Ouda). In the last few days of May, PM Netanyahu directed the IDF to take over 70% of Gaza’s territory. That was up from their original 50% than was moved to 60%.
Summary: There will likely be “flare-ups” in fighting as several hundred Hamas fighters continue small attacks on IDF positions near/across the “Yellow line”. Israel is being proactive in its defense to the Hamas attacks and the fact that Hamas has still not agreed to all cease-fire terms for Phase 2.
Phase two is moving now. Two key elements are: 1) a transition to Palestinian rule for Gaza and the West Bank, and 2) Hamas fighters must lay down its arms and not be part of any future Gaza Strip government. This is the most extensive and best chance at a deal since Hamas started this war over two years ago. Hamas is not ready to relinquish control.
Actions in NATO and Europe.
Event: During the last couple of days in May, a Russian attack drone hit an apartment building in Romania – no deaths, but several injured. This underscores the dangers to neighboring countries in the Russia-Ukraine war (Romania, Hungary, Poland, etc…). Russia has no regard for airspace violations or safety of innocent civilians when it launches missiles and UAV/Drones against Ukraine.Back in September/October 2025 we commented, “…we haven’t seen this much air and naval activity in E. Europe and the Baltics since the old Soviet Union days – a playbook Putin knows well...”Well, Putin is still playing the game.
Summary: Russia will continue its reckless attacks against Ukraine and won’t care who is injured. It will also continue its “gray zone” warfare against European and NATO countries as it has for the past years. (Read previous CASIL Notes for background). Multiple NATO and European leadership meetings have, unfortunately, not stopped Russia’s behavior. Russia will continue to pressure those countries and continued UAV/Drone incursions in a desire to get them to stop supporting Ukraine and become complacent with Russia’s military activity.
CONTINUE TO WATCH
Pakistan-Afghanistan Continued Fighting
Event: Fighting escalated in March and continued in April and into May. There is still no resolution. See the past few CASIL NOTES for background.
Summary: Peace talks do not mean peace.This still requires watching as the fighting could escalate after the late-April border attacks.
North Korea.
The DPRK conducted more missile launches in May. Additionally, KJU displayed new missiles and new launchers in a continued show of force. This follows March’s major ICBM engine test and April missile launches. (NOTE: North Korea possesses 50-60 nuclear weapons [public record numbers]). The IC noted there are strong indications DPRK has increased production in its nuclear weapons program in recent weeks.
MOVED OUT
We are taking U.S. – Venezuela off the watch list. See previous editions for background.
We are taking Syria off the watch list. See previous editions for background. However, we will point out the recent discovery of Syrian chemical weapons not removed during the Obama Administration. During that time, intelligence told the policy makers they would never get all Syrian chemical weapons turned over after a last-minute decision not to attack them. Turns out he and his administration did not listen to intelligence.
SPECIAL NOTICE(S):
- CASIL would like to extend GOOD LUCK and GOD’S SPEED to all our forces fighting against Iran and protecting our freedoms around the globe. Your superior training and dedication are your own self-generated luck. That is your advantage. “Charlie Mike” and Semper Fidelis!
- On 6 June, it will be the 82d Anniversary of the D-Day landings in Normandy to mark the beginning of the end of Nazi Germany. This was the greatest generation – some gave all; all gave some
- On 25 June, it will be the 76th anniversary of when North Korea invaded South Korea in one of the major intelligence failures to anticipate military action. The subsequent war also brought witness to great U.S. military achievements.
EVENTS:
- UPCOMING EVENTS
o PODCAST LAUNCH – STRATEGIC AFFAIRS WITH MARK CHANDLER
First four Episodes are available now
More coming in June
- May was an extremely busy news month. I had several news interviews during April as events continue to evolve. We even added a new outlet, conducting several interviews with the News Nation anchors.
o 1 May With LiveNow from Fox on Iran
o 4 May With News Nation on Iran.
o 8 May With LiveNow from Fox on Iran
o 10 May With News Nation on the Iran.
o 12 May With News Nation on U.S. – China Summit
o 19 May With News Nation on Iran – (cnx last minute).
o 22 May With LiveNow from Fox on Iran.
o 22 May With News Nation on Iran (cnx last minute)
o 26 May with News Nation on Iran
o 26 May with “America at Night” on Iran.
o 29 May with LiveNow from Fox on Iran.
o 29 May with “America at Night” on Iran
- PUBLIC ENGAGEMENTS
Mark S. Chandler
SPECIAL NOTICE –
BOOK. “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”
- It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War. This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.
- It is available in e-book and paperback from Amazon.
Thank you to those who have purchased it, and your positive feedback is greatly appreciated.