CASIL NOTES - March Newsletter
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CASIL NOTES
- COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –
ISSUE 12: MARCH 2026
CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large. The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the “Event” with a “Summary” as to possible implications.
MONTHLY SUMMARY: We open March with major fighting in the Middle East. Last month, we asked “What’s Next?”, and the answer is happening now. The United States and Israel initiated airstrikes against Iran on 28 February. While this is likely the beginning of the largest U.S. military operation in the Middle East since fighting ISIS in the early 2010’s and our invasion of Iraq in 2003, there are still many events happening around the world. Many of the events/issues we highlighted throughout the past several months, continue. This argues for a continued “strategic approach/awareness”. We should maintain awareness of the Ukraine-Russia War and fledgling talks (no progress); the Israel-Hamas cease-fire moving into the long-awaited Cease-fire, Phase 2, China’s continued assertiveness and new conflicts breaking out in our areas of interests.
This month’s Newsletter is an abbreviated version as we continue to respond to multiple requests for input on the current Middle East crisis. Let’s get started
United States and Israel Attack Iran
Event: As assessed in last month’s newsletter, the fighting would begin in the near future. On 28 February, the U.S. and Israel began attacks across Iran. They focused on taking out key leadership targets. The Iranian Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) was killed in the first wave of strikes. Also killed were several senior Iranian leaders including heads of the IRGC and the Iranian military. Other strikes focused on the missile and drone locations to help reduce the Iranian counterattacks.
FOR CURRENT AND MORE DETAILED information, please refer to the Special Edition Newsletter we published on 18 February. Also refer to current news interviews (28 Feb and 1 March). For background to this crisis, please review the past few months’ CASIL Notes.
This operation will (and should), to achieve its objectives, last several days or weeks.
The attacks began after giving Iran a chance to sincerely negotiate. It refused to stop its uranium enrichment (which for Iran was about getting weapons grade uranium). Once the U.S. realized Iran was not going to negotiate in good faith, military action was the only recourse. And diplomacy just sometimes will not work – especially with a regime like Iran’s.
Summary: Dangerous times ahead. This will continue to be increased attacks and counter-attacks in the coming days to weeks. As a veteran of two wars in this region, I would prefer to see a diplomatic solution – always will prefer that. This operation WILL LAST for days if not weeks. A few notes on possible Iranian retaliation:
- Iran launched at least 25 different waves of missile and drone attacks on 28 Feb. against U.S. bases in Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, Iraq and of course, multiple waves of missile and drone attacks on Israel.
- Iran has threatened even more and more devastating attacks on U.S. bases across the Middle East and says it will close the Straight of Hormuz (~20% world’s oil transits here).
- Look for the Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) to try attacks against Israel – missile and small unit infiltrations and also against U.S. interests.
- You also have the Houthis who will try missile or drone attacks against U.S. and Israeli positions AND ALSO try to negatively impact the Bab al-Mandeb straight and Red Sea transit areas.
- The U.S. and its interests worldwide are not out of a threat. There are potential sleeper cells in the U.S., Europe and other Middle East countries. We must be EVER-VIGILANT!
§ SEE SOMETHING; SAY SOMETHING
PRC (China)
Event: China moved up primarily due to internal concerns. Xi continues his leadership purges. As we said, this is MAJOR MOVE. Xi has dangerously consolidated power and removed any potential nay-sayers to his aggression.
Summary: China is an excellent player of the “long-game”. Perhaps Xi is becoming impatient. Current assessments indicate China will attempt to take Taiwan by 2027. China could actually begin now as it has been rehearsing this military move for years and increasing the tempo of those rehearsals. Any attack on
Ukraine – Russia – United States
Event: As we have been writing, Russia would continue its relentless attacks on Ukraine – it has. Hope for peace elevated during January remains a fleeting hope. as a NEW Peace Proposal was presented and discussed in a tri-lateral (U.S. – Ukraine – Russia) meeting in late January. TO take advantage of terrible Winter weather and punish Ukrainian people, Russia increased its attacks on civilians and Ukrainian targets – again showing its true colors. We again urge you to read the past several months’ CASIL Notes to get full awareness of the situation. The latest sticking points include how much land Ukraine will be forced to surrender, who controls the land and Western security guarantees against future Russian aggression.
Summary: Putin is a master manipulator. He will tell you what you want to hear, while all the time working any deal to his/Russia’s advantage. To stop the fighting, Russia must be made to feel pain – economically – and must face a threat – security related – before it will seriously consider sitting down at the peace table for any sincere talks.
We reiterate this statement: A peace deal without concrete and committed security guarantees will only embolden Putin. The outcome will likely be future Russian attacks but not limited to Ukraine. Those are key security concerns for the European countries especially those in Eastern and Northern Europe - closest to Russian aggression. The West cannot afford to repeat the Neville Chamberlain disastrous agreement with Hitler on the eve of WWII, and the West must honor its commitment to Ukraine unlike it did with the 1994 security guarantee against Russian aggression. History, while not a blueprint for the future, is a good forecaster of Russia’s future aggressive desires and behavior.
Israel- Hamas War
Event: The cease-fire that went into effect in early October, can perhaps now move solidly to Phase Two. There will likely be “flare-ups” in fighting as several hundred Hamas fighters continue small-unit attacks on IDF positions near/across the “Yellow line”. Hamas has not said it will cease to fight on, nor has it finally agreed to fully disarm and leave Gaza governance – key Phase 2 components. While we can say the fighting is over, it is likely the threat on Israel from Hamas (and others) is not.
Summary: Phase two is moving now. Two key elements are: 1) a transition to Palestinian rule for Gaza and the West Bank, and 2) Hamas fighters must lay down its arms and not be part of any future Gaza Strip government. This is the most extensive and best chance at a deal since Hamas started this war over two years ago. Hamas is not ready to relinquish control. The new fighting with Hamas’ ally, Iran, may create some new attacks by remaining Hamas fighters.
Syria:
Event: At the risk of being a broken record, Syria is not yet a stable government or country even 14 months after the overthrow of the Assad regime. Challenges remain and struggle will continue. January saw the struggle play out on the battlefield as the Syrian military attacked the SDF – a coalition of Syrian-Kurds who were our staunchest ally during the campaign against ISIS.
Summary: As we have reported, Syria is a long way from a cohesive and peaceful transition and government/nation. It is also not cohesive. This new fighting illustrates just one aspect of how Syria is not a stable or secure country. We need a secure Syria and stable government. That will take time. The discussions and fledgling agreements from the November Sharaa visit will have to play out soon and the new government will need to fight ISIS and engage in positive diplomacy and relations toward Israel and against Iran. Russia obviously still desires influence in Syria. A stable Syria with reduced Iranian and Russian (and Turkey) influence will benefit the U.S. interests in the region. Time will tell how successful this new U.S.-Syrian relationship will be. (See December’s CASIL NOTES for more background.) We must maintain our diplomatic and military vigilance.
CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)
NEW IN
Pakistan-Afghanistan New Fighting
Event: The Afghanistan-Pakistan Border dispute was on its way out of “Alerts” last month. Near the end of February, significant NEW fighting broke out along the border and Pakistan conducted airstrikes against Afghanistan in Kabul. There is still no resolution. Recall fighting flared up in December between the two countries after Afghan-based terrorists (TTP) attacked inside Pakistan. Pakistan accused Afghanistan of support to TTP (which is tacitly does, by the way; a claim Afghanistan’s Taliban leadership denies). The two countries agreed to talks. Those talks have failed to result in any agreement.
Summary: This requires watching as the fighting could spread as India has tacit support for Afghanistan. With the instability now in Iran, we could see a regional downward spiral – that would be worst case.
Moved from the main section: NATO Defensive Moves
Event: The major comment here is the security guarantees by several European countries – Britain and France among them. Russia will continue its “gray zone” warfare against European and NATO countries as it has for the past year. (Read previous CASIL Notes for background). This activity is all an off-shoot from the Ukraine-Russian war.
Summary: The multiple NATO and European leadership meetings will, unfortunately, not stop Russia’s behavior. Perhaps NATO will be more prepared for the coming incursions, but Russia will continue to pressure those countries (as illustrated with the rail-line sabotage) and continued UAV/Drone incursions in a desire to get them to stop supporting Ukraine and become complacent with Russia’s military activity.
U.S. – Russia Nuclear Weapons Treaty Talks:
Recently the New Start Treaty limiting nuclear weapons between the U.S. and Russia expired. Initially, the two sides made statements accusing the other of not wanting to talk. Since then, they began limited discussions to extend the treaty or negotiate an entirely new one – this WILL TAKE TIME.
- Two points on this: 1) Verification is critical as Russia violated the last treaty on a continual basis. 2) China is NOT PART of any nuclear limitation treaty. This is serious as China is expanding its nuclear arsenal with NO LIMITS whatsoever – and NO INTEREST in joining any treaty.
Moved from the main section: U.S. - Venezuela:
Event: We must continue to follow this region as U.S. strike against narco-traffickers continue – and will. We also need to monitor the evolving relationship with the new leaders, and if they will transition to a truly democratic government. The U.S. chose to leave in place the remaining members of the illegal regime. There must be some order and institutions left intact to continue daily governmental functions for daily life.
Summary: We are more publicly working to open a more cordial relationship and perhaps create an economic opening for U.S. oil companies and other markets. As a major side benefit, the U.S. is now able to block further encroachment in our sphere of influence by bad actors from Cuba, China, Russia and Iran ( a stated objective in the new National Security Strategy). We are not finished with the complex Venezuelan situation as it will take months to reach a level of fully cooperative interaction.
Moved from main section: Follow-up to December U.S. Strikes on ISIS In Nigeria.
Event: New here is the U.S. sent in military training teams to help train the Nigerian military to combat ISIS, AQ and other extremists. We have followed this issue for a couple of months. Recall that on Christmas day, the U.S. conducted missile strikes against ISIS locations in NW/N. Central Nigeria. At the time, CASIL assessed those singular strikes would likely not stop ISIS or al-Qaeda activity. They did not. In mid-January, there were additional attacks against some churches in Nigeria.
Summary: We repeat our previous assessment. While December’s attack was notable, it is unlikely to deter ISIS branches in Nigeria to stop their attacks. They have been active for over 14 years. It is vital to understand that Islamic extremism is growing across West African countries. There are ISIS and al-Qaeda groups both conducting attacks against civilians and governments. This is a strategic concern for the U.S. as we failed to stop a similar growing al-Qaeda threat in the 1990’s that helped them go relatively unscathed until they attacked us on September 11.
Possible Iran influence in…Iraqi Government Elections. This was in continue to Watch, but new information warrants bringing it to your attention. Iraq held government elections in early November. Former PM Maliki looks to lead Iraq again. The U.S. had challenges dealing with him the last time and he seems more in-line with accepting Iranian influences. This could have a potential dangerous shift in U.S.-Iraqi relations.
CONTINUE TO WATCH
- Lebanon and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH). This stays under the continue to watch based on possible retaliation for the U.S. – Israel attacks on Iran.
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- NEW Red Sea THREAT….. After U.S. attacks on Iran……Houthis – We assessed the Houthis would possibly attack U.S. or international shipping in the Red Sea or Bad al-Mandeb Strait. Well, the Houthis came out and publicly stated they would do so if the U.S. attacked. Stay vigilant.
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- North Korea. Two missile launches in the last week in January in response to U.S. Defense representative visit to South Korea. The DPRK is signaling the best way it knows how, its displeasure with the close U.S.-ROK-Japan ties. Expect similar activity in the near future. (NOTE: North Korea possesses 50-60 nuclear weapons [public record numbers]).
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- Thailand-Cambodia border fighting. This is fluctuated over the past two months. We should have left this in CASIL Alerts. Major fighting erupted along the border for several days in December. This illustrates 1) how fragile a cease-fire can be and 2) how such a historical border dispute can simmer and escalate with little warning. It seems now, a new ceasefire has been negotiated. But, we assess this is still a fragile situation that could explode at any time.
MOVED OUT
- FIGHTING in the Balochistan (Baluchistan) province in Pakistan in the last days of January. For reference, the Balochistan region also goes into Iran's southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan province and borders Afghanistan. This is a historically contentious region as the Balochs are fighting for self-governance from Pakistan (and Iran). During the latest round, hundreds of Baloch fighters, civilians and Pakistani security forces have been killed.
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- Sudan Civil War. Fighting continues with advances being made by both sides – that’s what war is. We said we would removed it after one more month, and that time is now. Recall also there have been new talks for peace, but nothing is finalized. IT is worthy to remind you that Russia is working a NEW DEAL for a PORT ACCESS with Sudan on the strategic Red Sea.
SPECIAL NOTICE(S):
- U.S. budget issues. We are under a limited government shutdown that primarily negatively affects DHS (TSA, Border Patrol, etc…) As we got to print, no agreement. However, if no budget agreement is reached, this could have negative effect on national security we mentioned in October’s and November’s Newsletters. MORE IMPORTANTLY, with potential terrorists’ threat from Iran, now is NOT A GOOD TIME TO CUT FUNDING
- CASIL would like to extend GOOD LUCK and GOD’S SPEED to all our forces fighting against Iran and protecting our freedoms around the globe. Your superior training and dedication are your own self-generated luck. That is your advantage. “Charlie Mike” and Semper Fidelis!
EVENTS:
- February was a busy news month. I had several news interviews during January as events continue to evolve.
o 4 Feb With LiveNow from Fox on Iran.
o 9 Feb With Austin Denean of Sinclair Broadcast Service, The National Desk on the Iranian crisis and what the U.S. considerations and actions should consider.
o 21 Feb With LiveNow from Fox on the Iranian crisis and nuclear talks’ status.
o 28 Feb with LiveNow from Fox on the U.S. – Israel attacks on Iran.
UPCOMING EVENTS
o Possible Public Round-table on the U.S.- Iran situation. No further information.
Mark S. Chandler
SPECIAL NOTICE –
BOOK. “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”.
- It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War. This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.
- It is available in e-book and paperback from Amazon.
Thank you to those who have purchased it, and your positive feedback is greatly appreciated.