CASIL Notes - June Newsletter
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CASIL NOTES
- COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE -
ISSUE 3: JUNE 2025
CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large. The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the Event with a brief summary as to possible implications.
MONTHLY SUMMARY: As June begins, we see many of the same events from April and May continuing - Middle East Turmoil, Ukraine War, and economic challenges in the U.S. and abroad. The Ukraine-Russia war and Iran de-nuclearization talks headline this month’s CASIL Notes. Many of the events that follow have direct U.S. involvement or could impact the U.S. in some manner in the near term.
Ukraine - Russia
Event: June was welcomed with a phenomenal Ukrainian military operation. Ukraine used attack UAVs/Drones to destroy several Russian long-range bombers as far away as 3,000 miles. I encourage you to find the details on this operation as it was months in the planning and was a significant military success. It was also a blow to Russia’s – and especially Putin’s – ego as the Russian military did not detect nor stop this attack. Russia has maintained a steady – and even increased – military pressure on Ukraine. That will continue, but I expect a significant military attack in the coming days in retribution to Ukraine’s successful operation. The U.S. hasn’t gained any traction on a cease-fire deal. If there is to be one (which does not look likely soon), it will – without a doubt – be more in Russia’s favor, or Russia (Putin) will not agree.
Summary: Putin is a master manipulator. He will tell you what you want to hear, while all the time working any deal to his/Russia’s advantage. History proves he cannot be trusted. In his phone call with President Trump on 4 June, he alluded to retribution for Ukraine’s attack. However, no one seems to be calling out the fact that Ukraine’s attack is/was retribution for Russia’s original invasion and its continued attacks. That just illustrates Putin’s work at manipulating the narrative.
I will reiterate this statement from May’s Newsletter: A peace deal without security guarantees for Ukraine will only embolden Putin. The outcome will likely be future Russian attacks and not limited to Ukraine. Those are key concerns for the European countries especially those in Eastern and Northern Europe - closest to Russian aggression. History, while not a blueprint for the future, is a good forecaster of Russia’s future aggressive behavior.
Iran Nuclear Talks
Event: The U.S. and Iran held over five rounds of nuclear weapons program talks since they began in April. They are to hold more in June. We still believe there has been progress just by the very nature the talks are continuing. The hard discussions about what exactly the Iranians will be allowed to maintain are in the early stages and that is where the deal will be made – or fail. There continues to be conflicting messages coming from U.S. representatives and the White House over how much enriching uranium Iran will be allowed, so the U.S. needs to stand firm on one position. The best for all would be close to “What A Good Deal Looks Like” (see below). There are also more reports Israel is preparing to conduct a military strike on Iran’s nuclear program. If there isn’t a “good deal”, we believe Israel will act out of self-defense/preservation.
Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program: Please see the Special Edition Newsletter we published in mid-April on this issue. That Special Edition Newsletter contains key details on Iran’s nuclear weapons program and also set up “What A “Good Deal Looks Like”.
Summary: Washington has threatened military action to end Iran’s nuclear weapons program if Iran does not stop it voluntarily. Iran says it will not give up its nuclear weapons program (which it also simultaneously denies having). Those positions create an obvious impasse. The next few weeks will determine this issue’s trajectory for the next several months.
Israel- Hamas War
Event: The continued fighting. May ended pretty much the same as at the end of April – a flurry of activity revolving around a possible new cease-fire. Negotiators from Israel and Hamas were talking with mediators over a potential deal. The basics were Israel wanted Hamas to release 10 hostages for a seventy day cease fire and removing all IDF forces. The main sticking point: Hamas refuses to disarm – that is a key Israeli demand. This equates to no deal. Israel will increase its military operational tempo and begin to control more areas of Gaza in the coming weeks. The humanitarian crisis created with Israel’s new military pressure grew worse in May, but there are new U.S.-led efforts (with Israel providing overwatch security) to get humanitarian supplies to the civilians. Hamas continues to try and block or slow that relief.
We want to offer a cautionary note regarding media coverage. Twice in the last two weeks of May, most of the media ran stories about thousands of starving/dying children and tens of civilians killed in Israeli attacks. Those were NOT TRUE and were later (days later) retracted. While we acknowledge there is a crisis in Gaza, we urge everyone to be critical of following dramatic, and unsubstantiated media claims. Did for the facts.
Summary: Negotiations may continue; the fighting will. Hamas continues to use the hostages as a strong emotional bargaining chip against Israel. Israel continues to use military force to push Hamas to the negotiating table. Israel’s continued military pressure is having a major negative effect on Hamas, but it still not enough to force Hamas to fully surrender. Unfortunately, Hamas is willing to suffer even more – and make the Palestinian people suffer – before it will agree to a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Israel will continue its military campaign with its latest stated objective to control 75% of Gaza to eliminate Hamas.
PRC (China)
Event: We are keeping PRC-Philippines on our alert radar. China continued its assertive activity directed against the Philippines in the contested South China Sea (SCS). There were reports (we have not independently confirmed at this time) that the PRC deployed more long-range bombers to some of its SCS outposts. This would be a follow-on to its April SCS military deployments/show of force and messaging to the U.S. and the Philippines.
Summary: With everything else happening in the world (Ukraine and the Middle East), China has been able to almost fly under the radar. We are seeing increased Chinese messaging both against U.S. and our allies in the region. We expect this trend to continue in the coming months. We still estimate the PRC will use some strong-arm naval assets against the Philippines or other SCS claimants.
India-Pakistan
Event: The cease-fire brokered by the U.S. in early May has held. These two have fought four major wars since 1947. Tensions run high during normal times. Tensions remain high between these two, and thus we will keep a close eye on this region for this month’s Casil Notes. Refer to last month’s Newsletter for details.
Summary: The major concern – beyond the expected impact of a war – is that these two nations possess nuclear weapons. Any fighting that escalates between the two has always been accompanied with the concern of nuclear escalation.
North Korea (DPRK)
Event: Like China, the DPRK has been trying to fly under the radar. However, the DPRK leader, Kim Jong-Un (KJU), cannot go too long without letting everyone know he is active and someone to whom attention should be given. During May, DPRK launched a new combat ship (its second in as many months). However, it capsized next to the pier. This was a great embarrassment to the KJU regime. Heads will roll (literally) in the DPRK shipbuilding and military establishment – and likely already have.
Summary: We will keep North Korea on our higher alert radar for this month. DPRK has had a few missile launches in 2025 as messaging to the U.S. and South Korea, but not at levels it conducted in past years. DPRK also continues to support Russia with troops and equipment in the Ukraine war in exchange for money and technological support. I assess we will see DPRK increase its military messaging in the coming weeks or months with missile launches up to and including an ICBM test.
United States’ Tariffs
Event: Tariffs continue to be a major discussion point between the U.S. and its trading partners. This will continue. There was a brief respite (reduction in tariffs) between the U.S. and the PRC, but that lasted only a few days before both sides accused the other of basically unfair trade practices.
Summary: While there are unfair trade balances, the impact of a spiraling tariff war has the potential to have negative diplomatic and economic effects. More trade negotiations need to occur, and deals made, to avoid a cascading negative effect on the U.S. and global economy. The biggest challenge (based on sheer import and dollar amounts) will be discussions with China. Stay alert to how they COULD affect you both individually and professionally/corporately.
CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)
- U.S. – Middle East Relations.
o President Trump’s visit in May to the Middle East resulted in significant trade and financial agreements. We must see if any significant diplomatic agreements will follow in the near future. See Syria below for an update.
- U.S. Attacks on Houthi Rebels in Yemen.
o The U.S. declared it would stop attacks on the Houthis in early May, and it has.
o Israel conducted two major attacks on the Houthis in May after the Houthis continued firing ballistic missiles against Israel. We expect to see more of the same – Houthis fire missiles and Israel attacks the Houthis.
- Internal Syrian instability during new government formation.
o This continues as an unresolved issue. Sectarian fighting continues.
o The BIG NEWS is that President Trump agreed to re-establish relations with Syria that were cut off during the Syrian civil war. This is a significant move. It is also a positive strategic move to gain better influence in this region and in a country that could eventually help the U.S.
o June will see a further drawdown of U.S. forces in Syria and a reduction is forward operating locations inside the country.
o Do not forget ISIS is alive and well and still operating there, however.
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SPECIAL NOTICE –
- June 6th is the 81st Anniversary of D-Day. That was the invasion of mainland Europe that eventually led to Nazi Germany’s defeat. It was a terrible battle and long day during which thousands of U.S. and Allied military died on those beaches to create a foothold.
o Take a moment to remember their sacrifice for freedom
Mark S. Chandler