CASIL NOTES - October Newsletter

CASIL NOTES

 - COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –

ISSUE 7: OCTOBER 2025

CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large.  The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the “Event” with a “Summary” as to possible implications.

SPECIAL NOTICE –

NEW BOOK.   I have published a book: “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”

-        It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War.  This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.

-        I walk the reader through the interviews, but with the perspective of my 37 years as an intelligence professional.

-        It is available in e-book and paperback from Amazon.

Thank you to those who have purchased it, and your positive feedback is greatly appreciated.

MONTHLY SUMMARY: As October begins, we are reminded to remain strategically focused. Many of the event/issues we highlighted at the beginning of September took place or continued. We are no closer to resolving the Ukraine-Russia War nor the Israel-Hamas War than we were at the beginning of August. We are seeing NATO take prudent defensive military moves as there is increased concern over Russian aggression in Europe.  Things at the boiling point - Middle East Turmoil, Ukraine War.  China’s military showcase parade and diplomatic moves illustrate a concerning assertiveness in the region and world.  While we do not generally mention domestic U.S. politics, we want to point out the month begins with a U.S. government shutdown.  Only essential personnel are exempted (without immediate pay, by the way).  This means for national security the military is at full strength, but the intelligence services are operating at a reduced manpower capacity.

This month’s Newsletter is another rather long summary of global events. Let’s get started

NATO Defensive Moves

Event:  This is a NEW entry and deserves its own section this month. Last month we alerted you to the increased activity in the Baltic Sea and Baltic states.  Now, that activity has increased.  As an off-shoot from the Ukraine-Russian war, the second half of September saw NATO being forced to implement multiple defensive moves to be prepared for further Russian aggression. We commented that we haven’t seen this much air and naval activity in E. Europe and the Baltics since the old Soviet Union days – a playbook Putin knows well.   Russia has steadily increased its military pressure against NATO’s Eastern flank through multiple violations of several countries’ sovereign airspace and coastal waters.  After multiple incursions, Poland finally shot down several Russian drones flying over Poland.  NATO’s Baltic Air Policing Force and some individual countries reacted to multiple Russian air incursions with ISR aircraft, drones and (in the most aggressive incident) MiG-31 fighters violated Estonian airspace.  The activity continues.

 Summary: There have been calls for, and meetings of, NATO countries to discuss Article IV consultations. Article IV basically means, NATO is growing more concerned over a particular issue – in this case Russian aggression. Several NATO countries have added additional defensive fighter aircraft to the Eastern flank and are taking more assertive moves to defend its airspace.   Unfortunately, this will not stop Russia’s behavior.  Perhaps NATO will be more prepared for the coming incursions, but Russia will continue to pressure those countries in the desire to get them to stop supporting Ukraine and become complacent with Russia’s military activity.

- NOTE: During September’s last week, two Russian TU-95 strategic nuclear-capable bombers flew into the U.S.’s Alaska ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone).  They were intercepted by USAF fighters. This is NOT an unusual occurrence and was fairly common-place during the Cold War.  However, this is a form of Russian military messaging to the U.S. to prove Russia still can threaten the U.S.   Combine this with Russia’s actions in Europe and we can see a holistic approach to Russian messaging.  In the past, the U.S. has responded with its own strategic bomber flights near Russia and it would not surprise us to see that in the near future. 

Ukraine – Russia – United States

Event:  As we keep addressing, Russia would continue its relentless attacks on Ukraine – it has. Since the Alaska summit, Russian attacks have increased and they have grown in size of numbers and breadth of targets.  Russia is NOT slowing down and this is an international message of defiance to the U.S., NATO and EU. We urge you to read this month’s CASIL Notes in conjunction with September’s to get a full awareness of the situation. Russia continues to push back at any real peace/ceasefire initiative every step of the way.  The result: no peace in Ukraine and no follow-up diplomatic initiative as Russian aggression is relentless. Russia is making incremental gains on the ground and will continue that push throughout the Fall. Since the Alaska meeting, Russia has conducted several of the largest missile and drone/UAV attacks since the war began – (over 800, 700 and 600 on separate occasions). Unfortunately, this level of fighting will continue as Russia desires to gain the military advantage before proceeding with any type of ceasefire negotiations.

CEASE-FIRE/PEACE: We continue to assess, that if there is to be one (which does not look likely soon), it will – without a doubt – be more in Russia’s favor, or Russia (Putin) will not agree. That is why you see the current Russian aggressive military operations.  EXPECT MORE to occur.

Summary: There was renewed public support for Ukraine by the U.S. Administration during UNGA, and that could be messaging to Putin or that could be true unabridged support for Ukraine.  As a reminder, Putin is a master manipulator. He will tell you what you want to hear, while all the time working any deal to his/Russia’s advantage. History proves he cannot be trusted. (Refer to June’s Newsletter for more.).  And, in the aftermath of the Alaska summit, history has been reinforced.

To stop the fighting, Russia must be made to feel pain – economically – and must face a threat – security related – before it will seriously consider sitting down at the peace table for any sincere talks.

I will also reiterate this statement:  A peace deal without security guarantees for Ukraine will only embolden Putin. The outcome will likely be future Russian attacks but not limited to Ukraine. Those are key concerns for the European countries especially those in Eastern and Northern Europe - closest to Russian aggression. History, while not a blueprint for the future, is a good forecaster of Russia’s future aggressive behavior.

 Trump-Xi Summit in ROK

Event:  President Trump and President Xi are scheduled to hold a bi-lateral summit in South Korea during October (details still being finalized between the two countries).  The public goal is to reach an agreement on the long-awaited TikTok sale.  Reminder that Tik Tok is ultimately a Chinese-controlled social media platform.  The long-held U.S. Government assessment is that all your personal data can be held ultimately by the Chinese Communist Party. (Note:  This is a factual and true assessment that all your personal data IS AVAILABLE to the CCP.) 

Summary:  While the meeting is to finalize and agree to the Tik Tok sale, there are underlying issues that are to be discussed.  The primary one involves the trade issues between the U.S. and China.  Both sides are far apart on trade agreements and tariff amounts. 

PRC (China)

Event: We  moved PRC up on our priority because we believed it would make a lot of news in September. Well, China did not disappoint. Its STRATEGIC MESSAGING delivered with the SCO, its grand military parade and the bi-lateral and tri-lateral meetings with Putin and KJU (N. Korea).

-  Do not forget China’s President Xi  meeting with Indian PM Modi at end of August and beginning of September (They met during the Shanghai Co-operation Organization [SCO]).  It was their first meeting in seven years and they promised to resume cooperation and some commercial air traffic.

o   Keep this development in mind as you read about the NEW sanctions the U.S. has levied on India because of trade with Russia.     

-  On 3 September, China held its annual military parade.  This was a massive display of military capabilities and weapons.  China showcased new hypersonic missiles, new ICBM variants, new stealth fighters, multiple attack drones (reported to be autonomously operating drones, but the jury is still out on that claim), a new carrier-based fighter (China is growing its aircraft carrier fleet).  As a reminder, China has the largest ground force (~2 million), largest air force, naval force and a massive missile force. Example were on full display in September.  

-  Simply based on the guest list, the Beijing military parade was a significant show of solidarity between three of the United States’ key adversaries.  This is their collective way of showing they are not intimidated by the U.S.

-  Newly release intelligence is concerning in that it revealed China’s continued and extensive military buildup along its Eastern and Southern coasts.  These are the area from which China will likely stage to fight any battle against Taiwan or other Western Pacific nations. 

Summary:  With everything else happening in the world (Ukraine and the Middle East), China has finally decided to come up on the visible radar. China is an excellent player of the “long-game” and this diplomatic show in early September has been planned and calculated for maximum impact and messaging.  But it is also not just an empty diplomatic message. China is signaling strength that counters the U.S. diplomatic strength.  We must maintain a strategic approach to the Chinese threat. We are seeing increased Chinese messaging both against U.S. (with trade talks in the background -- let’s not forget) and our allies in the region. We expect this trend to continue in the coming months.

Israel- Hamas War

Event: The fighting continues. Israel continued its major military campaign in Northern Gaza.  The purpose is to eliminate Hamas and Hamas’s sanctuary in the area. We continue to be in a complex military, political and diplomatic environment surrounding this war and the region.  

There was little progress in September for a ceasefire deal.  Israel took a BOLD move to attack Hamas negotiation leadership at their facility in Doha, Qatar. This violated Qatar’s sovereignty and created challenges for the U.S. diplomatic and military relationship with Qatar.  While not successful in killing the primary Hamas leader, Israel’s bold move sent a significant message to Hamas that Israel will take this fight to all Hamas levels – not just those Hamas continues to force the fight in Gaza. This strike also reinforces the new order in the Middle East in that it proves Israel will strike when and where it assesses it is required to carry out its national security objectives – and won’t wait to be hit first. Israel seems to operating on the old mantra, “If you know someone is coming to attack you, attack them first.”

BREAKING NEWS: During the last days in September the U.S. proposed (Israel accepted) a new cease-fire/peace proposal. The basics (it is a long proposal) are that fighting must stop immediately, all living and dead hostages Hamas holds must be released in 72 hours and Israel will withdraw its forces to previous combat lines.  There will be a transition to Palestinian rule for Gaza and the West Bank, and Hamas fighters must lay down its arms and not be part of any future Gaza Strip government. This is the most extensive and best chance at a deal since Hamas started this war two years ago.  The PIJ declined to accept the deal on 1 Oct.  Hamas has yet to respond and has until 3-4 Oct.  If Hamas does not agree to the deal, the U.S. said it will not push back on larger Israeli military operations against Hamas.  Again, the chance for peace lies in Hamas’s hands.  Will they accept it?    

Summary: Negotiations may start; the fighting will continue. Hamas continues to use the hostages as a strong emotional bargaining chip against Israel. Israel continues to use military force to push Hamas to the negotiating table. Israel’s continued military pressure is having a major negative effect on Hamas, but it still not enough to force Hamas to fully surrender. Unfortunately, Hamas remains emboldened with the international pressure being put on Israel, and Hamas is willing to suffer even more – and make the Palestinian people suffer – before it will agree to a ceasefire.  Israel will continue its military campaign.

 Houthis

Event: After their increased activity in July, the Houthis remained somewhat active in September. We were actually getting ready to move them to the “Alerts” section, even after they seemed to have “finished” retaliating for Israel’s attack on Houthi leadership in late August. However they conducted a successful Drone/UAV attack on Israel (Eilat in S. Israel) on 24 September.  While they have launched several missile and Drone attacks over two years, this was one of the most successful.  Several civilians were wounded in this attack. We can say with certainty that the Houthis do not have a UAV production capability and this serves as a brutal reminder, Iran backs, trains, and supplies the Houthis.

 Summary: Israel will retaliate for the Eilat attack. While not a significant military threat, as long as they continue to be resupplied by Iran and have the capability, the Houthis will continue their disruptive behavior and occasionally have catastrophic results.

Iran Nuclear Talks – Where are We?

Event: Everyone is waiting to see what Iran will do regarding its nuclear weapons program. (See the July, August and September CASIL Notes for details and background).

Summary: What is next? The world keeps looking for some message from Iran that it is willing to cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons.   There has been no progress in denuclearization talks.  During his UN General Assembly speech on 24 September, the Iranian president took a very belligerent approach to Israel and the U.S. and did not signal a desire to stop its nuclear weapons process.

Recall those “snap-back” sanctions recommended by the “E3” against Iran.  The clock is ticking, and Iran has made no real moves to comply with a denuclearization plan (ref the Iranian president’s speech at UNGA).  They were supposed to go into effect on 28 September.  As with all sanctions, we will have to wait and see how many countries comply to determine the sanctions’ effectiveness. Iran has key allies (Russia and China) who will likely circumvent the snap-back sanctions.

 NEGOTIATIONS – There still needs to be negotiations.  While it has been severely weakened, it has not stopped its belligerence and its ambitions to destabilize the region.  The April Special Edition Newsletter contains key details on Iran’s nuclear weapons program and sets up “What A “Good Deal Looks Like”. A holistic and complete deal requires those elements to be met. To confirm those elements, Iran must allow inspectors on the ground at all facilities for verification.  Time will tell, and the clock is ticking.

NOTE: Iranian Retaliation Still Possible: Refer to the last two CASIL Notes for details.

IF YOU SEE SOMETHING, SAY SOMETHING.

CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)

            NEW IN 

-   KSA – Pakistan Military Cooperation

o   In a surprising move, KSA and Pakistan signed a military cooperation agreement. This is significant in that it brings the two countries more closely aligned.  This formalizes their relationship.

o   While it will be a good relationship to counter Iran.  It could present challenges to how the U.S. approaches dealing with Pakistan.

o   This bears watching to see if this develops to any joint military training or exchanges.

o   Do not forget Pakistan is a nuclear weapons nation.   

-  Palestinian State Recognition

o   We cannot let this moth pass without mentioned the NEW recognition of the right of Palestinians to have statehood.  We had the UK, France and several other countries call for a recognition of a Palestinian State.  Four points:

§   1) This is not binding and is more of a political move to assuage domestic audiences and appear sympathetic to the Palestinians, and

§  2) You will not see a Palestinian state any time soon, and

§  3) This will not lead to a halt in the Israel-Hamas War, and 

§  4) This is a reward to Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel and for it continuing to prolong this war.    

- U.S. – Turkey Visit – What is the Outcome.

o   Turkish President Erdogan visited Washington on 25 Sep.  He was there to discuss relations between the U.S. and Turkey, the Israel-Hamas war, the Ukraine-Russian War, and military trade.

o   This is a complex relationship as Turkey is a NATO member, and international partner in the F-35 fighter program. HOWEVER, Turkey is also a Russian ally, and has entered into military trade with Russia and purchased (and received) advanced SAMs (surface to air missiles) from Russia.  Those missiles are 1) a threat to U.S. (and NATO) aircraft and the technology transfer threat from them to the F-35 is significant – which is why the U.S. suspended Turkey’s F-35 deliveries. 

o   Additionally, Turkey is a staunch Hamas supporter (and Israeli “enemy”) and has supported Hamas (hosting leadership, financiers, and fighters) since before Hamas attacked Israel. Also, Erdogan is a Muslim (nothing wrong with that), but he fancies himself a Muslim World leader and desires to grow his leadership role – despite what issues that causes with the West.

o   Finally, this is made even more complex by Turkey’s strategic geographic location opposite the Southern approaches to Russia and its access to the Black Sea. Turkey was a key ally during the Cold War as its strategic location proved vital against the USSR.

o   No formal agreements were reached, and it is unlikely Erdogan will do anything overtly supportive to U.S. policy – unless there is something that sweetens the pot for him.  It may take a few weeks to see the true outcome of those meetings.

-  Israel-Turkey Tension – A must watch

o   We are keeping this on the radar. At the very end of August Turkey (I’m not using the new spelling) ENDED all trade with Israel and CLOSED its AIRSPACE to Israeli civil air traffic. While these are not military moves, they do show vastly increased tension that has been building throughout the Israel-Hamas War (Turkey supports Hamas.)

o   There is tension over Turkey’s support for the new Syrian regime and pushback on Israel’s defensive-offensive operations inside Syria

-  Israel – Egypt:

o   For the second time in the past three months, Israel has formally raised a concern to the U.S. about Egyptian military buildup in the Siani.  Egypt says it is not doing anything beyond security along the Gaza Strip to prevent Palestinians from entering Egypt.

o   This bears watching, and the fact that Israel is keeping this in the public discussion illustrates Israel is concerned.  It’s not likely Egypt will take offensive action against Israel at this time, but that’s the same thought process back in 1967 and 1973…….caution.

- Venezuela:

o   In Mid-August, the U.S. positioned several ships in the S. Caribbean as messaging to Venezuela.  Part of the mission is to support Coast Guard and DEA narcotics interdiction mission.

§  The U.S. conducted several strikes on Drug Cartel boats leaving Venezuela during the month.  This will likely continue as the cartels will look to test the U.S. resolve.

o   Just for your awareness, Venezuelan allies include Cuba, China, Russia and Iran. 

-   U.S. Comment on Returning to Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan.

o   During a trip to London, President Trump made a surprise announcement the U.S. is looking to move back to Bagram air base in Afghanistan. You may recall the U.S. had the tragic – and strategic failure – withdrawal from Afghanistan in Aug 2021. That withdrawal illustrated signs of strategic weakness to our allies and adversaries and also illustrated lack of foresight.

o   While the location’s strategic value – if all diplomatic issues were not considered – is critical, moving back to Bagram faces significant challenges.  Those challenges would be with the Taliban, regional terror groups (AQ and ISIS-K to name just two), logistics, security, and domestic politics in the U.S.

o   Never say never, but this is a major deal to negotiate. 

            CONTINUE TO WATCH

-  Syria: Internal Syrian instability and NEW FIGHTING in the South

o   This continues as an unresolved issue. Sectarian fighting continues and will do so.

o   Tensions remain over last month’s fighting involving the Druze. (See August Newsletter for details and background.)

§  This type of sectarian violence will continue.  Israel will continue to strike first when its security interests are threatened.

o   There was talk of a non-aggression pact between Damascus and several Kurdish tribes in the NE part of Syria.  These Kurds were U.S. allies during the fight against ISIS.  They also are responsible for securing 1,000’s of ISIS fighters, still.  They are also hated by Turkey (Turkey calls them terrorists).

§  Keep an eye on how these talks progress.

o   The Turkey tension may play out more in Syria in the coming weeks/months.

o As we have reported, Syria is a long way from a cohesive and peaceful transition and turning into a viable government/nation. 

-  United States’ Tariffs.  These stay in our ALERTS section because 1) a MAJOR NEW tariff was levied on India because of its trade with Russia.  This is already impacting U.S.-China trade and relations, and it is only a few days old by the start of September. Also, 2) they are still impacting elements of trade between several of our allies, 3) a rush of deals were made at the end of July, and 3) not all tariff deals have been finalized.   

-  North Korea.  We are keeping DPRK to CASIL Alerts this month. The DPRK has been trying to fly under the radar.  However, with KJU attending the PRC military parade in September, I’m keeping the “Hermit Kingdom” on the radar for another month. DPRK did conduct a small missile test in August and there were reports (CASIL hasn’t independently verified) of a newly discovered ICBM launch area in NW DPRK (it wouldn’t be new, just new to intelligence).

MOVED OUT

-       Thailand-Cambodia Fighting

o   Moved from the Alerts area. The cease-fire reached on 29 Jul is holding, but the tensions remain.  This could erupt at any time if either side backs away from the diplomatic and military exchange talks. We will continue to watch this situation, but it will likely drop  this coming month.      

SPECIAL NOTICE(S):

- I want to send a special Thank You to the 9/11 Remembrance audience to which I was fortunate enough to be the key note speaker. What a great group of Americans gathering to honor those who answered the call that tragic day – and for years after.  I was honored to share the stage with several great hero First Responders.  What a great night of honoring the heroes’ memory.

-  We are approaching 7 October – a somber day.  That day has a tragic and fresh memory for Israel  as it was two years ago, Hamas started the war that we see reported on every day.  Hamas invaded and then brutally slaughtered over 1200 innocent Israel men, women and children.  Hamas still holds 48 hostages, of who only ~20 are estimated to remain alive.  Just think for a moment how different the Middle East would be today if Hamas had not started – and prolong – this war.

EVENTS:

- The CCU Center for Applied Intelligence is hosting a night (15 October) at CCU for me to discuss my book – “The Israel-Hamas War; Making The Complex, Comprehensible”.  They have asked  me to discuss the why for the book, my challenges as an author, and some insights for intelligence processes.

-  I will present another world events/situation talk in Myrtle Beach, SC on 27 Oct.

-  I want to thank the folks in Little River, SC for their great response and energetic interest in my World Events discussion on 20 Sep.  Great bunch of concerned citizens. 

Mark S. Chandler