CASIL NOTES - September Newsletter
Enjoy reading CASIL notes on the site or download the brief here.
CASIL NOTES
- COMPLEX TO COMPREHENSIBLE –
ISSUE 6: SEPTEMBER 2025
CASIL Notes provides a synopsis of major events and issues or those with the potential to affect the U.S. and perhaps the world, writ large. The format is simplified for a quick review of where the area of the world is noted, followed by the “Event” with a “Summary” as to possible implications.
SPECIAL NOTICE –
NEW BOOK. I have published a book: “The Israel – Hamas War; Making the Complex, Comprehensible”
- It is a compilation of broadcast and on-line news interviews I did updating and explaining the War. This is a book about war, diplomacy, international relations and global awareness.
- I walk the reader through the interviews, but with the perspective of my 37 years as an intelligence professional.
- It is available in e-book and paperback from Amazon.
Thank you to those who have purchased it, and your positive feedback is greatly appreciated.
MONTHLY SUMMARY: As September begins, we are reminded to remain strategically focused. We are no closer to resolving the Ukraine-Russia War nor the Israel-Hamas War than we were at the beginning of August. We saw several instances of hope, but all dashed for the time being as Russia’s and Hamas’s true colors came blossoming through. Things continue to simmer or boil over - Middle East Turmoil, Ukraine War, and China is pushing a leadership message and assertiveness against its neighbors.
This month’s Newsletter is a rather long summary of global events. Let’s get started
Ukraine – Russia – United States
Event: As we addressed over the past few months, Russia would continue its relentless attacks on Ukraine – it has. During the last week of August, Russia launched two of the largest missile and UAV (drone) attacks against Ukraine – hitting civilian and infrastructure targets. This was surprising to many since Russian President Putin met with U.S. President Trump in Alaska and pretended he was interested in peace. That meeting resulted in a U.S.-Ukraine and European leaders meeting a few days later in Washington. While the meeting in Washington illustrated solidarity and what appears to be a common objective to end the war while establishing some security guarantees to stop Russia’s advances, Russia has balked every step of the way. The result: no peace in Ukraine and no follow-up diplomatic initiative as Russia continues to stall them, while Russian aggression is relentless. Russia is making incremental gains on the ground and will continue that push throughout the remainder of the Summer and Fall. Unfortunately, this level of fighting will continue as Russia desires to gain the military advantage before proceeding with any type of ceasefire negotiations.
CEASE-FIRE/PEACE: We continue to assess, that if there is to be one (which does not look likely soon), it will – without a doubt – be more in Russia’s favor, or Russia (Putin) will not agree. That is why you see the current Russian aggressive military operations. EXPECT MORE to occur.
Summary: As a reminder, Putin is a master manipulator. He will tell you what you want to hear, while all the time working any deal to his/Russia’s advantage. History proves he cannot be trusted. (Refer to June’s Newsletter for more.). And, in the aftermath of the Alaska summit, history has been reinforced.
To stop the fighting, Russia must be made to feel pain – economically – and must face a threat – security related – before it will seriously consider sitting down at the peace table for any sincere talks.
I will also reiterate this statement: A peace deal without security guarantees for Ukraine will only embolden Putin. The outcome will likely be future Russian attacks but not limited to Ukraine. Those are key concerns for the European countries especially those in Eastern and Northern Europe - closest to Russian aggression. History, while not a blueprint for the future, is a good forecaster of Russia’s future aggressive behavior.
NEW RELATED CONCERN: The last several days in August saw old-school naval activity in the Baltic Sea. Russia began flying aircraft and sailing navy ships throughout the Baltic areas – some close to NATO members’ airspace – in a traditional military messaging campaign. This is about a strategic campaign by Russia. Russia is messaging it doesn’t like (we would go as far as saying Russia “fears” it) some countries looking to provide a security guarantee for Ukraine. This activity has led to U.S. and NATO forces responding with air, naval surface and sub-surface (submarines) operating in the area to meet every Russian challenge. This is reminiscent of the Cold War and should continue for a few weeks.
PRC (China)
Event: We are moving PRC up on our priority because it will be in the news a lot in early September. While China continued its assertive activity directed against the Philippines in the contested South China Sea (SCS), (and against Japan and Taiwan), its STRATEGIC MESSAGING is what elevates it this month. Key events to watch:
- China’s President Xi meeting with Indian PM Modi at end of August and beginning of September (They met during the Shanghai Co-operation Organization [SCO]). It’s their first meeting in seven years and they promised to resume cooperation and some commercial air traffic.
o By the way, Putin was also in attendance at the SCO.
o Keep this development in mind as you read about the NEW sanctions the U.S. has levied on India because of trade with Russia.
- On 3 September, China will hold it annual military parade. This is a massive display of military capabilities and weapons. Sometimes, the intelligence community is even surprised when a new weapon it has never seen is showcased. The MAJOR ELEMENT we bring this parade to your attention is the GUEST LIST – Also in attendance will be Russia’s Putin and DPRK’s KJU. Keep an eye out for who else will be attending.
- The Beijing military parade is a significant show of solidarity between three of the United States’ key adversaries. This is their collective way of showing they are not intimidated by the U.S. and China’s way of messaging its ability to create its own sphere of influence to counter the U.S. The SCO meeting with Modi was gravy on top.
Summary: With everything else happening in the world (Ukraine and the Middle East), China has finally decided to come up on the visible radar. China is an excellent player of the “long-game” and this diplomatic show in early September has been planned and calculated for maximum impact and messaging. But it is also not just an empty diplomatic message. China is signaling strength that counters the U.S. diplomatic strength. We must maintain a strategic approach to the Chinese threat. We are seeing increased Chinese messaging both against U.S. (with trade talks in the background -- let’s not forget) and our allies in the region. We expect this trend to continue in the coming months.
Israel- Hamas War
Event: The fighting continues. Israel finally initiated its major military campaign in Northern Gaza. The purpose is to eliminate Hamas and Hamas’s sanctuary in the area. We continue to be in a complex military, political and diplomatic environment surrounding this war and the region. The humanitarian crisis hitting the media in July and early August seems to have subsided as Israel and the U.S. are ensuring tons of humanitarian aid gets into the area (and hopefully keeping Hamas from either looting it or stopping it). As a result of the new IDF operation, the remains to two Israeli male hostages were recovered the last week in August. This leaves 48 hostages in Hamas’s custody with ~20 estimated to be alive (and not in good condition).
Throughout August, there were two points of hope for a ceasefire deal, but Hamas turned down all approaches that threaten to take away their power in Gaza. The basics of those talks remain, Israel wants Hamas to release all hostages, surrender and disarm. Hamas wants Israel to completely stop military operations and fully withdraw from Gaza. Those positions are completely opposite one another. This equates to no deal. Israel will increase its military operational tempo and begin to control more areas of Gaza in the coming weeks.
Summary: Negotiations may start; the fighting will continue. Hamas continues to use the hostages as a strong emotional bargaining chip against Israel. Israel continues to use military force to push Hamas to the negotiating table. Israel’s continued military pressure is having a major negative effect on Hamas, but it still not enough to force Hamas to fully surrender. Unfortunately, Hamas remains emboldened with the international pressure being put on Israel, and Hamas is willing to suffer even more – and make the Palestinian people suffer – before it will agree to a ceasefire. Israel will continue its military campaign.
Houthis
Event: After their increased activity in July, the Houthis remained very active in August. They launched several ballistic missiles against Israel. None were successful in hitting Israeli targets. As a reminder, Iran backs, trains, and supplies the Houthis.
In a major retaliation, Israel conducted airstrikes against the Houthi leadership on 29/30 August and killed the Houthi PM and other key leaders. That is in addition to the previous Israeli attacks that damaged missile and port facilities.
Summary: The Houthis WILL retaliate for the Israeli strike on leadership at the end of August. The Houthis continue to pose a moderate risk to international shipping traffic (~20% of global commercial shipping transits this area), Israel and United States assets in the region. While not a significant military threat, as long as they continue to be resupplied by Iran and have the capability, the Houthis will continue their disruptive behavior and occasionally have catastrophic results.
Iran Nuclear Talks – Where are We?
Event: Recall the June attacks on Iran’s nuclear weapons program facilities. Israel began a major air campaign on 12/13 June that lasted 12 days. The United States then conducted a major airstrike (highly successful) against Iran’s critical nuclear facilities on 22 June. (See JULY NEWSLETTER FOR DETAILS of the attacks and damage to Iran’s nuclear program.)
Summary: What is next? The world keeps looking for some message from Iran that it is willing to cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons. There has been no progress in denuclearization talks. We assess Iran gave those messages when it allowed IAEA inspectors back into the country, but NOT to inspect any nuclear weapon program sites. A second message from Iran includes the threat on the head of the IAEA being provided additional security because of threats from Iran.
During the last part of August, the U.K. Germany and France (so-called Europe-3 or E3) met to discuss the “snap-back” sanctions against Iran. They even tried to get Iran to comply with the old “nuclear deal. Iran refused. Therefore, the “E3” urged the imposition of those “snap-back” sanctions against Iran. The clock is ticking. Iran has until 27 September to agree to all conditions for ceasing its program and allow in inspectors or it will face sever sanctions that could further crush the Iranian economy. What will the Ayatollah and religious leaders do?
NEGOTIATIONS – There still needs to be negotiations. While it has been severely weakened, it has not stopped its belligerence and its ambitions to destabilize the region. The April Special Edition Newsletter contains key details on Iran’s nuclear weapons program and sets up “What A “Good Deal Looks Like”. A holistic and complete deal requires those elements to be met. To confirm those elements, Iran must allow inspectors on the ground at all facilities for verification. Time will tell, and the clock is ticking.
NOTE: Iranian Retaliation Still Possible:
We feel it is important to note that Iran COULD still retaliate against Israel and the United States. Iran suffered a great military defeat and embarrassment – Iran doesn’t take those public defeats lightly.
We would be remiss if we did not warn you of the possible Iranian retaliation. While there is a public ceasefire, Iran is still stinging from the attacks. Iran maintains a long memory. Therefore, you should be aware Iran retaliation could take on many forms – cyber action/attacks against the United States or Israel, using its vast network or proxies and terrorist entities (cells) to attack those same interests wherever they may be (Europe, Middle East, Asia, and even the United States). The more visible retaliation (missiles and drones) will likely be reserved for a resumption in fighting. IF YOU SEE SOMETHING, SAY SOMETHING.
CASIL ALERTS: (Areas to watch)
NEW IN
- Israel-Turkey Tension – A must watch
o At the very end of August Turkey (I’m not using the new spelling) ENDED all trade with Israel and CLOSED its AIRSPACE to Israeli civil air traffic. While these are not military moves, they do show vastly increased tension that has been building throughout the Israel-Hamas War (Turkey supports Hamas.)
o There is tension over Turkey’s support for the new Syrian regime and pushback on Israel’s defensive-offensive operations inside Syria
- Thailand-Cambodia Fighting
o Moved from the CASIL major focus areas. The cease-fire reached on 29 Jul is holding, but the tensions remain. This could erupt at any time if either side backs away from the diplomatic and military exchange talks. We will continue to watch this situation.
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- Venezuela:
o In Mid-August, the U.S. positioned several ships in the S. Caribbean as messaging to Venezuela. Part of the mission is to support Coast Guard and DEA narcotics interdiction mission, but the major part is to signal strength to Venezuelan president Maduro who illegally maintained power in a corrupt election.
— He is not considered (by the current and the last U.S. Administrations) the legitimate leader of Venezuela.
o Just for your awareness, Venezuelan allies include Cuba, China, Russia and Iran.
CONTINUE TO WATCH
- Syria: Internal Syrian instability and NEW FIGHTING in the South
o This continues as an unresolved issue. Sectarian fighting continues and will do so.
o Tensions remain over last month’s fighting involving the Druze. (See August Newsletter for details and background.)
— This type of sectarian violence will continue. Israel will continue to strike first when its security interests are threatened.
o There was talk of a non-aggression pact between Damascus and several Kurdish tribes in the NE part of Syria. These Kurds were U.S. allies during the fight against ISIS. They also are responsible for securing 1,000’s of ISIS fighters, still. They are also hated by Turkey (Turkey calls them terrorists).
— Keep an eye on how these talks progress.
o The Turkey tension may play out more in Syria in the coming weeks/months.
o As we have reported, Syria is a long way from a cohesive and peaceful transition and turning into a viable government/nation.
- United States’ Tariffs. These stay in our ALERTS section because 1) a MAJOR NEW tariff was levied on India because of its trade with Russia. This is already impacting U.S.-China trade and relations, and it is only a few days old by the start of September. Also, 2) they are still impacting elements of trade between several of our allies, 3) a rush of deals were made at the end of July, and 3) not all tariff deals have been finalized.
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- North Korea. We are keeping DPRK to CASIL Alerts this month. The DPRK has been trying to fly under the radar. DPRK did conduct a small missile test in August and there were reports (CASIL hasn’t independently verified) of a newly discovered ICBM launch area in NW DPRK (it wouldn’t be new, just new to intelligence). We are primarily keeping DPRK in CASIL Alerts because of the big meeting KJU is attending with Xi and Putin in early September.
MOVED OUT
- India-Pakistan. Was at the bottom of CASIL ALERTS last month. The ceasefire from May seems to be holding. However, the historical tension between these two adversaries continues to concern us. We are moving it off the Alert Radar – for now.
- The United States-mediated peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda signed on 27 June. It is holding strong, so we are moving it off the Alert Radar.
SPECIAL NOTICE(S):
- Labor Day is on the 1st this year. Enjoy your day and your freedoms and thank you to those who will be working on this day designated to honor the American Worker.
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- Remember 9/11. What a somber remembrance of that fateful day 24 years ago when the United States was viciously attacked by al-Qaeda terrorists. Take a few moments to publicly or privately remember those killed and those first responders who, without hesitation, valiantly performed their jobs to save as many as possible. Also, remember those who were subsequently thrust into combat against an enemy with no regard for human life (an enemy that is still active today). My charge to intelligence professionals and our leaders – remain vigilant and keep an eye on even the subtle indicators that there are people who still mean to do us harm.
EVENTS:
- I had a book review published in “The Middle East Journal”, Vol 78 – 2-3 Winter Spring 2025. I reviewed “The Hamas Intelligence War Against Israel”. If you’re interested in the Middle East or intelligence, I encourage you to read the review AND the book.
- I had a great time speaking to the Florence, SC Rotary Club about the global situation and concerns for U.S. security interests. Great group of people and very engaging discussions.
- I have a similar discussion slated in Little River, SC on 20 Sep.
Mark S. Chandler