CASIL Notes - May Newsletter
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CASIL NOTES
- COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –
ISSUE 1: MAY 2025
CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large. The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the Event with a brief summary as to possible implications.
MONTHLY SUMMARY: As May begins, we see many of the same events from April continuing - Middle East Turmoil, Ukraine War, turmoil on the African continent, economic challenges in the U.S. and abroad. NEWLY developing situation is on the Asian sub-continent and potential fighting between India and Pakistan (that’s why we are delayed in this month’s edition). Many of the events that follow have direct U.S. involvement or could impact the U.S. in some manner in the near term.
India-Pakistan
Event: In late April, a terrorist attack in the Indian-controlled Kashmir area killed at least 26 people. India says Pakistan was behind the attack – a claim Pakistan denies. Historically, Pakistan has supported terrorists attacks that have taken place in Kashmir and in India and this had the trademarks of those attacks. There is concern this incident could lead to war. These two have fought four major wars since 1947. Tensions run high during normal times.
Summary: As the month began, there were indications India is preparing some military response against Pakistan for the terrorist attack. Late on 6 May and early 7 May, India conducted “retaliatory” air and missile strikes on nine locations inside Pakistan (killing 26; wounding 46), hitting three terror groups’ locations and infrastructures. Pakistan responded with artillery fire into villages along the border (killing 10; wounding 32). War between the two nations would be highly disruptive on the Asian sub-continent and beyond. Many nations (the U.S. included) are working the diplomatic channels extremely hard at this writing to prevent escalation. The major concern – beyond the expected impact of a war – is that these two nations possess nuclear weapons. Any fighting that escalates between the two has always been accompanied with the concern of nuclear escalation.
Israel- Hamas War
Event: The possibility of a Cease-fire or continued fighting. At the end of April, there was a flurry of activity revolving around a possible new cease-fire. Negotiators from Israel and Hamas were talking with mediators over a potential deal. The basics were that Hamas would agree to a five-year “truce” from Israel in exchange for the release of all remaining hostages (and a requisite number of Palestinian prisoners). The main sticking point: Hamas refuses to disarm – that is a key Israeli demand. This equates to no deal. Israel will increase its military operational tempo and begin to control more areas of Gaza in the coming weeks.
Summary: Negotiations may continue; the fighting will. Hamas continues to use the hostages as a strong emotional bargaining chip against Israel. Israel continues to use military force to push Hamas to the negotiating table. During the original cease-fire that ended prematurely on 2 March, Hamas used the cease-fire to reconstitute its forces - that will remain the case in any cease-fire in which Hamas does not disarm. Israel’s continued military pressure is having an effect on Hamas, but is it enough to force Hamas to fully surrender? May will determine Hamas’s sincerity in reaching any new cease-fire and releasing the hostages. Meanwhile, Israel will continue its military campaign.
Ukraine - Russia
Event: War and Possible Peace Deal. The U.S. and Ukraine signed “The Minerals Deal” on 30 April. This benefits both the U.S. and Ukraine: in obtaining critical rare-earth minerals; funding for U.S. support; and needed strong economic ties to the U.S. for Ukraine that may equate to some partnership that keeps Russia from future attacks. Last month both sides were close to a Black Sea agreement – that deal failed within 24 hours. Russia has maintained a steady – and even increased – military pressure on Ukraine. That will continue. Any cease-fire (which does not look likely soon) will – without a doubt – be more in Russia’s favor, or Russia will not agree.
Summary: Putin is a master manipulator. He will smile and compliment you and tell you what you want to hear, while all the time working any deal to his/Russia’s advantage. History proves he cannot be trusted. Recall, Russia is the aggressor in this war with unprovoked attacks on Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. The key points moving forward for ANY peace deal include 1) how much land Ukraine will be forced to forfeit, and 2) how to ensure future Ukrainian security to preclude Russia from reinitiating hostilities. Meanwhile, the U.S. is still looking for a “minerals deal” which will ensure the U.S. receives payment for the ~$190B in military aid (as it should).
A peace deal without security guarantees for Ukraine will only embolden Putin. The outcome will likely be future Russian attacks and not limited to Ukraine. Those are key concerns for the European countries especially those in Eastern and Northern Europe - closest to Russian aggression. History, while not a blueprint for the future, is a good forecaster of Russia’s future aggressive behavior.
Iran Nuclear Talks
Event: The U.S. and Iran held three rounds of nuclear weapons program talks in April. They are to hold more in May. The talks for 3 May were postponed, but not due to any disagreements. Both sides are working to reschedule and continue the talks. There has been progress just by the very nature the talks are continuing. The hard discussions about what exactly the Iranians will be allowed to maintain have yet to occur and that is where the deal will be made – or fail. There have been conflicting messages coming from U.S. representatives, so the U.S. needs to stand firm on one position – the best for all would be close to “What A Good Deal Looks Like” (see below).
Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program: Please see the Special Edition Newsletter we published in mid-April on this issue. That Special Edition Newsletter contains key details on Iran’s nuclear weapons program and also set up “What A “Good Deal Looks Like”.
Summary: Washington has threatened military action to end Iran’s nuclear weapons program if Iran does not stop it voluntarily. Iran says it will not give up its nuclear weapons program (which it also simultaneously denies having). Those positions create an obvious impasse. The next few weeks will determine this issue’s trajectory for the next several months.
PRC (China)
Event: We reported back in late March; China had deployed two H-6 long-range strategic bombers into the contested South China Sea (SCS) as a show of force and messaging to the U.S. and the Philippines. In late April, China continued its campaign to pressure its neighbors in the SCS. This time, it is over a place named “Sandy Cay”. Essentially, Sandy Clay is a few hundred yards long and wide (at low tide) but is one of the many small islets in the SCS that has strategic sovereignty implications. In mid-April, China deployed a small survey team to Sandy Cay to “claim” the rocky shoal in the name of China. A few days later, the Philippines did the same.
Summary: With everything else happening in the world (Ukraine and the Middle East), China has been able to almost fly under the radar. We are seeing increased Chinese messaging both against U.S. and our allies in the region. We expect this trend to continue in the coming months. We would also not be surprised to see some strong-arm use of PRC naval assets against the Philippines or other SCS claimants.
North Korea (DPRK)
Event: Like China, the DPRK has been trying to fly under the radar. However, the DPRK leader, Kim Jong-Un (KJU), cannot go too long without letting everyone know he is active and someone to whom attention should be given. During April, DPRK launched a new navy combatant ship. While that single ship is not a major threat, it does signal a continuing DPRK capability to produce new weapons.
Summary: We will keep North Korea on our higher alert radar for this month. DPRK has had a few missile launches in 2025 as messaging to the U.S. and South Korea, but not at levels it conducted in past years. DPRK also continues to support Russia with troops and equipment in the Ukraine war in exchange for money and technological support. I assess we will see DPRK increase its military messaging in the coming weeks or months with missile launches up to and including an ICBM test.
United States’ Tariffs
Event: Tariffs began going more in effect throughout April. So did countries wanting to discuss new trade deals with the U.S. Expect major new deals to be announced in May. The U.S. and Britain should have a new announcement on or about 8 May.
Summary: While there are unfair trade balances, the impact of a spiraling tariff war has the potential to have negative diplomatic and economic effects. More trade negotiations need to occur, and deals made, to avoid a cascading negative effect on the U.S. and global economy. The biggest challenge (based on sheer import and dollar amounts) will be discussions with China. Stay alert to how they COULD affect you both individually and professionally/corporately.
CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)
- U.S. – Middle East Relations.
o President Trump travelling to a Middle East “summit” in May. I doubt he would travel to such a gathering and not have a major announcement. Follow these developments throughout the month as they could affect the Nuclear Weapons talks, Israel-Hamas War, Syria, and future Arab-Israeli and U.S. – Arab relations.
- U.S. Attacks on Houthi Rebels in Yemen.
o The U.S. declared it would stop attacks on the Houthis because the Houthis said it would stop attacks on U.S. ships and commercial shipping. This does not mean an end to Houthi attacks. The Houthis said they would still attack Israel. We will have to see how long this “cease-fire” lasts. We do not give it a high percentage chance to last long.
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- Internal Syrian instability during new government formation.
o This is an unresolved issue. There has been more sectarian fighting in recent weeks. Israel has attacked some factions that threaten non-Islamic groups and Israeli security.
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- Canadian elections and impact on U.S. – Canadian relations.
o New Canadian Prime Minister met with President Trump to smooth over relations and work on trade issues.
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- Sudan Civil War
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- Egyptian military build-up in the Sinai Peninsula
o Continue to monitor this issue as the Israel-Hamas War drags.
SPECIAL THANKS –
- V E Day. To the “Greatest Generation”………..THANK YOU!
- Memorial Day - Honor All Those Who Served America and Gave Their All
Mark S. Chandler